Estimating and Scheduling Track C Breakout Session #4

Estimating and Scheduling Track C Breakout Session #4
September 15, 2016 Michael Fulcher – Moderator Senior Programming Specialist, VDOT Staunton District

Preliminary Engineering Scheduling & Estimating
Kelly Waldrop – VDOT, Hampton Roads District John-Allen Ennis, P.E. – VDOT, Staunton District Brian Henschel, P.E., CCM, PMP – Whitman, Requardt & Associates, LLP

Scheduling & LAP Schedule Tool Introduction and Demonstration
Kelly Waldrop VDOT Hampton Roads District, Urban Section

LAP Schedule Tool History Began as an UCI work group initiative
Purpose To provide a framework for localities to build schedules based on the underlying deliverables related to project factors

LAP Schedule Tool – Importance to Localities
Assist localities in building schedules which include VDOT review times Dynamic list of major deliverables based on funding and phases Useful starting point when developing schedules for grant applications

LAP Schedule Tool - Components
Basic Components of spreadsheet Read me page Schedule page Project details Schedule factors Programming schedule Deliverables grid

LAP Schedule Tool - Factors
Applicable for Federal and State funded projects Schedule Factors included which may impact delivery: Funding Phases Public Involvement Consultant Procurement Environmental Document Level

LAP Schedule Tool - Terminology
Participating/Non-participating Federal/State participation (i.e. reimbursement) in a phase Programming Schedule When funds will be obligated (Federal projects) When phases will begin receiving charges (State and/or Federal projects)

LAP Schedule Tool Schedule Factors Table

LAP Schedule Tool – Deliverable Grid
Major Milestones identified in blue/gray Project initiation Environmental Right-of-Way Construction Summary tasks are identified in yellow/orange These sum up the information of all the subtasks beneath

Duration Activity length is calculated in working days Planned schedule Start and end days must fall on a work day Start days are calculated based on the end of the longest preceding activity

LAP Schedule Tool – Demonstration
See example

Things to remember The task and subtasks numbers are associated with VDOT’s existing scheduling interface. For localities, these numbers serve only to connect tasks and subtasks within the spreadsheet Be conservative with durations The start date is very important

LAP Schedule Tool – Customization
Baseline durations provided but custom durations may be entered Program defers to custom durations Select risk factors for right-of-way and utility work to view different baseline durations

LAP Schedule Tool – VDOT Schedule Templates
New projects are setup with one of 14 baseline schedules that were developed from the LAP Schedule Tool spreadsheet Not all scenarios are covered but the most likely are included based on: Phases included in the project, consultant procurement, and public involvement

Things to consider when applying for a grant: What phases will I need (evaluate risks) Difficult to add phases later Do I have a consultant already on board? What level of public involvement will I have? Impacts the template selected/schedule start dates

Things to consider during project development: In the VDOT template, actual task completion dates will adjust downstream planned start/end dates. Changes to the following activities trigger a revision approval End dates of activity 12, 52, 80, and 91

Upcoming developments in VDOT Schedule Tool: Predecessor and Successor actual date entry enforcement. VDOT Project Coordinator will not be able to enter other dates until the previous activity is entered. Example – scoping (impacts dashboard)

A renewed focus on project schedules and underlining deliverables LAP VDOT Project Coordinators will be more attentive to schedule changes and impacts to future activities LAP Schedule Tool and VDOT Schedule templates work together

LAP Schedule Tool – Where to find it
Available on the LAD external forms website:

John-Allen Ennis, P.E. VDOT Staunton District, Location & Design
Estimating John-Allen Ennis, P.E. VDOT Staunton District, Location & Design

Estimating Levels of Estimates
Concept/Planning Accuracy Level: % (+/-) Estimating Tool: PCES Spreadsheet Detailed Design Accuracy Level: % (+/-) Estimating Tool: PCES Spreadsheet or Trnsport (unit price) Final Design/Advertisement Accuracy Level: % (+/-) Estimating Tool: Trnsport (unit price) -VDOT actually breaks it into 6 categories (pre-scoping, scoping, preliminary design, detailed design, final design & advertise) -For general purposes, thinking of estimates in 3 stages is fine. Beginning, Middle & End

Estimating Goals of Session
Tips for Developing Concept/Planning Level Estimates Importance of Early Estimates with Smart Scale Overview of VDOT’s PCES tool and how localities can use it.

Concept Estimates The Goal:
-The goal of a concept estimate is quite simple. -What makes it difficult to do accurately is that you rarely have a clear picture of the details Take this information… and figure out how much it will cost to do this

Concept Estimates The Challenge:
Only have sketches and limited information to go on Usually limited amount of time to prepare Project subject to numerous suggestions along the way to add/change/revise the scope. Project will be advertised years in the future in an unknown market climate Piece of cake, right!? -Not trying to be cynical, just realistic. Estimating is not an exact science. -Sometimes we get it right, sometimes we are way off. -By acknowledging that this is a challenge we are more likely to try to account for as many risks as possible.

It can feel a little bit like this…
Concept Estimates It can feel a little bit like this… -If you develop estimates long enough you’ll run into this kind of situation. I doubt I’m the only one who can relate to this. -I find that any challenge we face as engineers and project managers has most likely been poked fun at in a dilbert comic. -The point its, you have very little information, but are expected to develop a budget estimate to final design accuracy.

Concept Estimates Smart Scale: Changed the way we approach funding
Concept level estimates are more important than ever Not just creating estimates – we are creating budgets Less flexibility to increase funding for scope changes -And it’s even more important now -Concept estimates were always important, now they are even more so. -We used to just develop a very rough budget to set up a project knowing that we could refine the estimate later. However, that is no longer the case -Major scope changes that require additional funds will require a project to be rescored

Concept Estimates Smart Scale and the Triple Constraint:
Be prepared to say “No” to scope changes Application of Common Sense Engineering (CSE) principals is important -In the past, the triangle was more malleable. If there was value in expanding the scope, there was more flexibility to expand the other constraints. -This wasn’t necessarily bad as many times there was value in scope changes. -Now, with the implementation of smart scale, The “cost” constraint is less flexible, meaning we don’t have the flexibility to change the other constraints. We must find ways to work within a more rigid budget. -Need to avoid the “It would be nice if we could…” -CSE is critical to ensure we get the most out our projects. Helps us ensure the project addresses the actual purpose and need, not more, not less.

Concept Estimates Creating Concept Estimates for Smart Scale, Revenue Sharing, or other LAP’s – Where to Start? Gather information and define as much of the scope as possible Visit the site if possible. Google Earth can also be useful Make assumptions as needed – AND DOCUMENT THEM! Know what you don’t know and try to account for it. Consider including a 20% – 30% contingency at early stages Helpful Resources VDOT Staff – C.O., District & Residency Support PCES Tool -Don’t worry about the estimate until you have defined as much of the project scope as possible – Estimates aren’t all about numbers! -Can be challenging, sometimes only have a sentence or 2 defining the purpose of the project. Talk to people sponsoring the project and find out what there expectations are. -Seeing things in person can be very eye-opening. Often notice things not obvious from an aerial image. -You will need to make assumptions. Make sure you document them in your estimate. -Example of Assumptions – On a widening project, may assume overlay of the existing road; On improvement projects may assume full reconstruction vs. utilizing existing pavement; May assume existing drainage structures can be utilized/extended vs. replace in full. -Know what you don’t know – Need to add contingency for unknowns. For clearly defined projects this will be a smaller percentage than for a project with many unknowns. -Helpful Resources – VDOT staff has access to information on a multitude of different types of project information, including bid history. -Chances are they have access to something similar to what you are looking at.

PCES Overview PCES – Project Cost Estimating System
VDOT’s primary tool for preliminary cost estimates PCES is available for localities to estimates for Smart Scale, CIP, etc. Recommend reviewing the Users Guide Like any estimating tool, only as good as the information input -PCES – Project cost Estimating System -Available for localities to use preparing estimates for Smart Scale, Capital Improvement Plan or other planning level estimates. -All projects, whether VDOT or Locality administered, are entered into the PCES system -Recommend reviewing the users guide. Specifically, Appendix A is very helpful. It’s a table that details what is included in the estimate and, more importantly what is not included. -Tool is simple and easy to use. However, include as much detailed information as possible as you develop estimates.

PCES Overview Roadway Details
Key Information: Traffic Counts (ADT) Project Terrain No. of Lanes Lane Widths Length of Improvement Turn lanes C&G or Shoulder Pedestrian, Bicycle Facilities Additional PE Costs (i.e. VDOT Oversight, Consultant Design Environmental Studies) -Use a different sheet for different roadways/connections -Use additional lanes feature for single lane widening -Don’t forget to adjust for PE costs for anything unusual

PCES Overview Bridge Details
Key Information: Length Width Skew Potential Modifiers (i.e. shoring, cofferdams, approach slabs, etc.) Detour or Staged Construction Size of bridge to be removed -Relatively new and requires a lot more information than previous bridge estimate tool -Requires some technical knowledge to complete

PCES Overview Misc. Other Details
Key Information: The Misc. tab is used for any items out of the ordinary or that may have excessive quantities (i.e. MOT, large amounts of excavation) Large Drainage Structures (including SWM and Water Quality facilities) Contingencies to address unknowns -This is a good place to include a contingency for unknowns (10 – 20%) -Consider including costs for know environmental or cultural resource mitigation requirements -Other potential misc. costs: Railroad impacts/flagging, rockfill, unusual or out of the ordinary items -Recommend reviewing the users guide list of items not specifically included in standard PCES estimates

PCES Overview Traffic Control
Key Information: Signal Information (No. of Poles, lanes, etc.) Major Sign Structures Lighting -Don’t overlook traffic control items. These can be major project costs

PCES Overview RW & Utilities
RW Key Information: Estimated property impact and RW needs (acreages) Type of property impacted Potential relocations Other potential damages Utility Key Information: Types of utility impacts No. of poles, other physical features impacted -RW & Utilities can be a big impact on projects. Be sure to spend some time evaluating potential impacts. -Take some time to estimate how many acres of RW will be needed, review tax maps if available -Local GIS sites can be very helpful

PCES Overview Comments
One of the most important, yet underused tabs in PCES. Used to document both specific scope details and assumptions Can be helpful for others to understand the basis for your estimate -Very helpful for others to understand the basis of your estimate. Gives context to your estimate. -Whether they are updating your estimate or questioning you years in the future regarding your logic. -At some point you will likely be asked to explain your estimate, possibly years from when you prepared it. Having notes in this tab is very useful when that happens. -Provides a type of “narrative” for your estimate within the spreadsheet -Still recommend separately documenting the scope and assumptions but this can be a helpful quick reference

PCES Overview Manual Input
Allows you to enter a manual estimate for PE, RW or CN. Used when part of the estimate is prepared separately from the spreadsheet Helpful for oddball situations the spreadsheet does not address -Use a different sheet for different roadways/connections -Use additional lanes feature for single lane widenings

Things to Remember Gather as much information as possible
Clearly define the scope Document both the scope and any assumptions Look for similar projects that may have been built recently Acknowledge unknowns, include a contingency Get feedback and buy-in from others If using PCES, don’t over simplify -Just reiterating some things already mentioned -When looking at similar projects use caution, it’s rare that all circumstances are the same -Many of these things seem common sense, but you would be surprised how many times they are overlooked and not done -PCES is a good tool. Don’t just plug a couple numbers in and call it done though.

Questions? Things to Remember
How to get a copy of the Project Cost Estimating Spreadsheet: Request a copy from your VDOT Project Coordinator Request a login to access PCES through our systems Questions?

P.E. Phase Scheduling & Estimating – Best Practices
Brian A. Henschel, P.E., CCM, PMP Whitman Requardt and Associates, LLP

Best Practices Goals of Session
Best Practices for applying Scheduling and Estimating Tools Identify Tested Processes and Practices for Staying On Schedule and Within Budget Narrowing the Target – Identifying Project Goals and Defining Success

P.E. Scheduling Importance of a Good Schedule
Sets goals / targets the team is accountable to Directly tied to Budget Identifies Critical Path to Delivery for Construction Identifies Resources and Effort to Reach Construction Track Planned and Unplanned Impacts

P.E. Scheduling Importance of Scheduling to VDOT
Schedules are the basis for: Six Year Improvement Program (SYIP/SSYP) Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP)/MPO Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) Federal Authorizations Federal Strategy Cash Forecasting Project Close Out

P.E. Scheduling Importance of Scheduling to Localities
If it’s important to VDOT….it’s important to localities (see previous slide) Dual constraints VDOT lead time for reviews & approvals Locality lead time for ordinance & Council approvals Dashboard Performance metrics matter Need to understand the rules of the game

P.E. Scheduling Importance of Scheduling to Localities
What are the Challenges for Localities? Unlike VDOT, localities may not have a staff of scheduling experts Timelines based on overly optimistic durations Underestimate VDOT review/approval times Perfection gets in the way of good enough Private utility relocations take longer than expected Desire to work with property owners in lieu of using condemnation Local politics

P.E. Scheduling Tools for Success
Starts with a Clear Scope Align Stakeholders Who are they? Involving VDOT as an early Stakeholder Community Involvement Clear Limits & Features Say NO! to Scope Creep

Set Goals and Obtain Buy-in Get commitments for dates, milestones and resources Internal Alignment of Priorities Strategy for Procurement Develop Resource Plan Count the Costs Evaluate Internal Resources Be Realistic about Requirements Obtain Authority to Commit Resources

P.E. Scheduling Tools for Success Duties / Responsibilities
Resource Plan Name Role Firm Duties / Responsibilities Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 John Maddox, P.E. Design Manager WRA Project and Design Management, Discipline Coordination, Client Interaction, Meeting Facilitation 25% 15% 10% Michael Russell, P.E. Quality Assurance Qaulity Assurance, Design Review, Milestone Meeting Participation, Constructability 5% Taylor Sprenkle Environmental SERP, NEPA, Wetland Delineation, Stream Mitigation, Environmental Design 75% 100% 50% Dan Seli, P.E. Utilities Utility Design, UFI, Utility Relocation Coordination 20% Jeff Basford, P.E. Geotechnical Geotechnical investigation and report, design recommendations Mark Vasco, P.E. Roadway Lead Roadway Design, discipline coordination, meeting participation Jeremy Schlussel, P.E. Bridge Bridge Design, discipline coordination, meeting participation Dave Gertz, P.E. Drainage Drainage / Storm Water Management design Dana Trone, P.E. Traffic / Signals Traffic analysis, MOT, Signal design Brian Henschel, P.E., CCM, PMP Project Controls / Constructability Engineering support - Constructability Review, Bidability Review, Pre-Ad CPM Scheduling, Cost Estimating, Bid Analysis Total Resources Needed: 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.7 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.4

Active Project Management Comparison to Passive Management Regular Updates and Schedule Maintenance Seek Opportunity for Concurrency and Time Savings Avoid Scope Creep Notify Parties of Responsibilities Prepare for Change

Identify Risks Realistic Timeframes Procure Design / CEI Services Environmental, ROW & Utilities Knowledge of State & Federal Processes Risk Management Probability x Impact Key Early Project Meeting

Risk Matrix

P.E. Scheduling Tools for Success Quantifying Potential Impacts

P.E. Estimating Importance of a Good Estimate
New Paradigm – Smart Scale Key Factor in Obtaining Funding Constrains Scope Locality Responsible for Funding in Excess of Budget

P.E. Estimating Components of an Estimate
Design Costs ROW & Utilities CEI & Support Services Construction Cost Third Party Costs Contingency Budget Incentive / Disincentives

P.E. Estimating Design Costs
Consider the available funding Consider the schedule Don’t get surprised by project requirements Value Engineering Environmental Permits & Mitigation Public Involvement Design Standard Changes Scope Creep VDOT Oversight Review Time Unknowns (Known/Unknown) Time Equals Money $$$(Present Value/ Future Worth)

P.E. Estimating ROW & Utilities
HIGH Risk of impact Be conservative in estimating Property Acquisitions Easements Utility Relocations Carefully Monitor/Update Estimates Identify other High Risk Elements Geotechnical Uncertainty Railroad ROW

P.E. Estimating Inspection Services (CEI)
Internal vs. Consultant vs. VDOT What to Expect – Common Allowances Small versus Large Federal vs. State vs. Local Funded Widening vs. New Alignment vs. Bridge Coverage Requirements Funding Dependent Risk Dependent

P.E. Estimating Engineering Support Services
Evaluating what services to budget Value Engineering Constructability Bidability Pre-Advertisement CPM Schedule / CTDR Procurement Assistance Construction Estimate Bid Analysis Construction Phase – Shop Drawing Review, RFI’s, Submittals

P.E. Estimating Pre-Advertisement CPM Schedule
Importance of a Pre-Ad CPM Schedule Set accurate Contract Time Duration Impacts of a short or long contract duration Directly tied to Construction Cost Critical Tool for identifying impact of delayed Advertisement Indicates Resources need to administer Construction

P.E. Estimating Construction Costs
Factors in Construction Estimating Time of Year for bid / construction Full construction season? Forced winter work? Construction start in middle of season? Other area projects competing for resources and materials Degree of Risk placed on Contractor Special Provisions Availability of Work – Linear or Concurrent Handling of Unknowns

P.E. Estimating Construction Costs
Factors in Construction Estimating Project Features Complexity of project Size of project – and quantities Urban / Rural Rehab / Widening /New Alignment Proximity of Traffic Proximity to business Degree of multi-modal use, especially in pedestrian Access issues – only one way in? Restricted flow in/out? Time constraints (TOYR or compressed schedule) Number of specialty features Base Rate Adjustment Factors Factors Adjustment for Noted Conditions Location Rural = 1.0 Small City = 1.15 Big City = 1.3 Traffic Conditions Light = 1.0 Moderate = 1.10 High = 1.4 Complexity Low = 1.0 Medium = 1.15 Soil Conditions Good = 1.0 Fair = 1.15 Poor = 1.5 Quantity of Work Large = 1.0 Medium = 1.10 Small = 1.33

P.E. Estimating Third Party Costs
VDOT Oversight Local Utility Agency Railroad Police

P.E. Estimating Contingency Planning
Estimating Contingencies Evaluate Project Risk Evaluate Project Stakeholders Evaluate Project Complexity Factors Common Contingency Percentages Tier 1 – 5% Tier 2 – 10% Small / Complex / High Risk – Higher %? Tier 1 – all Maintenance, SAAPs, NFO < $5M; Tier 2 – All FO, NFO >$5M, D-B

P.E. Estimating Incentives / Disincentives
When to Apply Incentives and Disincentives VDOT encourages evaluation on all projects An eligible expense! (But must be budgeted) Tools for Calculating HUBCAP Analysis Special Concerns and Considerations

PE Scheduling and Estimating
Questions??

Estimating and Scheduling Track C Breakout Session #4

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Estimating and Scheduling Track C Breakout Session #4

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