1. David E. Rosenberg Steve Burian
Managing Water in the Shared Jordan River Basin HydroEconomics, Engineering, Environment, Drought & Politics
David E. Rosenberg
Steve Burian

2. Learning Objectives Differentiate water value from quantity
Maximize value
Describe major features of the Jordan River basin
Identify effects of drought on water value
Use shadow value results to suggest new programs & infrastructure
Recommend how to restore the Dead Sea
Learning Objectives
Lebanon
Syria
Palestine
(West Bank)
Pal.
(Gaza)
Jordan
Israel
Red Sea
SAUDI ARABIA
EGYPT
IRAN
PAL.
Egypt

3. Economic Principles
“Water is a scarce resource. Scarce resources have value.” Gideon Fishelson
Desalinating seawater (plus conveying from the seacoast) puts an upper bound on the value of water in dispute
Think about water values not quantities
Maximize this value

4. Maximizing value Water allocation decisions Benefits from use Costs
Amount, where, when, and to which users
Benefits from use
Users:
Location and time
Costs
Limitations on allocations
Physical:
Policy: min. requirements, set-asides, pricing, etc.

5. Maximize net welfare Price ($/unit) Quantity (units) Demand Curve
Cost function P* Q*

6. Maximize net benefits (equation form)
Quantity (units)
Price ($/unit)
Cost function
C(Q)
Demand Curve
P(Q) = β (∑qQq)α P* Q*
Net Benefits =
Area under Demand Curve – Area under Cost Curve

7. Infrastructure, Management and Policy Constraints
minls ≤ Local sourcels ≤ maxls, V ls
mini ≤ Importi ≤ maxi , V i
mintww ≤ Treated wastewatertww ≤ maxtww, V tww
minu ≤ Useu ≤ maxu, V u
minsa ≤ Setasidesa ≤ maxsa, V sa
and others!!
~ 13,600 equations
~ 48,000 decision variables
Above: Zara-Ma’een pipes now deliver up to 47.5 MCM/year

8. The Middle East Water Project
Application
The Middle East Water Project
Middle ground: Outlet to the Dead Sea, Jordan (400 meters below sea level)
Background: Jerusalem Hills, Israel (800 meters above sea level)

9. Hydrology Rainfall Water Resources
Jordan
Israel
Amman
Ma’an
Aqaba
Zarka
Irbid km
100 mm/yr
500
900
Jerusalem
Haifa
Hebron
Eilat
Rainfall
i.e, 2 –35 in/year (EXACT, USGS, 1999)
Pal.
Water Resources

10. Surface Waters (approximately 1,324 MCM per year)
3. Wadi Zarka (97 Mcm )
1. Lower Jordan River (< 100 Mcm)
2. Yarkon River
4. Wadi Mujib (35 Mcm )

11. Groundwater Total: ~ 950mcm/year Mountain aquifers:
Northeastern: ~145mcm/year
Western: ~360mcm/year
Eastern: ~172mcm/year
12 aquifers in Jordan (mostly Yarmuk and Zarqa): ~270mcm/year
Total:
~ 950mcm/year

12. Groundwater Total: ~ 950mcm/year Mountain aquifers:
Lebanon
Groundwater
Syria
Mountain aquifers:
Palestine
(West Bank)
Northeastern: ~145mcm/year
Western: ~360mcm/year
Eastern: ~172mcm/year
Pal.
(Gaza)
12 aquifers in Jordan ~270mcm/year
Israel
Total:
~ 950mcm/year
Egypt
Jordan

13. Demographics Top: Amman, Jordan (2.2 million)
Left: Hebron, West Bank (0.8 million)
Below: Haifa, Israel (0.8 million)

14. Infrastructure Jordan Israel Galilee (500 MCM storage)
Amman km
100 mm/yr
500
900
Galilee (500 MCM storage)
National water carrier
(Israel, MCM)
King Abdullah Canal (Jordan,
100–120 MCM)
Unity Dam (Jordan,
110/10 MCM capacity/use)
Zara-Ma’een (Jordan, 50 MCM)
Disi Conveyor (Jordan, <150
MCM)
Red Sea-Dead Sea Project (Jordan, Israel, Palestine, 850 MCM)

15. Some Water-Related History
Ottoman Empire falls & start of British Mandate
State of Israel
Johnson Mediations
Middle East War
nd Middle East War
st Intifada
Oslo Accords
Israel – Jordan Peace
nd Intifada
Right: Hijazi railroad bridge across the Yarmuk River bombed during 1967 war

16. Current issues
Contested water rights (Mountain Aquifer, 600 MCM, and lower Jordan River).
Role for water conservation
Water resources to support future population growth & environmental needs?
Share or build private desalination plants?
Links to other disputes over land, security, partitioning Jerusalem, and right for Palestinian refugees to return.

17. Water Allocation System (WAS) Model
45 districts
Conveyance capacity
Freshwater
Recycled water
Left: Date palm farm near Arava, Israel warning not to drink the reclaimed water

18. Model Use It’s complicated Experiment with choices
You may not fully understand implications of your inputs
Experiment with choices
Interact with model
The model does not “make” water policy
Rather
You impose policies
Model respects these policies absolutely
Model shows how to efficiently implement policies and policy consequences

19. Model Outputs Demand served to each use in each district
Water transfers
Shadow value / scarcity rent for water in each district
Benefits to add/expand infrastructure
Gains from trading water & money

20. More on shadow values
Price buyers will pay (or producers will charge) for 1 more unit
Associated with each model mass conservation constraint
Marginal cost
Model output
Amount objective fxn. will increase if relax a binding constraint by one unit
Shadow price
Depends on availabilities, demands, and policies input by user

21. Activity #1: Where to desalinate on the Israeli coast?
Respond at:

22. Activity #2: Where to desalinate on the Israeli coast with 30% supply drop?

23. Activity #3: Where to target water conservation programs in Jordan?
With programs No conservation

24. Overall net benefits for Jordan in 2020

25. Raise the Dead [Sea]? 30 m drop since 1960 33% decline surface area
Problems
Sink holes
GW contamination
Reduced tourism
Decreased mineral extraction
100 MCM/year to Sea
Need 1,000 MCM/year

26. Red Sea-Dead Sea Project Proposal
Jordan, Israel, & Palestinian proposal
180 km long
Facilities
Intake at Aqaba/Eilat
Hydropower generation
Desalination
Pump to Amman
Costs
$US 5 billion capital
$US 1.2/m3 operational
World Bank now assessing feasibility

27. Change in system-wide expected costs when more water goes to Dead Sea

28. Activity #4: Choose a country
Activity #4: Choose a country. What alternative will your country prefer? Why?

29. Conclusions Allocate water by value not quantity
Separate water ownership from water use
Separation allows transfers of water and money
Monetize and de-emotionalize water conflicts
The value of waters in dispute by Palestinians and Israelis is small
Water should not be a cause for war
Water conservation can generate substantial national and regional benefits
Infrastructure alone will not raise the Dead
Droughts can change things

30. Postscript
10+ year collaboration by Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian, American, and Dutch scientists
Separate participation by each government
Water not included in the Geneva Accord
Continuing work on multi-year model with reservoir storage
Activity #5. Jordan continues to pursue the Red-Dead project. Why?

31. References
Fisher et al. (2002). Water Resources Research 38(11), 1243, doi: /2001. Fisher et al. (2005). “Liquid Assets…” (Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.). Rosenberg et al. (2008) Water Resources Research 44, W11402, doi: /2007WR Rosenberg (2011). "Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, , doi: /hess

32. Shadow values are spatially related
District 1
District 2
CC12 From District 1 to District 2
Interpretation:
Build conveyance when difference in shadow values between districts is larger than conveyance cost
Build a desalination plant when shadow value in district on a seacoast is greater than desal. cost