1. Planning for Autonomous Vehicles AMPO Annual Conference, October 2016
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Presented by Mike Wallace, Fehr & Peers
Research Lead by Kevin Johnson, Fehr & Peers
AMPO Annual Conference, October 2016

2. next generation vehicles
Looked at autonomous and connected vehicles and their impact on how we think about transportation projects
Next generation vehicles include on-demand ride services, autonomous and connected vehicles, and driverless vehicles, some of whom are beginning to look more like cars.
Focusing today on autonomous vehicles but findings can be applied to all next generation vehicles

3. roadmap Why we did this? What we did and findings?
How to include in planning?
We’d like to provide you with a roadmap for today’s session:
I will discuss FP Think history, trends, TrendLab+ and hopefully the results of the poll you take later in the session
We’ll then have more focused discussion on the identified topics
Lastly, we’ll conduct a Live Poll to crowdsource the groups opinions on the factors that we’ve discussed and have shifted after the presentation and group discussions
I will tabulate and share results of the Live Poll

4. why
WE DID THIS
“Very smart people have very different opinions on the pace of implementation, market acceptance, and impacts of technology in transportation. But, folks are hungry for answers, and in the absence of information speculation is running rampant” Steven Polzin, University of South Florida
Findings serve to enhance our discussions about the foreseeable effects of autonomous vehicles
Reduce speculation

5. why Range of uncertainty WE DID THIS
Findings serve to enhance our discussions about the foreseeable effects of autonomous vehicles
Reduce speculation

6. why
WE DID THIS
Moving beyond opinions. Can we continue to estimate travel behavior with the tools we have when self-driving vehicles are ubiquitous?
Not our opinion, based on data from model tests we performed

7. why WE DID THIS Gauge sensitive our current tools
Evaluate uncertainty and make informed decisions
We’d like to provide you with a roadmap for today’s session:
I will discuss FP Think history, trends, TrendLab+ and hopefully the results of the poll you take later in the session
We’ll then have more focused discussion on the identified topics
Lastly, we’ll conduct a Live Poll to crowdsource the groups opinions on the factors that we’ve discussed and have shifted after the presentation and group discussions
I will tabulate and share results of the Live Poll

8. what Tested 6 models, 1 underway Performed six tests + cumulative test
WE DID
Tested 6 models, 1 underway
Performed six tests + cumulative test
We’d like to provide you with a roadmap for today’s session:
I will discuss FP Think history, trends, TrendLab+ and hopefully the results of the poll you take later in the session
We’ll then have more focused discussion on the identified topics
Lastly, we’ll conduct a Live Poll to crowdsource the groups opinions on the factors that we’ve discussed and have shifted after the presentation and group discussions
I will tabulate and share results of the Live Poll

9. what
We Assumed
Assumed Level 4, 100% fleet mix

10. what Increased household auto availability
We thought would happen
Increased household auto availability
Some transit-dependent shift to auto
Increased discretionary trip making
Big increase in auto and transit trips
Decreased value of time
Big shift to auto, willing to travel much longer distances
Decreased access time
Some shift to auto, willing to travel slightly longer distances
Decreased parking costs
Some shift to auto
Increased freeway capacity
Some shift to auto, willing to travel much longer distances

11. what
Happened

12. what Happened Cumulative effect of all six tests:
12% to 68% increase in VMT
2% to 16% increase in vehicle trips
43% decrease to 16% increase in transit trips
Comparison to other research:
Study from University of Leeds projected as much as a 60% increase in VMT
Study by the Atlanta Regional Commission predicted a decrease in public transit trips by as much as 42%

13. what
DO WE DO NEXT
Adoption rates

14. what Additional Tests Decrease auto operating cost
DO WE DO NEXT
Additional Tests
Decrease auto operating cost
Increase auto occupancy
Safety and reliability
Freight

15. what AV operating cost per mile ($0.15 to $1) DO WE DO NEXT

16. how
Planning Context
Start incorporating into current projects

17. Countywide Multimodal Arterial Plan Francisco Martin, Fehr & Peers
Improving multimodal mobility for better economic, health and environmental outcomes
Francisco Martin, Fehr & Peers
Kyle Shipley, Fehr & Peers
David Wasserman, Fehr & Peers

18. ARTERIAL ROADWAYS Essential to Alameda County:
Regional access to state highway system
Multimodal access within and around communities and employment centers
Supports community’s economic development

19. SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSIS SCENARIOS
Social and behavioral trends scenario – anticipates lower per capita auto ownership and VMT rates, based on recent trends. Assumes 5 to 10% decrease in traffic volumes compared to standard forecasting approach. Next generation vehicle scenario – anticipates an increase in roadway capacity as a result of autonomous and connected vehicles. Assumes 20% increase in arterial capacity.

20. NEXT GENERATION VEHICLE RESULTS
Travel Reliability Increased – auto and transit reliability increased due to increased capacity. Smoother traffic speeds – auto speeds increased and became more stable due to capacity and fewer collisions.

21. GIS TOOL Assess multimodal performance
Perform needs assessment evaluation
Quantify available right-of-away that could be repurposed for improvements
Identify multimodal improvements
Integrates with CityEngine 3-D visualization software

22. conclusions Future is uncertain and inevitably different
Current tools are available
Now is the time to start planning

23. questions? AMPO Annual Conference, October 2016 Future trends:
Mike Wallace, Director of Travel Behavior & Forecasting
Kevin Johnson, Senior Transportation Planner
AMPO Annual Conference, October 2016
Future trends:
AV specifically: