1. SENSIBLE LAND USE COALISION
Hazel H Reinhardt
January 25, 2017

2. WHY DEMOGRAPHICS One of the drivers of change
Lends itself to long-term projections
Age is a prime example

3. WHAT’S HAPPENING Population is changing
From fast growth to slower growth
From a young population to an old population
From a homogeneous population to a diverse population
From a population with a large middle income group to a population with smaller middle income group and larger “tails”

4. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Aging of the population
Increasing racial/ethnic diversity
Immigration
Different fertility rates

5. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Socio-economic changes Geographic distribution
Family/household composition
Education/Income gap increasing
Geographic distribution
Concentration of population characteristics by geography

6. DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Of the four trends, aging is changing the world as “we know it”
Age is more than a number

7. WHY THE AGING POPULATION MATTERS
Unprecedented
Population has been young historically
Pervasive
A global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child

8. WHY THE AGING POPULATION MATTERS
Enduring
We will not return to the young populations that our ancestors knew
Profound
Implications for many facets of human life

9. AGING Dimensions of aging Physical, including life expectancy
Psychological
Life stage
Generation effect (cohort)

10. INDICATORS OF AGING Standard indicators of aging Median age
Dependency ratios
Percentages of selected characteristics

11. 7-COUNTY TWIN CITIES REGION

12. PERCENTAGE OF 65+ 7-COUNTY TWIN CITIES REGION

13. MEDIAN AGE BY RACE/ETHNICITY MINNESOTA

14. TRENDS AMONG THE YOUNG Rise in median age of first marriage
Rise in year-olds living at home
Stagnant number of births

15. MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE UNITED STATES

16. LIVING AT HOME 25-34 YEAR-OLDS UNITED STATES
Men
Women
1967
9.1%
5.3%
2000
12.4%
7.6%
2010
15.1%
9.6%
2016
18.5%
11.6%

17. MINNESOTA BIRTHS STAGNANT

18. RACIAL/ETHNIC DIVERSITY
Immigration
Relationship to age
Correlation with socio-economic indicators
Future of current categories

19. INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC MIGRATION
Minnesota
Beginning in 2002 domestic net migration has been negative but international net migration (immigration) has been positive
Net losses to domestic migration concentrated in three age groups
18-24 year-olds
35-39 year-olds
60-69 year-olds

20. INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC MIGRATION
Minnesota and the Twin Cities Region dependent on international migration for growth

21. INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC MIGRATION, MINNESOTA

22. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
Family/household composition
Levels of educational attainment
Income
Relationship of education, family composition and income

23. SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE MINNESOTA

24. SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILD(REN) UNDER 18 MINNESOTA

25. COLLEGE GRADUATES MINNESOTA Age 25+

26. INCOME
The terms “middle income” and “middle class” often used interchangeably in terms of consumption
But middle class connotes more than income, be it a college education, white-collar work, economic security, owning a home, or having certain social and political values
Household income effected by household composition, education and martial status

27. MINNESOTA INCOME (in 2015 dollars)

28. INCOME BY COUNTY (in 2015 dollars)

29. MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME MINNESOTA (in 2014 dollars)

30. SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME BELOW $35,000 MINNESOTA

31. INCOME
After more than four decades of being the nation’s economic majority, the American “middle class” is now matched in number by those in the economic tiers above and below it
Source: Pew Research analysis based on the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements

32. INCOME One sense, represents economic progress
While share in lower- and upper-income grew, the share in the upper-income tier grew more

33. INCOME
However, the nation’s aggregate household income has shifted from middle-income to upper-income households
49% upper income, up from 29%
43% middle income, down from 62%
9% lower income, down from 10%

34. RECENT RESEARCH
Earnings of 30 year-olds compared to their parents earnings at age 30
90% in early 1970s
50% today
Reasons are many, hard to reverse
Educational attainment

35. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
Twin Cities Metro Area
Suburban
Minneapolis and St. Paul only 23.4% of 7-county regional population
Communities have different characteristics
Most suburbs are aging

36. GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
7-CountyTwin Cities Region
90% of Minnesota’s population increase

37. WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN
For land use, communities and real estate (housing)

38. WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN
Aging
Really uncharted waters
Slower economic growth
Less moving (changing address)
Aging in place

39. WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN
Aging
Household size will decrease
Housing
More one-person households
Less demand for single-family detached units

40. WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN
Land use
Redevelopment of existing residential areas
Challenge of who can afford what
Exurbs

41. WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN
Housing for the less affluent
Basically three tiers of households
Top 25% of households are doing OK
College graduates, married
Middle 50% are not doing so well
Bottom 25% not doing well at all

42. WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN
A more complex market environment
More market niches
Aging population will have profound effects
24% 65+ in 2030 (Twin Cities region)
Affordability