1. GEOGLAM Global Agricultural Monitoring
Michel Deshayes

2. GEOGLAM Challenges

3. Challenge : Feeding the planet (1/3)
Yields
World Cereals Production
World Population
Cropland area
World population and World area, yields and production in cereals (including rice), 1980/81 to 2010/11, base 100 in 1980/81; Source: INRA from USDA/PSD and FAOSTAT data
3/XX

4. Recent volatility of Agricultural Prices
Monthly Wheat Prices ($/Metric Ton) Source: World Bank
Average Price : 300$
2010/11 Price hikes
Drought: Russia
2008 Price hikes
Droughts:
Australia & Ukraine
World prices of wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans rose 226% from
Between June and May 2011 price of wheat increased by over 80%
The 2010/11 price increases have pushed an additional 44 million people into poverty (FAO)
2011 Horn of Africa drought left over 13 million in need of food aid (FAO)
2012 crop prices for major crops increased rapidly in past few months
1971/2’s price hike
Drought: Russia
Average Price : 150$
Landsat 1 Launched (1972)
Nominal wheat price in US $/metric Ton 4
4/XX

5. Effects of Production Forecasts on Market Prices (2010-2012)
Aggregation of Wheat Production Forecasts from Main Wheat Export Countries
vs. International Market Price ($/Ton)
+17%
+80%
+35%
-20%
-27%
-24%
5/XX

6. GEOGLAM Achievements

7. GEOGLAM: Global Agricultural Monitoring
Origin in 2011: G20 creation to fight global food price volatility, together with AMIS*
Objectives: To strengthen the international community’s capacity to produce & disseminate relevant, timely and accurate information & forecasts on agricultural production at national, regional & global scales, through reinforced use of Earth Observations
Activities: Crop Monitors, Capacity Building, Rangelands monitoring, R&D…
Crop Monitor for AMIS (Corn, Maize, Rice, Soybeans)
Crop Monitor for Early Warning
End of August 2016 – 4-Crop Conditions
End of August 2016 Maize Conditions
1 new condition «Failure»
3 more drivers
Pest & Disease
Socio-Political
Delayed Onset
AMIS: Agricultural Market Information System
7/XX

8. Crop Monitor for AMIS & Economics
Information Asymmetry (IA) theory
In Economics, IA deals with the study of decisions in transactions where one party has more or better information than the other
From 1970, series of papers by Akerlof, by Spence and by Stiglitz
Information asymmetry  imbalance of power in transactions: transactions going sometimes awry, with in worst case market failure
2001: Nobel Price in Economics awarded to Akerlof, Spence & Stiglitz
GEOGLAM and Information (a)symmetry
By producing & openly disseminating relevant, timely and accurate information and forecasts on agricultural production…
… GEOGLAM contributes to an efficient functioning of markets.
8/XX

9. Global Coverage of 4 Commodities (1/2) Wheat, Maize, Rice & Soybeans.
Wheat + Rice + Maize = ≈ 42% of world’s food energy
9/XX

10. Global Coverage of 4 Commodities (2/2) 51 countries
10/XX

11. GEOGLAM Actors GEOGLAM Community of Practice
Open Community made up of international and national agencies concerned with agricultural monitoring including Ministries of Ag, Space agencies, Universities, & Industry
11/XX
11 / 21

12. First Crop Monitor for Early Warning, Feb. 2016
Consensus Map highlighting the poor conditions in Southern Africa for Maize
1 new condition: Failure
3 more drivers:
Pest & Disease
Socio-Political
Delayed Onset
12/XX

13. 83 Countries Covered by the CM4EW
13/XX

14. Achievements Global Crop Monitoring
about 94% of world agricultural area…
14/XX

15. RAPP Rangelands and Pasture Productivity
Objectives
establish a dedicated global system for observing pastures and rangeland status, biomass dynamics and productivity
more effective planning based on accurate forecasts of pasture and rangelands productivity variability.
improved global understanding of risk across all landscapes as climate and land use change through the addition of these lands into global agricultural monitoring.
RAPP – Rangeland and Pasture Productivity Monitoring
Action under Australian leadership (CSIRO)
2nd Workshop (Paris, July 2014), 3rd workshop (Campinas, July 2015) Objectives: Develop community, identify pilot areas, identify key EO data sets, discuss interface global pasture monitoring system
4th Workshop (Pretoria, June 2016)
So GEOGLAM Rangeland and Pasture Productivity (RAPP) initiative is the response coming out of GEO and connected to the G20 initiative. These summarise its intentions
15/XX

16. RAPP Product
Vegetation Cover Anomaly (Rangeland-Pastures) produced monthly & published on RAPP website & twitter account
16/XX

17. GEOGLAM Remaining Challenges

18. Challenge #1: Adaptation to Regional Agrosystems
ex. Mixed crops – Rungbe, Tanzania
Agroforestry systems based on :
Crops: perennial (coffee, banana, cocoa, fruit trees, tea) & annual (corn, rice).
Small fields : m².
« CBM » : Coffee, Banana & Maize
Trends
Upper zone : CBM progressing, with gradual trimming of tea-cropping areas & Afromontane forest.
Lower areas : CBM being abandoned in advantage of cocoa & rice monoculture, supported by significant investments (irrigation).
C. Lelong CIRAD
18 / 30

19. Challenge #2 Gaps in Rainfall Station Reporting
Monitoring period: 1 to 15 October 2015
(percentage of reports received based on the main synoptic hours 0000, 0600, 1200 & 1800 UTC)
For one year, systematic sample on the 1st, 11th & 21st of month (3x12=36 samples)
1232 African GTS stations:
40% did not report on any of the 36 days of the sample
only 25% sent all reports or missed only one
90% to 100%
45% to 90%
1% to 45%
silent station
GTS = Global Telecommunication System
19/XX

20. Challenges #3 Training – Capacity building Great funding needs
Need to adjust Tools & Methods to local agrosystems
Transfer Research  Min. Agriculture Depts (Statistics, Food)
Huge needs in Training / Capacity building in new User-countries (Learning engineering: Skills to be acquired, Pre-requisites, Online-presence.. TurnOver)
Prerequisite. Dialog with stakeholders (needs time and expertise)
Great funding needs
GEO overall voluntary nature great, but institutionalizing require firm commitments (research, capacity building)
Identification of new funds: an issue in many member countries
20/XX

21. Спасиба ! Thank you !

22. Asia-RiCE – Asian Rice Monitoring
A multi-national project led by Japan (JAXA), with collaborations in ASEAN+3 countries & India
A regional view using agro-meteorological data derived from low resolution optical satellite imagery (MODIS, GCOM-W, TRMM and others)
A local view to estimate rice crop area and production using available radar and other satellite data with ground observation data and statistical information
22/XX