1. FROM RISK MANAGEMENT TO QUANTITATIVE
DISASTER RESILIENCE
A PARADIGM SHIFT
Slobodan P. Simonović
FCAE, FCSCE, FASCE, FIWRA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Western University
London, Canada

2. 2|
CONCLUSIONS
There are practical links between adaptation to global change and sustainable development leading to:
re-enforcing resilience as a new development paradigm
Systems approach to quantification of resilience allows:
capturing temporal and spatial dynamics of disaster management
better understanding of factors contributing to resilience
more systematic assessment of various measures to increase resilience
Understanding of local context of vulnerability and exposure is fundamental for increasing resilience
Regional Resilience Assessment Program

3. 3| PRESENTATION OUTLINE Introductory remarks From risk to resilience
Limitations of risk management
Definition of resilience
Quantification of resilience
Implementation of quantitative resilience measure
Systems approach (simulation, time and space)
Examples
Climate change caused urban flooding
Multi purpose reservoir operation
Urban infrastructure network system
Conclusions

4. 4| INTRODUCTION Principal investigator
Research support
Principal investigator
Systems Engineering Approach to the Reliability of Complex Hydropower Infrastructure
NSERC CRD with BC Hydro: $673,334
Linking Hazard, Exposure and Risk Across Multiple Hazards
NSERC CRD with Chaucer Synd.: $1,375,600
Co-investigator
Coastal Cities at Risk (CCaR): Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities
IDRC - International Research Initiative on adaptation to Climate Change: 2011 – 2016 $2,500,000
Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation
NSERC CREATE: $1,650,00

5. 5| INTRODUCTION Global change Infrastructure systems (hard)
Population growth
Land use change
Climate change
Complexity and uncertainty
Infrastructure systems (hard)
Water
Energy
Transport
Communications
Infrastructure (soft)
Institutional
Social
Cultural

6. 6|
INTRODUCTION
Shifts in disaster management
There is a shift in the approach to effective disaster management:
from focusing on disaster risk reduction strategies to focusing on building disaster resilience through effective adaptation actions;
from considering static characteristics of vulnerable types of populations to considering the dynamic attributes of resilient communities; and
beginning to recognize the importance of both the spatial and temporal dynamics of resilience.
Focus on resilience provides:
a positive approach to disaster management;
for consideration of opportunities that arise in the wake of a disaster; and
an opportunity to grow and improve a situation to reduce future potential impacts.
Systems analysis based approach:
simulation (short and long term); and
systematic assessment of various options to increase resilience.

7. 7| RISK TO RESILIENCE The broad definition
Need for paradigm change
The broad definition
The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences.
Risk = Hazard x Consequence

8. 8| RISK TO RESILIENCE Risk management framework Resilience framework
Need for paradigm change
Risk management framework
Static (in time and space)
Difficulties in assessing probability of extreme events
Difficult integration of physical, social, economic and ecological concerns
Resilience framework
Dynamic (in time and space)
Not only assessment of direct and indirect losses – broader framework

9. 9| RESILIENCE Initial ecology-based (Holling, 2001) Hazard – based
Definitions
Initial ecology-based (Holling, 2001)
…the ability of a system to withstand stresses of ‘environmental loading’…
Hazard – based
…capacity for collective action in response to extreme events…
…the capacity of a system, community, or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing, in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure…
…the capacity to absorb shocks while maintaining function…
…the capacity to adapt existing resources and skills to new situations and operating conditions…
Used in this research
…the ability of an infrastructure system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from the effects of a system disruption in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions…
System performance and system adaptive capacity

10. 10| RESILIENCE Quantification 𝜌 𝑡 = 𝑡 0 𝑡 𝑃 0 −𝑃 𝜏 𝑑𝜏
𝜌 𝑡 = 𝑡 0 𝑡 𝑃 0 −𝑃 𝜏 𝑑𝜏
𝑟 𝑡 =1−[ 𝜌 𝑡 𝑃 0 × 𝑡− 𝑡 0
𝑡∈[ 𝑡 0 , 𝑡 𝑟

11. 11|
RESILIENCE
Implementation – temporal dynamics
𝜕𝑟(𝑡 𝜕𝑡 =𝐴𝐶 𝑡 −𝑃 𝑡

12. 12| RESILIENCE SD GIS Implementation – spatial dynamics
dynamic data exchange
Temporal dynamics
Spatial dynamics

13. 13| RESILIENCE Implementation – temporal and spatial dynamics
𝜌 𝑡,𝑠 = 𝑡 0 𝑡 𝑃 0 −𝑃 𝜏,𝑠 𝑑𝜏
𝑟 𝑡,𝑠 =1−[ 𝜌 𝑡,𝑠 𝑃 0 × 𝑡− 𝑡 0
𝜕𝑅(𝑡,𝑠 𝜕𝑡 =𝐴𝐶 𝑡,𝑠 −𝑃 𝑡,𝑠
System disruption!
𝑡∈[ 𝑡 0 , 𝑡 𝑟

14. 14| EXAMPLE 1 Vancouver Impacts (i)
Climate change caused urban flooding
Vancouver
Sea level rise
Riverine flooding
Set of climate scenarios
Impacts (i)
Physical
Social
Health
Economic
𝜕𝑅(𝑡,𝑠 𝜕𝑡 = 𝑖 𝐴𝐶 𝑖 𝑡,𝑠 − 𝑃 𝑖 𝑡,𝑠

15. 15|
EXAMPLE 1
Climate change caused urban flooding

16. 16| EXAMPLE 2 Reservoir (BC Hydro) Continuity
Multi purpose reservoir operation
Reservoir (BC Hydro)
Hydropower production
Water supply
Continuity
𝑆 𝑡 = 𝑆 𝑡−1 + 𝐼 𝑡 − 𝑇𝑅 𝑡 − 𝑂 𝑡 − 𝑆𝑃 𝑡
Power production
𝑃 𝑡 = 𝛾 ∗𝑃𝑅 𝑡 ∗ 𝜂∗( 𝐸 𝑡 − 𝐸 𝑇𝐿 )
System performance
𝑆𝑃 𝑝,𝑡 = 𝑃𝑅 𝑡 𝑃𝑅 𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 = 𝑊𝑆 𝑡 𝑊𝑆 𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑
Resilience
𝐶𝑆𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 = 𝑡0 𝑡 [ 𝑆𝑃 𝑖,0 − 𝑆𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 ] 𝑑𝑡
𝐷𝑅 𝑖,𝑡 =1− 𝐶𝑆𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 𝑆𝑃 𝑖,0 × 𝑡− 𝑡 0
𝑆𝑅 𝑡 = ∏ 𝑖=1 𝐼 𝐷𝑅 𝑖,𝑡 1 𝐼

17. 17| EXAMPLE 2 Turbine failure Water scarcity
Multi purpose reservoir operation
Turbine failure
Single event
Temporal variability
No spatial variability
Water scarcity
Water supply
Temporal and spatial variability

18. 18| EXAMPLE 3 Urban infrastructure network
Urban infrastructure network system
Urban infrastructure network
Four layers:
Streets
Water supply
Energy supply
Information
Nodes and edges (two states)
Intra and interconnections
Node node
Node edge
Node path
Node cluster
Single and multiple disasters
Five recovery strategies
First repair first failures
First repair last failures
First repair important components independently
First repair the obvious dependent elements
First repair the hidden dependent elements

19. 19| EXAMPLE 3 Urban infrastructure network system
Robustness: refers to the ability of a system to withstand a given level of stress without suffering degradation or loss function. The common measure for network robustness is the critical fraction at which the system completely collapses
Resourcefulness: is the capacity to develop and implement mitigation and response strategies to a specific disturbance. It is limited by the ability to obtain sufficient monetary, physical, technological, informational and human resources necessary to meet established priorities
Rapidity: refers to the capacity to meet priorities and achieve goals in a timely manner. This work uses the duration of system recovery to denote rapidity,

20. 20| EXAMPLE 3 Test network Urban infrastructure network system
Four layers of four cells
16 street nodes and 54 street segments
16 water network nodes and 16 water pipes
36 power network nodes and 16 transmission lines
5 information network nodes and 8 information network lines

21. 21|
EXAMPLE 3
Urban infrastructure network system

22. 22|
CONCLUSIONS
There are practical links between adaptation to global change and sustainable development leading to:
re-enforcing resilience as a new development paradigm
Systems approach to quantification of resilience allows:
capturing temporal and spatial dynamics of disaster management
better understanding of factors contributing to resilience
more systematic assessment of various measures to increase resilience
Understanding of local context of vulnerability and exposure is fundamental for increasing resilience
Regional Resilience Assessment Program

23. Research -> FIDS -> Research projects
23|
RESOURCES
Research -> FIDS -> Research projects
Simonovic, S.P., and A. Peck, (2013) "Dynamic Resilience to Climate Change Caused Natural Disasters in Coastal Megacities - Quantification Framework", British Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 3(3):
Simonovic, S.P., and R. Arunkumar, (2016) “Quantification of resilience to water scarcity, a dynamic measure in time and space”, Proc. IAHS, 93:1–5, 2016, doi: /piahs
Simonovic, S.P., (2016) “From risk management to quantitative disaster resilience – a paradigm shift”, International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, 6(1):1–12.

24. 24| Slobodan P. Simonović Computer-based research laboratory Research:
Research facility
Computer-based research laboratory
Research:
Subject Matter - Systems modeling; Risk and reliability; Water resources and environmental systems analysis; Computer-based decision support systems development.
Topical Area - Reservoirs; Flood control; Hydropower energy; Operational hydrology; Climatic Change; Integrated water resources management.
> 70 research projects; ~ $11.5 M
6 visiting fellows, 14 PosDoc, 20 PhD and 39 MESc
3 PosDoc’s, 4 PhD, 4 MESc and 1 visiting

25. 25| Slobodan P. Simonović > 490 professional publications
Research results
> 490 professional publications
205 in peer reviewed journals
3 major textbooks
Water Resources Research Reports 95 volumes
~50,000 downloads since 2011

26. 26|
Slobodan P. Simonović
Current research projects
Coastal Cities at Risk - Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities
Extreme Flow Uncertainty Under Changing Climatic Conditions
Water Resources Management Capacity Building in the Context of Global Change
Systems Engineering Approach to the Reliability of Complex Hydropower Infrastructure
Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation
Linking Hazard, Exposure and Risk Across Multiple Hazards