1. Variant Population Projections: Town Planning Perspective
Dominick Veasey, Associate Director
27 March 2017

2. The growing housing crisis
245,000 new homes per annum between 2007 and 2016
(Labour Government)
“By the end of this Parliament [2020], success I think would mean that we have seen a build in total of something like a million homes”
Brandon Lewis MP (Previous Planning Minister)
To meet housing demand and address previous years undersupply we need to deliver 300,000 new homes per annum
House of Lords Economic Affairs Select Committee

3. National Planning Policy Framework
“To boost significantly the supply of housing…”
… ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area...”
(paragraph 47)
Local Plan’s typically cover a year time period

4. Housing market areas Planning geography complexities:
“…assess development needs working with other local authorities in the relevant housing market area….
(PPG:ID: 2a-007,
NPPF: Paragraph 47 )
Neighbourhood Planning

6. National Planning Practice Guidance
National projections are the ‘starting-point’
(ID: 2a-015)
But
Plan makers may consider sensitivity testing, specific to local circumstances, based on alternative assumptions in relation to the underlying demographic projections…
(ID: 2a-017)

7. Local Circumstances One off events within past 5-years: Housing
Economic change / shocks
Demographic structural change
Persistent under delivery of housing:
Lack of a Local Plan
Political resistance
Other barriers

8. Data Quality Concerns ‘The Pre 2011 period’
“The thorny issue of Unattributable Population Change”
(Arun Local Plan Inspector)
Full, partial or no adjustment?
But an annually reducing factor, at least until 2021!

9. Data Quality Concerns ‘The post 2011 period’
Continued concerns over MYE’s
Use of alternative population data sources
MYE Quality Assurance Pack:
Patient register
School census
State pension

10. Variant Projection Scenarios
Local Circumstances
Variant Projection Scenarios
Birth and death rate adjustments
Migration adjustments:
Length of trend period
UPC adjustment
Rates of count based?

11. Economic Adjustments
“…Where the supply of working age population that is economically active is less than projected job growth, this could result in unsustainable commuting and could reduce the resilience of local businesses…”
PPG: ID:2a-018
A migration adjustment
Caution needed over economic volatility

12. ONS variant projection wish list
Three areas to focus on:
Migration
Keep things simple:
Release a long term (10-year) migration trend variant projection alongside the existing SNPP.

13. Dominick Veasey Associate Director E: d.veasey@nexusplanning.co.uk
Weybridge | London | Manchester
Dominick Veasey
Associate Director E: T: M: