1. Opportunity Cost/Time Value of Money
Opportunity cost -- value forgone by doing something else. Example:
Suppose a bank would pay 3.5%/year but you decide to keep $10,000 in your mattress. Opportunity cost of keeping in mattress is $_____ /yr.
Time value of money -- because of “time preference ffffor consumption”
There is a time value of money even if no inflation. Inflation just makes it more pronounced.

2. Future Value and Present Value
Let
where
r is the amount of interest per period
n is the number of compounding periods
Compounding period can be: day, month, quarter, semi-annually, year, etc.

3. Legend has it that Lenape Indians sold Manhattan Island to the Dutch for $24 in 1626.

4. $24 compounded over 390 years
Example 1
If the Lenape could have invested the $24 at X%, how much would they have today?
$24 compounded over 390 years
Excel formula for monthly at 6% : =24*( /12)^(12*390)

5. Example 2
How much should US Treasury charge for a 10-year $5,000 Savings Bond if it pays at the rate of 4.2%/yr, interest compounded annually?
How much should US Treasury charge for the same bond if it pays at the rate of 4.2%/yr, interest compounded semi-annually?

6. Annuities
When same amount is paid at end of each period, with first payment one period from now, the series is an ordinary annuity whose PV is given by
where A = amount of each payment
r = discount rate per period
n = total number of periods (n must be integer when using this formula)
An annuity due is different, it is when first payment is now.

7. Example 3
Suppose an investor receives $10,000 on this date for the next 8 years, with first payment one year from now. Assume 9% per annum is the appropriate discount rate. What is the PV of this annuity?
10/11

8. Example 4
You win $1 million lottery (annuitized, $50,000/yr for 20 payments, first now). How much will you bring home if you select lump sum? Assume 6% per annum discount rate.

9. What is a Bond? Bond is a loan you can buy.
Borrower (issuer) promises to make periodic payments (called coupon payments) to bondholder over a given number of years.
At maturity, bondholder receives last coupon payment and principal (face value or par value).
Coupon payments are determined by the coupon rate.
Coupon rates are specified as a percentage of par.

10. Typical Bond Quote Example: Baa2 Valero Energy 6.625% ’37 88.250 7.652
where
Baa rating
6.625% coupon rate (most likely paid in two installments)
’ year of maturity
price as a percent of par
7.652% yield-to-maturity
Treasury and corporate bonds typically make coupon payments twice per year (semiannually).
MBSs and ABSs, typically twelve times a year (monthly).

11. How to Compute the PB of a Bond.
Compute the PV of each of the bond’s cash flows and sum.
Discount rate is ascertained from yields on similar bonds. (discount rate and coupon rate are not to be confused).
If price of bond (PB) is below face value, called a discount bond. If above face value, called a premium bond.

12. Bond Pricing Notation C = amount of each coupon payment
r = appropriate discount rate per period
n = total number of periods
F = principal, face value, par
When first coupon payment is one period from now, this is formula

13. Example 5 (Time Line Way)
What is the PB of a $1,000 bond that has just made a coupon payment, has 2 years to maturity, pays interest semiannually, and has a coupon rate of 6%? Assume is rarely traded, but similar bonds yield 7%.

14. Example 5 (Using Annuity Formula)
What is the PB of a $1,000 bond that has just made a coupon payment, has 2 years to maturity, pays interest semiannually, and has a coupon rate of 6%? Assume is rarely traded, but similar bonds yield 7%.
What would $150 million in face value of these bonds cost?

15. US IPO Volume
$18.8 in 2016

16. Outstanding US MM & Bond Market Debt
(2015 in trillions)
Outstanding
Issuance
Ave Daily Trading Volume
Municipal
3.777
0.294
0.010
US Treasury
13.192
1.421
0.501
Mortgage Related
8.720
1.180
0.205
Corporate
8.172
1.082
0.027
Agency Securities
1.995
0.354
0.005
Asset-Backed
1.394
0.193
0.001
Money Market
2.807
n/a
TOTAL
40.057
4.524 -
AVERAGE
0.748
Total marketcap of all listed US stocks ≈ trillion
2015 US IPO volume = trillion
Ave daily US stock trading volume (all exchanges) ≈ 5 billion shares
10/13

17. Example 6 From the table, approximately:
How many times does US Treasury debt turnover per year?
How many times does US Corporate debt turnover per year?
What’s ave time to maturity of mortgage related debt?

18. Example 7: Zero Coupon Bond
Since there is no C, customary formula is
where n is double the number of years.
Do semiannual compounding when pricing a zero coupon bond.
What is price of a $1,000 zero coupon bond that matures in 15 years if it is to yield 9.4%?

19. Example 8
As of today, what is the value of a $5, % bond (coupon payments made semi-annually) that matures 5 months from now assuming yield to use is 5.8%?

20. Fixed Income Securities
Fixed income securities – pay a return according to a fixed formula. Although payment amounts can vary, formula is known in advance.
Fixed income securities generally carry lower returns because of their guaranteed income characteristics.
Generally used by people for income purposes rather than for capital appreciation (as in stock market).

21. Example 9: A Distressed Bond
A company trying to emerge from bankruptcy arranges with the holders of its 8.0% bonds (par $1,000) that mature on July 1, 2022 the following:
coupon payments will restart on 1/1/18 but at half the coupon rate.
will pay full rate starting on 1/1/20 until bond matures.
For what value should this bond be listed on a 10/15/16 balance sheet if discount rate to apply is 10%?

22. Example 10: Accrued Interest
Clean price, Dirty price. Full price also known as “dirty price”.
Clean Price = Full Price – Accrued Interest
Accrued Interest =
days since last coupon payment
coupon payment x
days in coupon period
What is accrued interest on a 5% $1000 bond if 181 days in coupon period and last coupon payment was 136 days ago?

23. What is one day’s accrued interest on this purchase?
Example 12: Full Price
Suppose an 8% $1,000 bond (next semi-annual coupon payment on Feb 14, 2017) is quoted in the media at As of 10/13/16, how much would 2000 of them cost? Assume 184 days in coupon period.
What is one day’s accrued interest on this purchase? 23

24. Cut-off for the Quiz 24

25. Price-Time to Maturity Relationship
When bond’s yield differs from coupon rate, price of bond moves toward par as time to maturity decreases. 20
850.61 18
855.01 16
860.52 14
867.44 12
876.11 10
887.00 8
900.65 6
917.77 4
939.25 2
966.20

26. Convexity of Price-Yield Curve
Bond prices goes up if its yield goes down, and vice versa. “Bowed” shape of curve is known as convexity.
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.11
920.37
0.12
850.61
0.13
789.26
0.14
735.07
0.15
687.03
0.16
644.27

27. Price-Yield Relationship

28. Risks Faced by Holder of a Bond
Credit or default risk.
Interest rate risk. Two components:
Reinvestment risk (chance lender will not be able to reinvest coupon payments at yield-to-maturity in effect at time instrument was purchased)
Price risk (chance interest rates will change thereby affecting price of the bond)
a) and b) offset one another.
Duration is the number of years from now at which a) and b) exactly counterbalance one another. 28

29. Duration
Duration is given by a time-weighted average of a bond’s discounted cash flows over price of bond. Formula for duration is
D is expressed in years.

30. Example 14
Assume 1-yr clock. With 4 years to maturity and annual coupon payments, what are the durations of
(4% coupon rate, 5% required yield)?
(4% coupon rate, 10% required yield)?
(8% coupon rate, 10% required yield)?

31. Duration Properties
D is sum of discounted time-weighted cashflows divided by PB (with time measured in years)
Higher coupon rates mean shorter duration
D of a zero coupon bond is time to maturity.
The greater the required yield, the less the duration.
Longer maturities generally mean longer durations.

32. Example 15: Bond Price Volatility
In the following, i is yield in percent per year
Consider a 20-year, 5% bond (annual payments) yielding 4.5% whose D = If interest rates change causing yield to rise 75 basis points, what happens to price of bond?
Correcting for convexity, actual change in price of bond is a little less (next slide).

33. Example 16: Portfolio Duration:
Assume $4,000 in D = 5, $10,000 in D = 7, and $6,000 in D = 9 bonds. What is Portfolio D?

34. Cut-off for the Exam Be sure to know the seven categories of US MM &
Bond Market debt from slide 17. 34