1. Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Northern Europe 29.06.2010
Associate Professor
Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas
Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University

2. Academic Menu What is Baltic? Nordic Regional Identities
Baltics and Russia
Management of Change: Eastern Neighbourhood and Baltic Sea Strategy

3. What is “Baltic”?
The location of the Baltic is in fact more a question of awareness than of geography, but that awareness has to be guided and educated. [O]ld legacies continue to dog the states formerly under Soviet domination, whilst new opportunities may undermine the fragile sense of regional community. There is much to be done. Defining the Baltic at the beginning of a new millennium is thus an exciting challenge for all who study the region (Kirby 1999).

4. Post-Communist Transformation
Quadruple transition:
Market Economy
Democracy
Nation and State building
Transatlantic integration
Different from Southern Europe

5. Why Europe and NATO?
1995 Association agreements with EU, start of negotiations, 2004 twin membership
Come-back Home
Security (hard and soft) and “El Dorado”
Cooperation, Joint-decision making,
Active foreign policy
Europeanisation (Westernisation) as a two-way street: Customise Europe
2004 membership: benefits and shortcomings

6. Getting used in “paradise”
Schengen – Yes
European Neighbourgood – Yes
Common Energy security – No
EU-Russia relations – ?

7. Theoretical Guidance Regions within and among states
Meta-regions, Regions, Sub-regions, Trans-regions
Rationalist-Reflectivist divide
Constructivism, Identity (US-Them) and Language Power
“We will hunt them down, smoke them out and bring them to justice”
Regions lie where politicians want them to lie

8. Regional trajectories in the Baltics
Quantification of narratives
4 main regions: Baltic, Northern, Baltic sea, Central (and Eastern) Europe
Statements of key policy makers
2 environments for narratives

9. Frequencies of regional references in the neutral context before and after 2004

10. Self-affiliation to the region
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Central (and Eastern) Europe
Medium
Low
Baltic sea
Medium→
Norden
High
High→
Baltic

11. Compatibility of regional images before and after 2004 EU/NATO enlargement
Common Denominator
Modern/Postmodern
Central (and Eastern) Europe
Medium→Low
Soviet Past, Freedom,
NATO/EU membership→ Soviet Past
Modern
Baltic sea
High→Medium
Soft Security
Modern/
Postmodern
Norden
Medium
Political and economic Partnership
Place in Northern Europe
Baltic
High
NATO/EU membership →Security Problems, Political Partnership, Baltic Tigers

12. Denmark
Baltic Sea region as a “dynamic region”, that has potentials and is growing
The Baltic Sea as a uniting factor: cooperation, mostly in economic and energy issues
Denmark as a “Northern European country”
Baltic countries belong to Baltic Sea Region
Security appears everywhere and in almost every meaning; most often: energy security, social security, economic security, homeland/military security in terms of terrorism and the fight against it (in Afghanistan, Iraq)

13. Finland
Social security is one of the central ingredients for Nordic identity.
Nordic as a certain model, attributing a certain system of the welfare state and for the state's involvement in public policy.
Basic concepts of Region: The Nordic Region (Scandinavia also once called “The Nordic Sisters”), the Baltic Region, The Arctic Region (including North-West Russia) and the European Region (EU). Very frequently mentioned during 2006 is the establishing of the Northern Dimension, including Scandinavia and the Baltic States, within the EU.
The European Union as region is especially mentioned outside Europe (cf. Latin America).
Security for Finland appears as a very multi-dimensional and therefore not restricted to the term of military security. Also Security of Energy Supply, Social Security, Importance of a common European Security Policy.

14. Iceland
In 2008 “Nordic” refers to the “other Nordic countries” and the Nordic council; connected to economy issues, especially in the times of the economy crisis
The Nordic countries as fellows, friends, community and our neighbours  increasing Nordic cooperation and evoking something like a Nordic togetherness in times of economic need
Nordic region as strong and leading region in the world (in economy, technology,…)
No mentioning of Baltic/Baltic-Sea
Security issues connected to the withdrawal of the US forces
Security almost always as military security; no mentioning of a Nordic security, just NATO and the US are important in this context

15. Norway
Nordic/Northern: partnership and cooperation is stressed; top in economic/welfare/health/technology issues
Baltic States are not mentioned
Baltic Sea region is not often mentioned, but used to refer to cooperation in energy/economic areas and to include Russia in this cooperation
Security: hard security issues, (military/domestic/international)  new challenges: terrorism and WMD; soft security issues  energy, (economic/social)

16. Sweden
The concept of region appears comparatively seldom. The focus is on the economic aspect of regional integration.
The Baltic states are only mentioned in the biased environment, and he counts Poland also to the Baltic Region.
Norden is rarely mentioned.
Security is about Security of Energy. Military security plays no important role in the Swedish international statements.

17. Summing Up
Nordic: Iceland: Starts to refer to the Nordic Partnership only in the recent crisis; Sweden: only refers only once to the Nordic Cooperation; Denmark: defines itself as part of the Nordic region, but does not emphasize this concept very frequently; Norway: very similar to Denmark, the Nordicity is emphasized more; Finland clearly defines itself as a Nordic country.Common denominator: Nordic is defined as a welfare system and a role of the state in public policy.
Baltic: The Baltic region is seen as a different geographical region not; the Baltic states are not mentioned very often, mostly in relation to the Baltic Sea Region.
Baltic Sea Region: The Baltic Sea region is especially important for Denmark, Sweden, Finland and to a lesser degree Norway and Iceland, in terms of economic or trade routes, energy security and environmental issues. Baltic Sea Region as a region that should be strengthened. Finland and Norway also put emphasis on the Arctic/Barents-Region which includes cooperation with Russia.
Security: Security is not important for Nordic identity as in the Baltic case. For Norway, Iceland, Denmark NATO is the most important guarantor of security. For Finland it is the EU. Norway refers to cooperation with the EU security policy. Hard security issues especially important for Denmark and Iceland. Energy security important for all states and increasing.

18. Baltics and Norden Compared
Construction of political regions in terms of discursive (quantitative and qualitative; in neutral and biased environments) confirmed dominant trilateral Baltic sub-regional identity in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which revolved around sovereignty, security and its derivative, Transatlantic integration vs. Russia.
In the Nordic case security is not the binding case and there is a drive towards the Baltic sea region.
The trajectories of constructing regional identities in the the Norden and the Baltics cross each other meet only not in Baltiscandia but in the Baltic sea area which is downplayed to low politics in the Baltics.

19. Nordic-Baltic Chemistry
Change of Nordic balance after the Cold War
Norms entrepreneurs and adjacent internationalism
Gravity towards the Baltics
First to recognise and open embassies
Nordic values of democracy, stability and cooperation
Assistance in democracy and civil society
Significant Nordic FDI in the Baltics
Baltics in the Nordic Investment Bank
Close political cooperation – NB8 (NB6)

20. The Baltic states and Russia

21. The Baltic states and Russia
Carl Bildt 1994: Litmus test idea
Lukewarm Russian and Baltic relations
Identity is the key: The role of Us/Them
Baltic return to Europe and distancing from Russia
Russia in search for national identity after 1991
Russia as successor of the Soviet Union and Russian empire
Hostages of history?

22. Unfriendly countries to Russia, 2005-2009, %
2005 May
2006 May
2007 August
2009 May
Georgia 38 44 46 62 US 23 37 35 45
Ukraine 13 27 41
Latvia 49 36
Lithuania 42 32
Estonia 28 60 30

23. Russia and BSR Russia is essential for the region
Russia does not focus on BSR cooperation
Desecuritisation is not a Fact
National identity in Russia focus on the USSR
Clash of identities and principles in the BSR

24. Concerns about Russia Breaking Georgian Territorial Integrity
Control of Media
Violation of Human Rights
Increasing Racism
Crimes in Chechnya
Political Destruction of YUKOS Company
Notorious and unresolved murders
Information, Cyber Attacks and Revision of History
Manipulation with Energy Resources
Embargos for Lithuania, Poland,Georgia, Moldova, Czech Republic
Conflicts with Georgia, Estonia and UK

25. Eastern European Funk The Change of the Term ‘Eastern Europe’
We ‘were’ Eastern European…
New ‘Eastern Europe’
We-Neighbours-They

26. Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy
Winder Europe
Start in objective of avoiding the emergence of new dividing lines
strengthening the prosperity, stability and security
mutual commitment to common values (democracy and human rights, rule of law, good governance, market economy principles and sustainable development)
deeper political relationship and economic integration

27. Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy
The European Neighbourhood Policy applies to the EU's immediate neighbours by land or sea – Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine. Although Russia is also a neighbour of the EU, our relations are instead developed through a Strategic Partnership covering four “common spaces”.

28. Dynamics of EU’s Neighbourhood Policy
bilateral ENP Action Plans agreed between the EU and each partner.
The ENP was not activated for Belarus.

29. Eastern Partnership
Change – Swedish and Polish (Czech and Lithuanian) initiative
Aims - extend the area of security and prosperity, and ensure economic and energy security
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
Different countries, different approaches

30. Eastern Partnership
Essence – Faster reforms, customisation, integration to economies, better travel, energy security – move closer to the EU
Reward for progress
600 million Euros
Not everyone wants the EU
Free-trade and visa free travel for the beginning

31. Challenges for the Eastern Partnership
Russia
Southern Dimension
Scanty Resources
EU unwillingness – Enlargement fatigue

32. Baltic Role Values and interests
Small states, soft power and norms (Nordic?)
Baltic experiences and knowledge
Where else to go?
What is it we want?
The aim is to create a ring of friends and bring those countries closed to the West via dialogue

33. Emergence of the BSR No BSR during Cold War Role of CBSS
From Hard to Soft Security
Realist, Pluralist and Asecurity Approaches to BSR
Uploading the EU: Northern Dimension

34. Baltic Sea Strategy
Problems:
• severe ecological danger
• uneven economic development
• insufficient energy transmission and supply networks, gaps in transport links
• shortcomings in maritime safety and security
8 of the 9 countries bordering the Baltic Sea are EU members
Many of the challenges are in EU policy fields
Strong need for coordination of numerous stakeholders and countries involved
The EU is an independent player with respected authority
The EU already runs regional development programmes in the region providing many opportunities for cooperation
In Dec 2007, the Member States asked the Commission to prepare the strategy

35. BSR: Fields of Action
Environment: to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea Region, the largest brackish water system in the world
Economy: to make the Baltic Sea Region more prosperous by supporting balanced economic development
Energy and transport: to make the region more accessible and attractive, for its inhabitants, for its labour force and for tourists
Safety and Security: to make the region safer and more secure

36. EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region
BSS focuses on soft security
No more funding, institutions or legislation
Positive aspects: highest political attention in the EU, Need for dialogue with Russia after 8/8/8 and inclusion of Belarus
Old stories: BSS like CBSS focuses on low politics, similarity to ND
BSS merges the soft security approach of the CBSS and the openness and inclusions of the ND
liberal approach with the stress on cooperation in low politics and postmodern daydreaming about a wider security community of tomorrow in BSR (EU’s logic)

37. BSS Challenges No BSR identity yet
Real Issues (Mistral, Nord Stream, Human Rights) are not discussed
Economic crisis and resource drain
Bilateralism, small vs Large states
Tensions with Southern Dimension and Mediterranean
Modern and postmodern cleavage
Russia’s preference on ND than BSS
Competitive synergy: overlapping agendas and absence of division of cooperative functions
Supremacy of the ND over the CBSS
ND as external dimension is preferred to CBSS in the BSS
CBSS with modern problematique, ND - postmodern

38. Suggestions Look for success stories
Use CBSS as “coalition of the willing”
Synergise external dimension of the EU in the CBSS: Eastern Partnership, ND and BSS

39. Europe and its Challenges
EU enlargement – success story: peace, stability, derivative of values
Continuity of Enlargement. Copenhagen criteria
EU-Russia and post-PCA: Reciprocity
Common Energy Policy: Mission Impossible? (Nord Stream, Druzhba)
Evaluation of Totalitarian Regimes
Climate Change: Renewables and Renaissance of nuclear
European Neighbourhood as Ring of Friends
EU as a transforming power: free trade agreements, economic integration, sectoral agreements in energy, transport, migration, etc, promote people-to people contacts
Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, South Caucasus
Kosovo, Kaliningrad region
Guidelines: Strong Institutions, Solidarity, Good Practice

40. Associated Professor
Dr. Mindaugas Jurkynas