1. The United States and the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood
Michael Baun
Valdosta State University

2. The EU’s Eastern neighborhood

3. EU Eastern Policy European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) 2004
“Eastern Partnership” – May 7 Prague summit
-- 6 Eastern neighbors, including Belarus?
Goals: stability, security, democracy, substitute for EU enlargement? reduce Russian influence

4. US interests in Eastern neighborhood
1) Strategic:
-- limit Russian influence in former USSR
-- Southern Caucasus
-- independent Europe
-- cooperative relations with Russia

5. US interests in Eastern neighborhood (II)
2) security:
-- resolve “frozen conflicts” (Transnistria Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh)
-- eliminate safe havens for terrorism and illegal activity
3) democracy

6. US policy towards Eastern neighborhood
Clinton years ( ):
-- support for economic and political reform in Russia (Yeltsin)
-- independence of former Soviet states
-- NATO enlargement (1999) and “Partnership for Peace” (1994)
-- interest in Southern Caucasus as energy corridor: Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline

7. US policy towards Eastern neighborhood
Bush years ( ):
-- democracy promotion and Western integration of former Soviet states (“color revolutions”)
--NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia
-- increased presence in S. Caucasus after 9/11; especially Georgia, Azerbaijan
(“frontline in global war on terror”)

8. Russian pushback after 2004
Russia-Ukraine gas disputes (2006 and 2009)
economic pressure on Georgia (2006)
involvement in domestic politics
independence for separatist areas in response to international recognition of Kosovo?
Russia-Georgia war (August 2008); recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
growing tensions over Russian naval base in Crimea – Ukraine next?

9. Belarus “selective engagement” (1996)
cooperation with EU from 2006 – travel restrictions, financial sanctions on individuals; support pro-democracy forces
partial lifting of sanctions (Aug. 2008) and support for EU effort to reengage Belarus

10. Ukraine > $3 billion US aid since 1991
strong support for Orange Revolution government
support for Ukraine’s NATO membership (MAP)
push for EU membership perspective

11. Moldova support for economic and political reform
Transnistria: US participation in “5+2” negotiations (since 2005, as observer)
support for EU efforts to integrate Moldova via ENP and Eastern Partnership

12. Georgia > $2 billion US aid since 1991 M. Saakashvili
military and security assistance
support for Georgia’s NATO ambitions (MAP)
support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity (Abkhazia, South Ossetia)

13. Armenia
~$2 billion US aid since 1991 (largest per capita of any CIS state) – powerful Armenian lobby in US
humanitarian aid (1988 earthquake)
support for economic and political reform

14. Azerbaijan increased strategic importance after 9/11
increased US economic assistance after 2001
muted support for democracy
Nagorno-Karabakh: US co-chairs OSCE “Minsk Group”

15. Obama policy towards Eastern neighborhood
General principles:
“new realism” (geography, strategic priorities)
no Russian “sphere of influence”
-- defend principle of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia; don’t actively promote it
“with Russia, not against it”
-- avoid zero-sum competition with Russia in former Soviet space

16. Obama policy towards Eastern neighborhood (II)
General principles (cont.):
continued support for democracy, but toned-down rhetoric
support EU efforts to integrate Eastern neighbors and greater EU role in Southern Caucasus
do not aggravate or exploit internal EU divisions

17. US-EU cooperation in Eastern neighborhood
Three scenarios:
1) active cooperation/close coordination
-- mutually reinforcing, synergistic, maximal impact and effectiveness
2) separate policies/no coordination
-- occasional disagreements, inefficient
3) separate and possibly competing policies
-- transatlantic tension and internal EU divisions; greater opportunities for Russia to “divide and conquer”