1. Transport Emission Inventories & Projections
Presentation to Transport Statistics Liaison Group
21st June 2016

2. Greenhouse gas inventories

3. National GHG Emissions: Inter-Annual Change
2014: MtCO2 eq

4. GHG Sectoral Contributions

5. GHG Emission Trends A C D B E F A B C D E F

6. Transport GHG emissions 1990-2014
+180%
Overall emissions in 2014 are 121% above 1990 levels

7. Drivers in Transport – Passenger Cars
Diesel cars 36.7%
Diesel cars 6.6%

8. Road Transport - share of emissions

9. Greenhouse gas projections

10. EU Effort Sharing Decision – Distance to Target
Expect to exceed non-ETS annual limit in 2016/2017

11. Projected cumulative distance to Target for Non-ETS Sector 2013-2020

12. Sectoral share – non ETS

13. Energy related sectors - Energy Forecasts
Key macro-economic assumptions
2012 – 2015
2016 – 2020
Average Annual % Growth
GDP
+2.5%
+4.6%
+2.6%
+1.3%
+1.2%
GNP
+3.8%
+3.6%
+3.4%
+2.9%
Personal Consumption
0.4%
+4.4%
Annual Average
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Population (‘000)
4,647
4,837
5,010
5,162
5,314
Housing stock (‘000)
1,992
2,062
2,173
2,290
2,412
EUETS: Carbon €2010/tCO2 7 10 14 35 57
Carbon tax €2010/tCO2 20
Coal $2010/boe
16.4
20.1
23.7
27.6
31.6
Oil $2010/boe
93.6
98.9
124.3
154.2
188.4
Gas $2010/boe
50.8
49.3
58.7
62.5
Peat €/MWh 25
ESRI’s October 2014 Quarterly Economic Commentary
Coal, oil and gas prices – DECC
Carbon price – European Commission

14. Energy demand – Sectoral Trends
Solid line = With measures scenario Dashed line = With Additional Measures scenario

15. Transport and Agriculture emissions

16. Sectoral trends and decoupling - Projections

17. EU 2050 Low-carbon Economy Roadmap

18. Summary
Will likely not meet 2020 targets (even under cumulative mechanism & with additional measures)
Some evidence of breaking the link between growth and emissions in electricity generation
However, economic recovery evident in emissions from transport and certain industrial sectors – increases the challenge
Significant challenge to meet EU2030 and National 2050 targets

19. Questions?