1. Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool
Crystal Goodison, Associate Director
Reginald Pierre-Jean, Geospatial Software Developer
University of Florida GeoPlan Center
Coastal Resiliency Tools Buffet
October 26, 2016

2. Roadmap for Presentation
9:30am – 10:30am
Background
Methods & Overview of Tool Components
Case Studies
Continuing Work (Storm Surge Modeling & Tool Development)
Demo of Map Viewer
10:30am – 10:45am – Break/ Stretch/ Coffee
10:45am – noon – Map Viewer Exercises (in groups)

3. Sketch Tool: Purpose and Intent
A starting place to assess potential impacts of sea level rise on the transportation system
Map where and when sea level rise is projected to occur in Florida
Use local tide gauge data to develop regional projections of sea level rise
Develop a planning-level tool for quick assessment of potential transportation impacts under various SLR scenarios

4. FDOT’s SLR Research FAU’s Research Report (completed Jan 2012)
Comprehensive analysis of SLR projections, studies, models and methodologies used in Florida. Resulting recommendations:
(1) Apply U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) methodology to develop statewide and regional projections of SLR
(2) Develop a sketch planning tool to identify potentially vulnerable infrastructure
UF GeoPlan Center Research
Implement FAU recommendations
Phase 1: Feb Oct 2013, Phase 2: Dec 2013 –October 2015, Phase 3: Jan 2016 – April 2017

5. SKETCH TOOL Phase 1 Goals
Map Inundation: Map where & when inundation is projected to occur in Florida. Use USACE methods to develop statewide and regional sea level change projections by decade
Develop GIS planning tool to facilitate identification of transportation infrastructure potentially at risk to projected sea level changes.

6. Project Team Florida Department of Transportation,
Office of Policy Planning
Maria Cahill, Project Manager
University of Florida GeoPlan Center
Crystal Goodison, Principle Investigator – Phase 2 & 3
Alexis Thomas, Principle Investigator – Phase 1
Russell Watkins, Ph.D, Co-PI – Phase 1
Reginald Pierre-Jean, Software Developer
Katherine Norris, GIS Analyst
Sam Palmer, GIS Analyst
Daniel Downing, Web GIS Specialist
Lance Barbour, Systems Administrator

7. METHODS & OVERVIEW OF TOOL

8. Mapping SLR: Data Inputs & Methods
Tide Gauge Data & Sea Level Trends
Local trend data and water levels
Elevation Data
USACE Sea Level Change Projections
Future scenarios of SLR. How fast will SLR and when? Use local data for projections
High resolution, Lidar- based Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

9. USACE Sea Level Change Projections
2100
5.08 ft
2060
6 – 27 in
22 in
9 in
2030 in

10. NOAA/ NATIONAL Climate ASSESSMENT Projections

11. Why DO WE NEED SO MANY PROJECTIONS?
UNCERTAINTY!
LOW/ HISTORIC
Applicable when designing low risk projects
Easily replaceable infrastructure with short design lives
Not critical infrastructure/ Limited interdependencies with other infrastructure
INTERMEDIATE
Applicable to projects with short –to-mid term planning horizon
HIGH CURVE
High risk projects constructed in longer time frames (many decades out)
Critical infrastructure for services and connectivity
Not easily replaceable
Long design life

12. Mapping SLR Inundation: Output Data Layers
Hundreds of GIS layers, each representing a SLR Scenario:
Where Scenario =
Region, Year, Projection, Tidal Datum
Region: statewide or for FDOT District
Year: decadal intervals, 2040 – 2100
USACE Projection: (1) low/ historic, (2) intermediate (3) high
Tidal Datums: MHHW, MSL
Model output: Bathtub and hydro-connected inundation

13. SLR Inundation Data Layers
Subset of Old Tampa Bay area Clearwater Beach Tide Gauge 2060, High Curve, MHW 1-meter inundation
Bathtub Inundation
Inundation with Hydro-
connectivity filter

14. Potentially Affected Transportation Infrastructure
Intersected inundation layers with transportation layers: roadways, rails, rail freight connectors, SIS airports, SIS sea ports
Focus on State owned facilities
Outputs: GIS layers identifying potentially at-risk transportation facilities w/ approximate miles or area affected/ inundated

15. UF GeoPlan Phase 1 Goals
Map Inundation: Map where & when inundation is projected to occur in Florida. Use USACE methods to develop statewide and regional sea level change projections by decade
Develop GIS planning tool to facilitate identification of transportation infrastructure potentially at risk to projected sea level changes.

16. Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool
Map Viewer
Visualize areas of inundation and affected infrastructure
Low technical expertise needed, no GIS software needed
GIS Data Layers
SLR Inundation Surfaces & Affected Infrastructure layers
GIS Software and intermediate GIS expertise needed
SLR Inundation
Surface Calculator
Create custom inundation layers
Intermediate/ Advanced technical/ GIS expertise needed

17. VIEW AFFECTED TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
Tampa Bay, 2080, High Projection
View transportation facilities potentially exposed to inundation various SLR scenarios.
Available transportation layers by
scenario

18. VIEW AFFECTED TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
Bayshore Blvd, Downtown Tampa
View details about affected facilities/ infrastructure under various SLR scenarios

19. New Map Viewer

20. SLR INUNDATION SURFACE CALCULATOR
ArcMap Add-in
Inputs:
NOAA tide gauge data
USACE curve
Year (by decade )
Tidal Datum
DEM
Outputs
Bathtub model
Hydro-connectivity filter
Vector & Raster formats
Currently supported on
ArcMap 10.1, ,
Requires Spatial Analyst

22. CASE STUDIES: APPLICATIONS OF THE TOOL

23. Sketch Tool – WHY AND HOW TO USE IT?
Uses (to name a few…):
Evaluate regional SLR scenarios and impacts to transportation over time
Identify a broad timeline for tipping points (when do SLR impacts get really bad?)
Match timing of impacts with planning horizons
Match timing of impacts with type of infrastructure improvements/ investments
Engage community in discussion
Utilize information to prioritize transportation improvements
Analyze evacuation routes for susceptibility to permanent inundation
Use base GIS layers of inundation for community vulnerability assessments
Target Audience/ Users
MPOs, RPCs, counties & municipalities doing regional level community resilience planning

24. Sketch Tool: NOT Intended FOR
Not to be used for site specific analyses or site design.
Not specific to a year. Projections are by decade.
Not intended to be used for stormwater or drainage design.
Does not include assessment impacts of SLR on groundwater.
Not to be used for property assessment/ evaluation.

25. Phase 2: Testing the Tools
Hillsborough Metropolitan Planning Organization Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Climate Change Resilience Pilot
Southeast Florida FHWA Climate Change Resilience Pilot
City of Satellite Beach Vulnerability Assessment
Monroe County Vulnerability Assessment
Sarasota County – Assessment of Critical Infrastructure

26. Case Studies: Testing the Tools
Hillsborough Metropolitan Planning Organization FHWA Climate Change Resilience Pilot
Used Sketch Tool map viewer, GIS data, geo-processing scripts to facilitate overlays of critical infrastructure analysis of storm surge and flooding.

27. Case Studies: Testing the Tools
Southeast Florida FHWA Climate Change Resilience Pilot
4 County Study Area: Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, Monroe. Led by Broward MPO.
Used Sketch Tool SLR scenarios, GIS data, created custom bridge elevation data, reviewed and researched storm surge modeling.

28. Case Studies City of Satellite Beach Monroe County Sarasota County
ECFRPC used Sketch Tool GIS data & SLR Calculator in vulnerability assessment.
Monroe County
Evaluated county transportation facilities potentially inundated under various SLR scenarios, Dr. Jason Evans, Stetson Univ.
Sarasota County
County staff used ArcMap SLR Calculator to generate scenarios & analyze critical facilities.

29. Phase 2 FEEDBACK What about Storm Surge? What about Flooding?
SLR will increase surge extent/ depth of flooding/ intensity of damage
What about Flooding?
“Nuisance Flooding”: SLR is causing an increase in flooding frequency in coastal communities from heavy rain during high tide conditions
“Sunny Day Flooding”/ “King Tides”: During high tide conditions (but not rain) SLR is causing flooding
What about NOAA curves?
Higher projected SLR than USACE (2m SLR by 2100 vs 1.5m for USACE)
Update user interface/ design of map viewer

30. CONTINUING WORK

31. Continuing Work: Phase 3 (2016-17)
Tool Enhancements:
Map Viewer – major update and modernization
SLR Calculator – new version w/ increased functionality
Data Enhancements
Re-run of inundation layers with latest elevation data
Add NOAA SLR Projections
Model updates – tidal surfaces from NOAA
Update analysis of affected transportation facilities
Look at multiple flood risks along transportation facility:
SLR will exacerbate storm surge and flood events
Look at current & future flood risk + SLR (Hazus Pilot: Resilient Volusia)

32. Continuing Work: TOOL Training
Technical Training for Planning Professionals
Regional Planning Councils
2016: RPCs “Train the Trainers”
Metropolitan Planning Organizations
: Training with MPOs on how to use the new tool components for assessing vulnerable infrastructure.
Developing training now, offer training in Spring/ Summer 2017.
Profiles of vulnerable assets (summary report for quicker ingest).
We will travel to you!

33. STORM SURGE MODELING

34. STORM SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISE
Sea level rise (SLR) is expected to exacerbate coastal flooding events, increasing the extent and depth of flooding as well as the intensity of damage from storms.
Current flood prone areas will flood more frequently.
Estimated that a current 100-year magnitude surge could occur every 20 years under 2050 sea level rise scenario (Tebaldi et al ).

35. Storm Surge MODELING GOALS
How do we model future coastal flood risk under SLR scenarios?
Estimate the depth and extent of coastal flooding under future SLR conditions and assess those impacts to the transportation network.
Use Existing Models. Do not re-invent the wheel.
Examples: SLOSH, FEMA Hazus-MH.
A modeling method that was replicable for most coastal areas in the state and applicable to planning-level analyses

36. Hazus-MH STORM SURGE MODELING APPROACHES
Modeling work led by Dr. Paul Zwick, Professor of Urban & Regional Planning, University of Florida, Hazus-MH Trained Professional Hazus-MH: nationally applicable standardized methodology that contains models for estimating potential losses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes. Used for mitigation planning and recovery. Two approaches for modeling future coastal flood risk under sea level rise scenarios using FEMA’s Hazus-MH software: (1) Model 1% annual chance or 100-year storm with SLR (2) Model Historic Hurricane/ Storm with SLR Pilot approaches in study area: ECFRPC DEP CPI - Volusia County

37. HAZUS-MH FLOOD MODEL 1% ANNUAL CHANCE OR 100-YEAR STORM
FEMA’s methodology for developing the FIRMs, where flood frequency and flood magnitude (or depth) are used to define flood hazard.
The model relies on the 100-year Stillwater elevation (SWEL) and Stillwater depth (SWD) to identify the inland impacts of storm surge.
Stillwater Elevation: flood level not including the effects of waves, but including storm surge and astronomical tides.
Coastal flooding scenarios were run on the entire Atlantic coastline of Volusia County using the FEMA 100-year or 1% annual chance flood event as a baseline scenario.
Raise SWEL (Add SLR to SWEL) before running surge model

38. HAZUS-MH COASTAL SURGE MODEL
Modeling Historic Storm with addition of SLR
Coastal Surge Model – coupled storm surge and wave hazard
Uses SLOSH for storm surge
Modify initial starting water level to represent “future” water level under SLR conditions before running hurricane surge.
Limitations: only historical hurricanes of Cat 3 & higher are available.
Closest historic hurricane available was Hurricane Dora, which made landfall near St. Augustine in 1964.

39. SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS: VOLUSIA COUNTY
Nine SLR scenarios were added to the coastal Stillwater elevations for the base 100-year storm before running coastal flood model. AND added to initial water level before running Hurricane Dora.
USACE SLR Projections
Feet of RSLR (relative to MSL)
Daytona Beach Shores, FL
Low
Intermediate
High
2040
0.37 ft
0.57 ft
1.22 ft
2070
0.59 ft
1.14 ft
2.85 ft
2100
0.82 ft
1.86 ft
5.15 ft

40. DEMO/ GUIDED WALK THROUGH OF MAP VIEWER

43. GROUP EXERCISE: EXPLORE THE MAP
Group Training Exercises (handout)
Use Data Layers Guide (handout)
Report out: What did you find?
When does SLR look like for your area?
When do road impacts (if any) begin to occur for your area?
What does future flood risk look like for your area?
Based on your knowledge of your local area, is inundation/ flooding showing up where you would expect?
Feedback!
Errors, problems, suggestions, recommendations….

44. Project Website *Map Viewers *Data & Tools * Reports Contact: Crystal Goodison Associate Director, GeoPlan Center, Room 131 A