Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Regional Skills Assessment 2016
South of Scotland Region comprising the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway OK Glasgow

Contents Section 1: Introducing the Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)
Section 2: National Policy Context Section 3: The National Economic and Skills Context Section 4: South of Scotland in Context Section 5: Economic Performance of the South of Scotland Section 6: South of Scotland Business Base Section 7: Where are the jobs in South of Scotland Section 8: The People of South of Scotland Section 9: South of Scotland Labour Market Section 10: Skills Challenges in South of Scotland Section 11: Schools numbers and destinations in South of Scotland Section 12: Skills Provision in South of Scotland Section 13: College Activity Section 14: University Provision Section 15: How are Skills and Jobs Likely to Change? Section 16: What are the key implications for the Region? Glasgow

1. Introducing the RSAs In this section:
What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? What is not covered by the RSAs? Other sources of useful information Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
Regional Skills Assessments provide a coherent evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets Their purpose is to: Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses. Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills. Support wider public and private investment propositions. Glasgow

The 2016 Regional Skills Assessments
RSAs are developed by Skills Development Scotland (SDS) in partnership with Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development (SLAED) Group. They cover demand for skills, supply of people and skills, skills provision and skills challenges. ….and include employment and GVA forecasts and trends to help identify future skills needs RSA cover: Regional performance and characteristics Trends over time How does the region compare to Scotland High level implications for skills planning Provide a data matrix to allow further analysis RSAs do not: Answer every question... however can be used alongside data matrix and other national and local intelligence Tell partners what they should do – although RSAs are designed to support making better informed decisions Glasgow

RSA data sources and coverage
The Regional Skills Assessments are underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on 117 social and economic indicators With data at 3 spatial levels: Regional Outcome Agreement areas; City Region Deal; Local Authority – with Scotland and GB/UK comparators where available The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE). No primary research is involved. The data matrix is found here: The data matrix including a full user guide is available at: do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments Data Matrix sources include: Annual Population Survey Business Register Employment Survey UKCES Employer Skills Survey UK Business Counts Census Data Scottish Government Growth Sector datasets Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Partner data sources include: SDS Participation Measure data SDS Apprenticeship Family data SE and HIE data on Regional Selective Assistance and Account Managed businesses supported SLAED data on major infrastructure projects Glasgow

Other useful sources and publications
Other useful sources of current and forthcoming information are available. Scottish Government Labour Market Strategy Scottish Government Economic Strategy Sectoral and Regional Skills Investment Plans UKCES Employer Survey data Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Reports RBS Business Monitor Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index Glasgow

2: National Policy Context
In this section: Government Economic Strategy Labour Market Strategy Youth Employment Strategy Skills Planning Model Scotland’s Skills Agencies Enterprise and Skills Review Glasgow

Economic Strategy (1) Scotland’s Economic Strategy (2015) reaffirms the Scottish Government’s commitment to creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. It sets out an overarching framework for achieving the two mutually supportive goals of increasing competitiveness and tackling inequality. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy and prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining focus on increasing internationalisation.

Labour Market Strategy (2)
Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy (2016) sets out for the first time how the labour market and wider social and economic policies interact to drive ambitions for inclusive growth. It provides a framework for the approach to the labour market, and describes the actions that will be taken to deliver the vision. Vision: “A strong labour market that drives inclusive, sustainable economic growth, characterised by growing, competitive businesses, high employment, a skilled population capable of meeting the needs of employers, and where fair work is central to improving the lives of individuals and their families.“ Five priorities: promoting the Fair Work Framework and encouraging responsible business; supporting employability and skills, so that all of our people can participate successfully in the labour market; investing in our people and our infrastructure; fostering innovation including workplace innovation which will help spur job creation; and promoting Scotland internationally to improve the competitiveness of our businesses.

Youth Employment (3) Developing the Young Workforce – Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy (2014) sets out how the Scottish Government will implement the recommendations from the Commission for Developing Scotland's Young Workforce, with headline target to reduce youth unemployment by 40% by 2021:

Skills Planning Model (4)
Regional Skills Assessments are at the heart of Scotland’s Skills Planning Model by providing an evidence base to understand demand for skills and to influence planning and investment to meet demand.

Scotland’s Skills Agencies (5)
Skills Development Scotland and the Scottish Funding Council are the two core skills agencies for Scotland. Skills Development Scotland Making Skills Work for Scotland: Employers are better able to recruit the right people with the right skills at the right time Employers have high performing, highly productive, fair and equal workplaces People have the right skills and confidence to secure good work, progress in their careers and achieve their full potential Across all SDS services and programmes, there is increased equality of opportunity SDS is recognised as an employer of choice, an exemplar of fair work, and internationally recognised for excellence, innovation and customer focus Scottish Funding Council, Ambition 2025: Scotland - the Best Place in the World to Learn, to Educate, to Research and to Innovate “Our ambition is that Scotland will be the best place in the world to learn, to educate, to research, and to innovate……with colleges and universities making a major contribution to Scotland’s social, cultural and economic development.” Priority outcomes: High-quality learning and teaching World-leading research Greater innovation in the economy.

Enterprise & Skills Review (6)
Report on Phase One (2016) included a series of recommendations of relevance to skills investment planning “We will align the functions of our skills agencies to better join up how learning and skills are planned and provided to learners and employers.” “We will conduct a comprehensive review of the Learning Journey focused on sustained employment, with significantly enhanced use of labour market information in skills planning at its heart.” “We will review the effectiveness of our investment in learning and skills to ensure we have the right balance of provision across age groups and sectors and maximise its contribution to productivity and inclusive growth.” Next steps; Regional partnerships Digital Enterprise support

3: Scotland’s Economic and Skills Context
In this section: Economic Recession to Recovery Productivity Employment Non Standard Jobs Occupational Change In Work poverty Skills Challenges Scotland’s people Looking to the Future Glasgow

Economic Recession to Recovery (1)
The ‘great recession’ in 2008 was the longest and deepest recession in the UK since the 1930s. The UK posted the slowest recovery of any advanced economy (aside from Italy and Greece) with recovery only taking hold after pause to fiscal consolidation in 2012 and consumer spending and investment. Scotland’s recession was shallower than the UK. The rate of recovery has been variable across sectors. Recession and Recovery in Scotland Output Source: Adapted from Fraser of Allander. March 2016 Glasgow

Productivity (2) Productivity in Scotland
Moderated growth in the international economy and Scotland and poor productivity growth presents challenging conditions for many sectors and industries. Productivity in Scotland UK trails G7 advanced economies on productivity by 18 percentage points. Scotland trails UK. UK trails US productivity across all sectors, especially manufacturing. There is evidence that the UK manufacturing productivity in line with France/ Germany. But significant deterioration versus Europe in financial services and private service sector. Productivity improvements have been muted at a Scottish level over the last six years and have fallen behind wages growth. This suggests a weakening of Scotland’s competitive advantage. Fraser of Allander Institute argue that total factor productivity in Scotland is much lower than UK. In the absence of faster Scottish population growth, sustained economic growth will require raising competitiveness. Glasgow

Employment (3) Jobs in Scotland
Total employment in Scotland continued to fall until 2012, but has risen sharply since then. Total employment in was 1.5% greater than in 2009, although this is compared to a 7% increase in the UK. This has been dominated by private sector growth alongside a fall in public sector employment. Jobs in Scotland Employment Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, Glasgow

Non Standard Jobs (4) The Rise of Non-Standard Work
Although Scotland is experiencing a growth in total employment since pre-recession times, a large part of this is due to the rise of ‘non standard jobs’ – part time, temporary and self employment. Of the new jobs created since the recovery, 50,000+ have been part time jobs, 35,000+ have been self-employed jobs and more than 13,000+ have been temporary jobs. Only 9,000 or so have been full time jobs. The Rise of Non-Standard Work Employment change in Scotland and the UK, 2008 – 2015 Source: Labour Force Survey Glasgow

Occupational Change (5)
The occupational shift has seen a polarisation of employment with a strong bias towards higher skilled occupations. In effect, what we are seeing is an hour glass labour market. This represents significant challenges for progression. Occupational Shifts Source: 2011 Census, Labour Force Survey, Oxford Economics Glasgow

In-Work Poverty (6) Low Pay and in-work Poverty
Historically, being in work was seen as a way of escaping poverty, however more recently this is not the case for all. In 2014/15 , 260,000 people or 55% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, before housing costs (BHC). In 2014/15, 350,000 people or 58% of working age adults living in poverty were living in households where at least one adult was working, after housing costs (AHC). In-work poverty can be a particular challenge for some groups – women, younger people, older workers, those with no qualifications, some ethnic groups, lone parents and people with disabilities. Low Pay and in-work Poverty In-work poverty (relative poverty AHC) in Scotland: 1998/99 to 2014/15 Number of individuals in poverty in households with at least one adult in employment Source:HBAI dataset, DWP Glasgow

Skills Challenges (7) Current Skills Challenges in Scotland (From Employer Skills Survey 2015) Steep rise in vacancies from 54,000 (2013) to 74,000 (2015) – reflecting higher demand for labour. Proportion of establishments reporting Skills Shortage Vacancies in Scotland rose from 3% (2011) to 4% (2013) and 6% (2015) – in line with UK trends. Proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps fell to 14% (2015) – same as at UK level. Increasing levels of under-employment and under-utilisation of skills – 32% of establishments reported at least one member of staff with both skills and qualifications above the level required for the job. Skills shortages and recruitment difficulties are likely to be a permanent feature of the Scottish labour market, particularly where experienced labour is required. Along with under-employment and under-utilisation of skills, this will make improving productivity a challenging task. Glasgow

Scotland’s People (8) People and Demographics
There has been a strong population increase in Scotland, driven by in migration. The population is, however, an ageing one, with changing age demographics. This means there is considerable competition for young people. The majority of people in the workforce over the next 10 years are already working. People and Demographics Source: Mid Year Population Estimates Glasgow

The Future - Scotland’s People (9.1)
Over the period , the population of Scotland is forecast to grow by 9% to reach just under 5.8 million by The ageing of the population is forecast to continue however with the highest percentage of growth forecast in those age groups and 75+. Population Projections Source: General Register Office for Scotland Glasgow

The Future – GVA (9.2) Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland
GVA for Scotland is forecast to steadily increase over the period Looking Forward – GVA for Scotland Source: ONS, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment (9.3)
Although employment is forecast to contract between , this will be followed by growth from In 2024, this would be equivalent to just under 47,500 additional jobs in the economy compared to levels. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Employment by Industry (9.4)
Not all industrial sectors will fare the same in terms of employment growth. It is forecast that there will be growth in Construction, Professional, scientific and technical activities and Administrative and Support Services whereas there will be a major decline in Manufacturing, Mining and Quarrying and Public sector jobs. Looking Forward - Employment Source: BRES, ONS workforce jobs, Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Total Jobs Requirement (9.5)
Although understanding growth is important, a crucial part of skills planning is being able to understand the likely jobs that will arise as a result of both expansion demand (growth/contraction) and also replacement demand (churn in the labour market). Total jobs forecast to be filled in the period is 980,600 with most of these arising due to replacement demand and a very small proportion (c.26.5k) arising from growth. Looking Forward – Total Jobs requirement Total jobs requirement from Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The Future – Qualifications (9.6)
Based on the total jobs requirement for , the forecast for qualifications required shows that the vast majority of requirement is for people qualified at higher level - SCQF7 and above. Only a small proportion of opportunities will be available for people with no-low qualifications. Looking Forward - Qualifications Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

4. South of Scotland in Context
The context within which a region operates plays a huge part in explaining a region’s performance. Historical factors, the composition of the industrial sector, geographic location, image and demographics are all at play. It is important to provide the regional context before presenting demand and skills supply data. In this section: South of Scotland’s contribution to Scotland’s economy Key sectoral characteristics Key labour market performance Deprivation and living standards Earnings and Commuting Patterns Glasgow

South of Scotland Region in Context (1)
The South of Scotland is a largely rural region which generates around 3% of the total output of Scotland as measured by Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. The region’s proportion of the Scotland GVA total has fallen from 3.3% to 2.9% over the last 10 years. Total GVA in 2014 (latest data) was £4,479m in real prices. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. . South of Scotland Region’s Contribution to Scotland’s Economy Total GVA in the region and the region’s share of total Scotland GVA Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

South of Scotland in Context (2)
The manufacturing sector remains important to the South of Scotland economy in terms of output, and at 13% this is one of the largest sectors along with wholesale and retail trade and human health and social work activities. Agriculture, forestry and fishing plays a larger part in the economy of the South of Scotland than in Scotland as a whole. There is a weaker professional, business and financial services sector in the South of Scotland than elsewhere. For more on GVA see Section 5: Economic Performance. Industrial Structure of South of Scotland (GVA by sector) 2014 Total GVA (£m) at 2013 prices Source: Oxford Economics forecasts Glasgow

South of Scotland Region in Context (3)
There were 101,000 people employed in the South of Scotland in 2015, a decrease of 300 from These are people employed in VAT or PAYE-registered businesses and so excludes those who are self-employed and work for smaller firms. Total employment has fluctuated but has increased overall in the region since 2012 following a sharp recession-related fall between 2011 and Employment has now returned to above 2009 levels although there is a range of labour market dynamics at play. See Section 7 on Where are the Jobs and Section 9 on the Labour Market. Key Labour Market Performance Employment change South of Scotland, Scotland and Great Britain Source: Business Register Employment Survey Glasgow

The South of Scotland has a higher proportion of households with incomes of between £20,000 and £40,000 per annum, although it has a lower proportion of high earning households above £40,000. At the lower end of the scale, more households have incomes up to £6,000 than nationally. Households in the Borders are likely to be more affluent than in Dumfries & Galloway although many of these are likely to be retirees or those who commute out of the region north to Edinburgh or south to the North-East of England. Deprivation and Living Standards Source: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: Scottish Household Survey Glasgow

The South of Scotland region comprises two local authorities, Scottish Borders and Dumfries & Galloway which have different work patterns. In the Borders just over 20% work outside the region, predominantly in Edinburgh. This trend is set to continue with the opening of the Borders railway. Dumfries & Galloway on the other hand has a more contained labour market and less than 10% works outside of the region. Given the size of the region, there remain some long distances travelled to work or to study. More information is at Section 8: The People of the South of Scotland Commuting Flows Source: 2011 Census Glasgow

5: South of Scotland: Economic Performance
The economic performance of the region is a critical driver of the demand for skills. Successful businesses need high levels of productivity, with skills an important component of this, although not the only one, particularly as business processes become more mechanised. Economic performance is measured using Gross Value Added (GVA) per worker as the best measure of productivity. GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services produced. In this section: Total GVA and GVA growth rates GVA per sector GVA per employee (productivity) Forecast GVA growth Glasgow

Economic Performance (1)
Total GVA in the South of Scotland has had greater annual fluctuations than the case nationally. Pre-recession, growth was strong but the recession hit the region hard. In 2008, while Scottish GVA fell 0.7%, the South of Scotland fell by 4%. Since 2012 output has increased annually, above national growth in 2013 and just behind national growth in 2014. Total GVA in the South of Scotland Region, Source: Oxford Economics Total GVA £m at 2013 prices Glasgow

GVA per worker is a proxy measure for productivity. It describes the region’s output in relation to the numbers in employment. This is heavily influenced by the sector composition of the regional economy. Sectors such as professional, scientific and technical sector services for example are typically more productive than retail, tourism and agriculture, where the South of Scotland is over-represented. The GVA per worker has been rising in the region since 2011, albeit modestly and the level remains well below the Scotland average. GVA Per Employee (Productivity), Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

GVA output is forecast to grow in the South of Scotland, although at a rate no greater than the Scotland average, with the exception of 2021 when regional growth is expected to exceed the national rate. Growth of 11.8% is forecast 2015 to 2024, compared to 15.9% for Scotland. Uncertainty caused by the UK’s decision to leave the EU has dampened near-term growth prospects. GVA Output Growth Forecast, Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

The sectors which currently comprise the greater share of GVA are expected to continue to grow, including human health and social work, wholesale and retail trade and real estate activities. Information and communications is expected to grow strongly, up to 35% by 2024, although from a low base. Professional, scientific and technical activities are forecast to grow over 30% by Forecast Output Growth by Sector, Glasgow

6: South of Scotland: Business Base
The business base of the region is a strong determinant of the economic performance described in the previous section. Successful businesses need skilled and effective employees. This section presents an analysis of the business base by its industrial sector composition and other characteristics. In this section: Total number of businesses and growth rates Business base by sector Growth Sector businesses Business base by size Business density Business birth, death and survival rates Self employment Glasgow

Business Base (1) There were 11,375 VAT and PAYE registered businesses in the South of Scotland region in The rate of growth in the region’s business base has been slower than the Scotland average since 2011 with both 2011 and 2013 showing a decrease in the number of businesses in the region. The growth rate from 2014 to 2015 was 5.5% which was above the Great Britain rate of 5.2% but was still weaker than across Scotland. Total Number of Businesses and Growth Rates Number of businesses by year from 2010 – and growth rate comparators Source: UK Business Counts Change in number of business Glasgow

Business Base (2) Business Base by Sector, 2015
Almost one in three businesses in the South of Scotland (29%) are in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. This is almost three times the proportion in Scotland and reflects the importance of the sector to this largely rural economy. Production is also over represented in the South of Scotland. On the other hand, the region is under-represented in the professional, scientific and technical services sector, as well as higher growth sectors such as information and communication. Business Base by Sector, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (3) Growth Sector Businesses, 2015
The Scottish Government’s Economic Strategy identifies six growth sectors, detailed below, where Scotland has a distinct comparative advantage. A higher proportion of South of Scotland Growth Sector businesses are in food and drink (55% versus 23% for Scotland). The region is however under represented in all other growth sectors. Growth Sector Businesses, 2015 Number of businesses by growth sector 2015 – and proportion of all growth sector businesses Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Growth sector businesses as a proportion of all business, 2015 Glasgow

Business Base (4) Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013
The food and drink sector is the biggest contributor to growth sector GVA in the South of Scotland. Although a smaller sector than in many other regions, the financial and business services growth sector still comprises a quarter of growth sector GVA. Energy is the third biggest growth sector in South of Scotland but at 13% is under represented compared to the 60% contribution at the national level. Growth Sector Total GVA (£m), 2013 Source: Scottish Government Growth Sectors Database Total GVA (£m) at basic prices of Scottish Government Growth Sectors by sector, 2013 Some figures are supressed due to data being disclosive Growth sector total GVA as a % of all Growth Sector GVA, 2013 Glasgow

Business Base (5) Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015
The South of Scotland has a slightly greater proportion of micro-businesses employing fewer than 10 persons compared to Scotland. There are 20 large employers in the region employing more than 250 employees. Business density in the region is 431 business per 10,000 people compared to 313 per 10,000 in Scotland, reflecting higher numbers self-employed in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. Business by Size, 2015 Business Density, 2015 Number of businesses by employee size band and by proportion of all businesses, 2015 Source: UK Business Counts Glasgow

Business Base (6) Business survival rates in the South of Scotland region were slightly higher than for Scotland and Great Britain until 2014 where they fell below the national trends. In all, 47.6% of businesses starting in 2010 had survived until 2014 in the region, compared to 48% at both Scotland and Great Britain levels. The business birth rate has consistently been behind the Scottish and Great British average. Business Birth and Death Rates ( ) and Survival Rates ( ) Note: A business is deemed to have survived if still active 5 years after birth. Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-year Population Estimates Glasgow

Business Base (7) Self Employment, 2005-2015
Self-employment rates are the proportion of the resident working age (16-64) population who are self employed. Self employment rates in the South of Scotland grew from 2005 to 2014 followed by a decrease in The rate of self-employed worked in the South of Scotland is well above the Scottish average and may be as a result of the large agriculture, forestry and fishing sector which tends to be characterised by high levels of self-employment. Self Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec each year Glasgow

7. South of Scotland: Where are the Jobs?
Analysing the employment base of the region provides important information on the nature and functioning of the labour market. There have been significant occupational shifts in Scotland, reflected in changes in the South of Scotland region, where higher skilled occupation employment continues to increase. There has been jobs recovery since the recession, but not all of these have been good quality jobs. In this section: Total employment and rate of change Employment by sector and change over time Sectoral specialism Employment by occupation and change Non standard jobs – part time and non permanent Resident and workplace earnings Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (1) Total Employment and Change, 2009-2015
Following the sharp fall in employment numbers in 2012, employment in the South of Scotland enjoyed growth in the following two years. However, in 2015, the latest data available, there were 101,000 employees in the South of Scotland. This is a marginal fall from 2014 and a loss of 300 jobs. These are jobs in VAT and PAYE registered businesses. Total Employment and Change, Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (2) Employment by sector provides important information on the industrial composition of the regional economy. Employment in the health sector comprises the largest share of employment in the South of Scotland, well above the Scotland average. Production also remains important to the region, accounting for 12% of all employment, a higher proportion than Scotland and Great Britain. Retail is also well represented locally with 11,800 employed, representing 12% of the total employment in the region. Employment by Sector and Proportion of Total Employment 2015 Source: Business Register and Employment Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (3) Sector Specialisms
Marrying employment growth trends by sector with the size and concentration of the sector in a region can provide important information on the dynamics of the labour market. Concentration of a sector is the extent to which employment in the sector is above (or below) sector concentration at the Scotland level. Sector Specialisms Sectors above the horizontal line are more concentrated in the region than in Scotland, those below the line less so. Sectors to the right of the vertical line are larger in employment terms than five years ago, to the left less so. Larger bubbles reflect higher sector employment. The relatively large and concentrated accommodation & food sector is in the top right quadrant. However, the largest sectors (health, production and retail) in the top left quadrant have declined in terms of growth. Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (4) Employment by Occupation, 2015
The occupational profile of the region is important because occupation is often linked to skills requirements. Nationally, there has been a steady and continuing shift to more professional occupations. However, in the South of Scotland there has been a decrease in the percentage of the labour market in professional occupations, although it is still the second largest group in the region. The highest proportion of South of Scotland residents (16%) works in a skilled trade, higher than the Scotland and Great Britain averages. This is linked to the strength of the production sector in the region. Employment by Occupation, 2015 Change over time Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (5) Part-Time Employment 2005-2015
In 2015, 27% of those in employment worked part-time, which was slightly higher than Scotland and Great Britain. The proportion working part-time has continued to be above average annually since and the percentage increased post recession as more of the jobs created in the economic recovery have been part-time jobs. In addition, a higher proportion than Scotland and UK averages are in non-permanent employment. Part-Time Employment Non-Permanent Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey Non-permanent employment is the proportion of all of those of working age in employment types such as fixed- term contracts, temporary agency, casual or seasonal work. The increase in non-permanent employment reflects the changing nature of employment. Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Where are the Jobs (6) Some sectors are typically better paid than others, and the industrial base of the region is often an indicator of average wage levels. The composition of the industrial base within a region also affects workplace pay levels. Average workplace earnings in Scotland are £492 for all workers, however, both the Borders and Dumfries & Galloway are lower. Residence based earnings in Borders are much higher than average workplace earnings reflecting the significant number who commute to different areas, predominantly Edinburgh, for work. Average Weekly Workplace and Residence-based Earnings, 2015 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Glasgow

8: South of Scotland It’s People
The demographic characteristics of a region are extremely important in determining current and future demand for skills. The age profile of the population, the number of young people and elderly, the increasing proportion of retirees, are al contributory factors. The movement of people within a region, and into and out of a region, also affect the labour market and the supply of skills available to employers. In this section: Population growth Population profile Population projections Net migration Travel to work data Glasgow

People (1) Population Change over Time, 2005-2015
The South of Scotland’s population has grown slower than the Scotland average over the 10 years 2005 to 2015, with both lagging the rate of growth in Great Britain of 7.8%. The population of the South of Scotland decreased compared to growth for Scotland over the last year, , -0.1% compared to +0.5%. Population Change over Time, Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Year South of Scotland Scotland 2005 259,870 5,110,200 2006 260,640 5,133,100 2007 262,570 5,170,000 2008 264,370 5,202,900 2009 264,750 5,231,900 2010 264,790 5,262,200 2011 265,290 5,299,900 2012 264,560 5,313,600 2013 264,160 5,327,700 2014 264,000 5,347,600 2015 263,700 5,373,000 Change 3,830 262,800 % Change 1% 5% Glasgow

People (2) Age Profile of the Region, 20015
The South of Scotland has an older age profile than the Scotland average. This is driven by growth of the 65+ age band since 2005 (+22%, 11,400) compared to Scotland (+18%).The South of Scotland has also seen a higher decline in the age band than Scotland (-28% versus -16%) and has also had decline in the age band (-1%, 200) than Scotland (+12%). Overall, the working age population of the region decreased by 3,900 over the 10 years to 2015. Age Profile of the Region, 20015 Population Age Change, Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (3) Population Projections, 2014-37
Population Projections by Age, Source: National Records of Scotland The South of Scotland population is projected to fall compared to growth in Scotland as a whole to (-3% compared to +8%). The working age population is also projected to fall more sharply than nationally (-21% compared to - 4%). Over the longer term, the age structure of the region’s population is projected to become older. Year South of Scotland Scotland 2014 264,008 5,346,120 2015 263,848 5,365,420 2016 263,754 5,385,719 2017 263,722 5,406,997 2018 263,673 5,429,012 2019 263,620 5,451,660 2020 263,546 5,474,391 2021 263,456 5,497,079 2022 263,351 5,519,588 2023 263,202 5,541,816 2024 263,023 5,563,670 2025 262,803 5,585,040 2026 262,528 5,605,814 2027 262,205 5,625,892 2028 261,816 5,645,150 2029 261,363 5,663,541 2030 260,838 5,681,121 2031 260,236 5,697,808 2032 259,569 5,713,523 2033 258,846 5,728,318 2034 258,055 5,742,297 2035 257,202 5,755,558 2036 256,294 5,768,217 2037 255,344 5,780,371 Change -8,664 434,251 % Change -3% 8% Glasgow

People (4) Net Migration, 2004/5 – 2014/15
There has been a low amount of net migration into the South of Scotland in recent years. Net migration reached its lowest level in 2011/12, (-83) although this has since recovered in the years up to 2014/15, to 765. The age band has seen high net migration out of the South of Scotland (-474) in 2014/15. Net Migration, 2004/5 – 2014/15 Net Migration by Age, 2014/15 Source: National Records of Scotland Glasgow

People (5) Travel to Work (2011 Census)
There is very little out commuting from the South of Scotland and between the two local authority areas, There are higher rates of out-commuting from the Scottish Borders, although only 22% of working residents work outside the area. Dumfries and Galloway is the most self contained labour market, with 91% working within Dumfries and Galloway. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number
People (6) The workplace population of the South of Scotland at the time of the last Census (2011) was 83,949, and of these workers, 93% were resident in the region. A smaller number of workers were commuting from elsewhere in Scotland or the UK into the South of Scotland (5,779). In total 13,195 people commuted out of the South of Scotland to work elsewhere in Scotland or the rest of the UK. This was dominated by workers from the Borders commuting out of the region to jobs in the rest of Scotland, predominantly to Edinburgh and the Central Belt. Overall, there was a net flow of workers out of the South of Scotland. Travel to Work (2011 Census) Note: Not currently available in the data matrix Council area of workplace Total workplace population Lives and works in the area Inflow of workers - number Outflow of workers - number Net flow of workers Works in the area but lives elsewhere in Scotland Works in the area but lives in the rest of UK Lives in the area but works elsewhere in Scotland Lives in the area but works in the rest of the UK Within Scotland From the rest of the UK Total Dumfries & Galloway 49,674 46,767 1,379 1,528 1,541 3,036 -162 -1,508 -1,670 Scottish Borders 34,275 31,403 1,708 1,164 6,927 1,691 -5,219 -527 -5,746 Please note, location of employment figures exclude those working outside the UK, on offshore installations or with no fixed place of work Glasgow

9: South of Scotland Labour Market
The functioning of the labour market is influenced by labour market participation. Those unemployed or economically inactive will not be directly contributing to the economic success of the region, although their situation may be temporary, or indeed those inactive may be learning and studying and be a future contributor to the region. In this section: Age composition of workforce Economic activity Qualifications Participation Unemployment Glasgow

Labour Market (1) Economic Activity Rates, 2015-2015
The South of Scotland economic activity and inactivity rates have varied between 2005 and Economic activity decreased (to 76%) and inactivity increased (to 24%) between 2011 and 2012, before recovering to 82% and 20% respectively, in 2014 and Scotland’s rates have remained stable throughout, staying at 77-78% and 22-23% respectively. Economic Activity Rates, Economic Inactivity Rates, Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (2) Qualifications, 2015
The highest level qualifications of the resident working age population is a useful barometer of skills attainment levels. There remains a cohort in regional economies with no formal qualifications which used to be associated with older workers. Jobs increasingly require higher levels of qualification, including so-called entry level jobs. The South of Scotland has a less qualified working age population, with 36% qualified to SCQF Level 7-12, compared to 43% for Scotland. The proportion of the region with no qualifications is in line with the Scotland average of 9%. Qualifications, 2015 Source: Annual Population Survey Glasgow

Labour Market (3) Participation, 2016
The Participation Measure is a new measure which provides the ability to identify the status of the wider cohort – not just those who have left school. Participation of young people aged in the South of Scotland was 91%, above the Scottish rate of 90%. Participation, 2016 Source: Skills Development Scotland South of Scotland Scotland Number % Total Cohort (16-19) 11,317 Participating (16-19) 10,292 91% 90% Education 8,067 71% Employment 2,024 18% 17% Other Training & Development 201 2% Not Participating (16-19) 368 3% 4% Unemployed Seeking 234 Unemployed not Seeking 134 1% Unconfirmed Status (16-19) 657 6% Glasgow

Labour Market (4) The way unemployment is measured is changing due to the introduction of Universal Credit. As such, the data is regarded as ‘experimental’ and care is needed when comparing to previous data (all regions have recorded a fall in claimant count unemployment under the new measure). Unemployment – Claimant Count (includes Universal Credit) – experimental measure Source: Job Seekers Allowance Year South of Scotland Scotland Great Britain May 2005 420 12,760 115,375 May 2006 470 13,265 141,970 May 2007 440 12,490 145,310 May 2008 290 7,825 99,735 May 2009 365 10,320 123,545 May 2010 790 20,870 252,170 May 2011 735 20,340 203,195 May 2012 1,305 35,725 378,480 May 2013 1,510 38,090 410,710 May 2014 1,170 29,470 310,865 May 2015 760 19,145 197,275 May 2016 585 16,515 158,520 Glasgow

10: South of Scotland Skills Challenges
Employers have specific skills needs, either amongst those they are seeking to recruit, or amongst those in their existing workforce. Skills shortage vacancies (SSVs) relate to the skills shortages amongst those being recruited, and skills gaps shortages relate to skills deficiencies within the existing workforce. The 2015 UKCES Employer Survey provides timely data in relation to these and other employer issues. In this section: Skills shortages Skills gaps Recruitment activity Skills under-utilisation Glasgow

Skills Challenges (1) Skills Shortages
The UKCES Employer Survey 2015 data indicates that across the South of Scotland skills shortage vacancies are slightly more prevalent than across Scotland at 1.0% of the total workforce, compared to 0.8% in Scotland as a whole . Hard-to-fill vacancies due to skills shortages account for 1.1% of the workforce, compared to 1.1% in Scotland as a whole. In all, 5% of establishments report at least one hard to fill vacancy in the South of Scotland, compared to the Scotland average of 8%. Skills Shortages Source: UKCES South of Scotland Scotland Hard to fill vacancies as % of workforce 1.1% Skills shortage vacancies as % of workforce 1.0% 0.8% Glasgow

Skills Challenges(2) Skills Gaps
Skills gaps are those in employment that are regarded by employers are lacking some of the skills required for their job. Employers in the South of Scotland are slightly less likely to report skills gaps than the Scottish average. Around 4% of the workforce in the South of Scotland have skills gaps, just below the national average of 5%. 72% of employers with a skills gaps say there is an impact on the business (70% nationally) Skills Gaps by Occupation not available for South of Scotland Skills Gaps Source: UKCES Glasgow

Skills Challenges (3) Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation
Overall, 44% of South of Scotland businesses had recruited staff over the year prior to the 2015 UKCES survey, below the national average. The number of vacancies is below the Scottish average with 10% of employers in the South of Scotland with at least one vacancy. In addition, 28% of employers in the South of Scotland have staff who are under-utilised, which again is below the national average. Recruitment Challenges Skills Under-utilisation Source: UKCES Glasgow

11: South of Scotland Schools Data
The destinations of those leaving school has a clear bearing on the labour market, whether this is for employment, education and training, or none of these. The numbers leaving school and projected school roll numbers are also important as those at school will form a major part of the future labour market. In this section: School roll numbers School roll projections School leaver destinations Glasgow

Schools Data (1) Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group
There are 14,394 secondary school pupils in the South of Scotland (2015). The proportion of pupils across all the age groups is broadly similar to Scotland as a whole. Secondary School Roll Numbers and by Year Group Source: Scottish Government Pupil Census South of Scotland Scotland S1 2,587 50,813 S2 2,579 49,514 S3 2,592 50,197 S4 2,638 51,078 S5 2,306 45,817 S6 1,692 33,936 Total Pupils 14,394 281,355 Glasgow

Schools Data (2) Secondary School Roll Number Projections
Based on the latest available projections (2012), secondary school roll numbers are projected to decline by 3% over the period 2014 to This is compared to a 2% drop in numbers for Scotland in the same period of time. Secondary School Roll Number Projections Source: Scottish Government Pupil Projections South of Scotland Scotland 2014 14,400 282,800 2015 14,100 278,000 2016 13,900 275,300 2017 275,100 2018 14,000 277,900 Glasgow

Schools Data (3) School Leaver Destinations
Between 2013/14 and 2014/15, the South of Scotland has seen an increase of two percentage points in school leavers entering a positive destination to 94%, above the Scotland rate, 92%. There are slightly higher proportions of leavers entering Higher Education than in Scotland (39% v. 37%) with the proportion of South of Scotland leavers entering Higher Education increasing by one percentage point between 2013/14 and 2014/15. School Leaver Destinations Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset 2013/14 2014/15 South of Scotland Scotland Positive Destination 92% 94% Higher Education 38% 39% 37% Further Education 25% 24% 23% Training 1% 3% 2% Employment 27% 26% 28% Voluntary Work 0% Activity Agreement Unemployed Seeking 6% 7% 4% Unemployed Non-Seeking Unknown Glasgow

12: South of Scotland Skills Provision
There is a wide variety of skills and learning provision available which is designed to meet the future skills needs of the economy. Amongst this is the provision commissioned by Skills Development Scotland, notably via the Apprenticeship family of products (Modern Apprenticeships, Foundation Apprenticeships and Graduate Level Apprenticeships) and the Employability Fund and delivered by approved training providers including Colleges, Universities and Private training providers. In this section: Modern Apprenticeships, by participant characteristic and framework grouping Foundation Apprenticeships Graduate Level Apprenticeships Employability Fund and Certificate of Work Readiness starts Glasgow

Skills Provision (1) MA Total Number of Starts
Modern Apprenticeships (MA) help employers to develop their workforce by training new and existing employees. For individuals, an MA lets them earn a wage while gaining a qualification. MA uptake in both South of Scotland and nationally was at a peak in 2011/12. MA uptake in the South of Scotland in 2015/16 was 1,150 and represented 4% of the national total. In the same year in the South of Scotland, 41% of apprentices fell within the age group, slightly lower than the national total (50%). MA Total Number of Starts MA Starts 2015/16, by Age Glasgow

Skills Provision (2) MA Starts by Gender 2010-2016
The gender divide in MA uptake in South of Scotland has reduced from 2011/12 to match the national picture in 2015/16. In 2014/15 there was greater female uptake of MAs compared to the rate nationally. In 2015/16, the participation of disabled apprentices was slightly higher in the South of Scotland than nationally but substantially less than the 19% of working age population in Scotland with a disability. MA Starts by Gender MA Starts by Disability Note total of percentages might not equal 100% due to rounding. Glasgow

Skills Provision (3) MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16
The uptake of MAs in the South of Scotland region shows a similar mix of ethnicity to the overall national picture with less than 1% coming from a Black Minority and Ethnic (BME) background. This level of participation is well below the overall BME working population in Scotland of 3.1% (APS 2014). MA Starts by Ethnicity 2015/16

Skills Provision (4) The most popular group was Construction & Related (includes trades such as plumbing and joinery), which is also one of the most gender segregated groups with 98% male starts. Other male dominated groups include Automotive (100%), Engineering & Energy related (98%) and Transport and Logistics (93%), . Female participation was dominant in Personal Services, which includes hairdressing (94% female) and Sport, Health & Social Care (88% female). Modern Apprenticeship Starts by Framework Group and Gender Note: figures rounded to the nearest 5, figures less than 5 have suppressed. Percentages have been calculated on unrounded figures. Glasgow

Skills Provision (5) MA Achievement Rates 2010/11- 2015/16
MA achievement rates give the proportion of MA starts who completed their apprenticeship: gaining their target qualification and reaching work-based learning aims. Achievement rates in the South of Scotland have been consistently above the average rates for Scotland during the reporting period. In 2015/16, in the South of Scotland, 79% of candidates successfully completed their MA. This was above the national achievement rate, 76%. MA Achievement Rates 2010/ /16 Glasgow

Skills Provision (6) Foundation Apprenticeships (FA) were developed to help school pupils gain work experience and access work-based learning. S4 and S5 students spend time at college or with a local employer, and complete the FA alongside other subjects like National 5s and Highers. The qualification takes two years and can lead to employment or further study at college or university. FAs were piloted in some regions in 2014 and participation has grown over the past three years. The data shows uptake from the past two years and anticipated uptake for 2016/18. Foundation Apprenticeships, National Uptake 2014/ /18 Foundation Apprenticeships In 2016/18, the national uptake of FLA is expected to be over 300. In 2016/18 there are eight frameworks available, linked to six key sectors: Business Skills, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Financial Services, IT Hardware, IT Software, Social Services CYP, Social Services & Healthcare SDS aims to make FLA part of every secondary school’s offer by 2020. Glasgow

Skills Provision (7) Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development
Graduate Level Apprenticeships (GLAs) provide work-based learning opportunities up to Master’s degree level for employees. They have been created in partnership with industry and the further and higher education sector. Graduate Level Apprenticeships Future Development GLAs are currently available in: ICT/Digital: Software Development ICT/Digital: IT Management for Business Engineering: manufacturing and Design Civil Engineering Over the course of 2017 the intention is to expand the offer to include: Business and Management SCQF Level 10 Engineering (Instrumentation, Measurement and Control SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Cyber Security SCQF Level 10) IT and Digital (Digital Media SCQF Level 10) Life Sciences SCQF Level 10 Children and Young People SCQF Level 8 Glasgow

Skills Provision (8) The Employability Fund (EF) supports locally delivered services designed to encourage unemployed people to move towards work. SDS administers EF on behalf of Scottish Government*. The uptake of EF starts in South of Scotland represented 3.7% of the total participants in Scotland and the gender split was in line with the national average with 64% male and 36% female participation. Employability Fund Starts 2015/16, Total and by Gender *All data provided relates only to SDS funded activity. As other entities administer EF programme the data will not reflect total participation Glasgow

Skills Provision (9) The Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR) addresses the challenge for young people of gaining work experience and workplace skills when entering the labour market. The CWR provides young people with 190 hours of work experience and an assessment from an employer to prove to future employers they have established workplace competencies. In 2015/16 5% of the total individual starts came from South of Scotland. A slightly higher 7% of employers involved in the scheme were located in the South of Scotland. Certificate of Work Readiness 2015/16, Starts and Employers Glasgow

13. South of Scotland: College Activity
Colleges provide a range of opportunities for all students, regardless of prior achievement, from access courses to degree level qualifications and the Apprenticeship Family to meet national, regional and local economic needs. Qualifications include National 4 & 5s, NQ, HNC, HND and Degrees. Colleges also provide qualifications towards Foundation and Modern Apprenticeships. Data in this section relates to enrolments at both Dumfries & Galloway College and Borders College; and was provided by Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: College activity by age and gender Travel to study: location of students College activity by subject Gaelic language activity College activity: FE/HE Outcomes and destinations Glasgow

College Activity (1) 2015/16 college enrolments
In 2015/16, there were 11,355 enrolments at colleges in the South of Scotland, 4% of all enrolments across Scotland. Most enrolments were on part-time courses, similar to the trend nationally. Both regionally and nationally, the 25+ group was the largest overall in terms of enrolments. This age group accounted for 20% of full-time enrolments and 66% of part-time enrolments. This suggests that college activity is characterised by older students on part-time courses and younger students on full-time courses. 2015/16 college enrolments 2015/16 college enrolments by age Note: Unless otherwise stated all data shows total college enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (2) 2015/16 college enrolments by gender
Nationally in 2015/16, females (51%) accounted for slightly more enrolments than males (49%). This was also true at colleges in the South of Scotland, with a slightly wider gender gap (55% female, 45% male). In terms of home area, the majority of students (95% of enrolments) came from within the South of Scotland. 2015/16 college enrolments by gender 2015/16 college enrolments by home area Glasgow

College Activity (3) College enrolments by SIMD
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) measure shows that in 2015/16 proportionally fewer college enrolments in the South of Scotland (6%) came from the 10% most deprived areas, compared to Scotland as a whole (15%). However, it should be noted that SIMD measure does not fully reflect the challenges facing rural communities Compared to colleges across Scotland, the South of Scotland had proportionally fewer enrolments in Higher Education (HE) (10% vs. 18%) and more in Further Education (FE) (90% vs. 82%). College enrolments by SIMD College enrolments by HE/FE Note: Further Education (FE) refers to courses leading to qualifications up to SCQF level 7. Higher Education (HE) refers to courses at SCQF level 7 and above. Glasgow

College Activity (4) Of the 11,355 enrolments at colleges in the South of Scotland, 13% were in Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) subjects. The proportion of full-time and part-time enrolments that were in STEM subjects were varied, 20% and 11% respectively. 23% of male enrolments in the colleges were in STEM subjects, whereas the figure was much lower for female enrolments (4%). Electrical Engineering had the greatest number of STEM enrolments in 2015/16 and accounted for nearly a fifth (18%) of all STEM enrolments. College enrolments - STEM subject and mode of study Ten largest STEM subject areas by total enrolments Glasgow

College Activity (5) Care was the largest subject area in terms of full-time enrolments in the South of Scotland in 2015/16. It was also one of the most gender segregated subjects with females accounting for 90% of enrolments. Across Scotland, Care was the largest subject area by full-time enrolments. Gender segregation was greatest in Hairdressing (98% female) and Construction (96% male). Special programmes was the most gender equal subject area (57% male), Special programmes includes courses in self-development, continuing education and courses for disabled people. College enrolments by full-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (6) In 2015/16, similar to the national picture Care had the greatest number of part-time enrolments in the South of Scotland. This subject accounted for almost a third (31%) of all part-time enrolments in the region. Gender imbalance was greatest in Construction (89% male) and Sport and leisure (82% male). On the other hand, Performing arts was the only part-time subject to have a gender balance (50:50). College enrolments by part-time subject, total and % male, female Glasgow

College Activity (7) Gaelic FE enrolments
Enrolment of students on Gaelic FE courses varies considerably across the country. The Highlands & Islands had the greatest uptake, with enrolments increasing by 14% from 2014/15 to 2015/16. Gaelic uptake across other regions is mixed, with nine regions, including the South of Scotland, reporting no Gaelic college activity. Overall Gaelic enrolments across Scotland increased by 12% from 2014/15 to 2015/16, rising from 1,260 to 1,405. Gaelic FE enrolments Note: Data is institution rather than resident-based Glasgow

College Activity (8) 2015/16 FE student outcomes
In 2015/16, 64% of South of Scotland FE students successfully completed their course. This was lower than the 66% success rate achieved across Scotland. In terms of destination (2014/15), 25% entered employment, above the national average. 68% of learners progressed onto additional education or training, including higher level study or Modern Apprenticeships. 2015/16 FE student outcomes 2014/15 college destinations Note: Completed partial success indicates that a student completed the course but did not gain the qualification. This also includes students who gained employment before finishing the course or transferred to another course Glasgow

14. South of Scotland: University Provision
Scotland has strong university provision with more world-class universities than any other country by head of population. There are five universities in Scotland that are ranked in the world’s top 200 (2015 Times Higher Education rankings). Scotland’s universities play a major role in developing a skilled workforce. In the South of Scotland, Heriot-Watt University Galashiels campus, Glasgow University Dumfries campus, the University of the West of Scotland’s Dumfries campus and Scotland’s Rural College Barony campus provide educational opportunities to residents and also attracts students to the region. Data in this section was provided by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC). In this section: Study destination for region’s residents Students numbers within the region by gender, age and home area Subject choice Student graduation by level Student destinations by employment and industry Glasgow

University Provision (1)
There were four Higher Education Institutions (HEI) in the South of Scotland in 2014/15. These were Heriot-Watt University Galashiels campus (Heriot-Watt Galashiels), Glasgow University Dumfries campus (Glasgow University Dumfries), University of West Scotland Dumfries campus (UWS Dumfries) and Scotland’s Rural College Barony (SRUC Barony) . The largest institution was Heriot-Watt Galashiels, which accounted for 39% of university students in the region, closely followed by UWS Dumfries 37%. Students at HEIs in South of Scotland 2014/15 Note: Unless otherwise stated, data on this and subsequent slides is institution, not resident based and refers to university campuses located in Scotland and excludes study with the Open University Scotland, campuses outside of Scotland and incomplete records.

In 2014/15, the number of students at HEI campuses in the South of Scotland fell (6% decrease) from the previous year and comprised 1% of the Scotland total. Across Scotland university student numbers grew by 1%. The gender split in the South of Scotland was 82% female and 18% male, a wider gender gap than the national average 58% female and 42% male. 2013/14-14/15 total student number 2014/15 HEI students, by gender Glasgow

In 2014/15, the largest student cohort by age at HEIs in the South of Scotland were those in the age range. This was similar to the national picture. 46% students attending university campuses in the South of Scotland came from within the region and a further 40% from elsewhere in Scotland. HEIs in the South of Scotland had 7% elsewhere in the UK and 8% from outside the UK, lower than the national trend. 2014/15 university students, by age 2014/15 university students, by home area Glasgow

In 2014/15, 6,240 people from the South of Scotland studied at a number of Higher Education Institutions across Scotland. The most popular were the University of West of Scotland and the Open University (both 14%, followed by the University of Edinburgh (11% .) Top 5 universities attended by South of Scotland residents 2014/15

In 2014/15 at HEI campuses in the South of Scotland, the most popular subject was Creative Arts and Design (36%), a much higher proportion than across Scotland (5% of total). The uptake of this subject in the region is partly the result of the specialism at Heriot Watt Galashiels campus. The second most popular subject was Subjects allied to medicine. This reflects Health being the top employer in the region, as per Section 7. Where are the Jobs. 2014/15 total enrolment of students at HE Institutions, by subject Glasgow

In 2014/15, 90% of students who studied at HEI campuses in the South of Scotland graduated with a first degree. The remaining 10% achieved a postgraduate qualification. This differed to the national trend with 65% of all Scottish graduates completing a first degree and 35% completing a postgraduate course. 2014/15 university graduates by level of study Glasgow

Data on this and the following two slides was provided by the HESA Graduate Destinations Survey which surveys a sample of Higher Education Institute graduates six months after leaving university. In 2014/15, the majority of graduates from HEIs in the South of Scotland entered full-time work (68%), which was higher than the percentage nationally (61%). Of those surveyed 6% were unemployed, which was above the national trend (5%). 2014/15 university graduates by employment status Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from HEI campuses in the South of Scotland went on to work in a range of occupations. The largest percentage (43%) were engaged as professionals and the smallest percentage (0.4%) as operatives. Proportionally more graduates from HEIs in the South of Scotland went to work in higher level occupations compared to the trend nationally. 2014/15 university graduates by occupation Glasgow

In 2014/15, graduates from HEI campuses in the South of Scotland worked in a wide range of industries. The largest group entered the health and social work sector (19%) closely followed by the wholesale and retail trade sector (16 %) and education (13%). 2014/15 university graduates, employment by industry Glasgow

15. South of Scotland: Jobs and skills changes
This section will outline forecasted changes in employment from 2016 to 2024, and the nature of changing demand for qualifications in specific occupational areas. It will also consider longer term changes in the labour market and future expansion and replacement employment demand. In this section: Forecasts demand for jobs and how these may change Changing Occupational and qualification demand Long-term changes in the labour market Glasgow

Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to contract over by 0.1% per year on average, below the Scottish average of 0.2% growth each year. This equates to a loss of 1,500 jobs over the forecast. Manufacturing is expected to decline by 1,200 jobs and the public sector by 700 jobs. Agriculture (500 jobs) and education (400 jobs) are also expected to be lost. Construction and professional, scientific and technical activities by contrast are expected to grow by 400 jobs each over the period. There will also be some growth in the administrative and support activities and human health and social work sectors (300 jobs each) as well as arts, entertainment and recreation (200 jobs). Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Total Employment Growth South of Scotland Employment % annual average change Change in total jobs (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people). The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job. Source: ONS / Oxford Economics Glasgow

Some modest growth (100 jobs) is forecast in caring, leisure and other service occupations over the period In line with the contraction forecast in overall employment, none of the other occupational groupings are expected to grow. The biggest declines will be in skilled trades occupations and process, plant and machine operatives (400 jobs each) and administrative and secretarial occupations (300 jobs). The other occupational groupings are expected to contract by 100 jobs each over the period. Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand South of Scotland Employment Change in number of workers (‘000s), Note: chart uses total employment (people). Source: Oxford Economics ‘000s Glasgow

The majority of openings in the South of Scotland over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in part a reflection of the sectoral and occupational trends expected over this period. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above will account for 54% of the 34,300 openings expected to be created between 2016 and The remaining opportunities will mainly be for individuals qualified to SCQF levels 5-6, equivalent to 37% of openings over the forecast period. The net requirement at these levels, however, will be driven solely by replacement demand. Forecast employment change by Qualification ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

Replacement demand will result in over 34,000 openings within the South of Scotland over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to fall by 1,700 between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 34,100 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary occupations, driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in skilled trades and professional occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, again driven by replacement demand. Forecast Demand for Jobs ( ) Notes: table uses total requirement (people) totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table Source: Oxford Economics Glasgow

16. South of Scotland: What are the key implications?
The Regional Skills Assessments provide the national policy context, the national economic picture and trends and the regional position. The regional perspective covers in some depth the demand for skills, current and forecast, as well as skills activity in place to meet these needs. There is a wide range of data, with further data available in the accompanying data matrix. This final section draws out some of the key implications for improving the performance of labour markets. These are not solutions for partners, but rather implications from the analysis upon which skills investment planning decisions can be made. In this section: Review of the demand for skills Review of current skills activity to meet need Key implications for skills investment planning and recommended focus for action Glasgow

South of Scotland: Headline Summary (1)
. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics The number of jobs has been uneven in the South of Scotland since the global downturn. Jobs fell back slightly in 2015, after good levels of growth in 2013 and The number of jobs in 2015 was 100 more than in 2009 – better than some regions, but below the Scotland average level of growth. Within the region, there were 2015 increases in Dumfries & Galloway but losses in the Borders. The South of Scotland economy remains a largely traditional one which is still reliant on the public sector, and on manufacturing, a sector in long-term decline. There are higher proportions of employment in the health sector and manufacturing than the Scotland average, and also in retail, a relatively low wage and low value added sector. Although there were job losses in 2015, there have been changes in industrial sector employment. There was growth in accommodation and food services (a proxy for tourism) in both parts of the region, especially Dumfries & Galloway in health, already a dominant sector. By contrast, there was further contraction in (production) manufacturing and agriculture, both traditional mainstays of employment. Glasgow

. Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics (continued) Professional, scientific & technical services jobs, finance & insurance, business administration & support services and information & communications are all under-represented in the region. Employment in all of these sector declined or remained static in 2015; the exception was the growth in professional, scientific & technical services in Dumfries & Galloway. The region is under-represented in professional occupations, a proportion which has fallen over the last 10 years at a time of national growth, particularly in Dumfries & Galloway. The dominance of low pay sectors, with weak sector productivity, means average household incomes are low. The proportion working in professional occupations is higher in the Borders, mainly as a result of out-commuting to better paid jobs north and south, but principally north to Edinburgh, and almost one in four from the Borders works out of the region. Those accessing employment out of the region have better paid jobs. Jobs in the Borders (£418 per week gross all workers) and in Dumfries & Galloway (£422 per week) pay well below the Scotland average of £492. Low wages, and low value added sectors, are a feature of the South of Scotland. economy Glasgow

. Skills Challenges Although the new measure of unemployment including Universal Claimants has shown falling claimants in South of Scotland, this has been the case nationally. The rate in the region is that same as for Scotland, slightly higher in the Borders. Population growth over last 10 years has been very modest, and a fifth of the rate of growth for Scotland. It is expected to fall by 3% to 2037, when the Scottish population is due to increase by 8%. Over this time the working age population in the region will fall by more than 20%. Given a relatively static jobs market, fewer employers than the Scotland average report at least on vacancy, and fewer report hard-to-fill vacancies or skills shortage vacancies. Fewer also report skills under-utilization and skills gaps, although gaps are greatest in skilled trades (Borders) and sales & customer services (Dumfries & Galloway). It is the dominance of elementary and skilled trade occupations linked to traditional economies that it the greatest regional challenge to address, which needs more high value added service jobs to increases the region’s economic competitiveness. Glasgow

. Skills Activity to Meet Current and Future Demand Work-based learning is critical to meeting skills development needs. There were 1,150 MA Starts in 2015/2016, a decrease from the previous year, but still above the year before. A far greater proportion than average are aged than the Scotland average, and aged 25+ (and fewer aged 16-19). The top five MA frameworks largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, health & social care (with sport), food & drink, transport & logistics and hospitality & tourism. Food & drink and transport are more common in the Dumfries & Galloway part of region. Despite the ongoing importance (if declining) presence of manufacturing there were very few engineering & related MAs. Other services including ICT professionals are represented at a lower level than the Scotland average, despite the need for South of Scotland to make the transition to a more modern economy. There is a continuing gender imbalance in many MA frameworks, although this is common across all Scotland regions. Glasgow

. Future Trends There are expected to be 1,500 fewer jobs in the South of Scotland by 2024, the majority from Dumfries & Galloway. Further losses are expected in manufacturing (-1,200), agriculture, forestry & fishing (-500), education (-400), and public administration & defense (-400). There will however be some increases in professional, scientific & technical services (+400), construction (+400) and modest gains in administration & support, human health & social work and arts, recreation and related services. Despite fewer overall jobs, replacement demand means that 34,000 openings are expected to More than half of these will be SCQF level 7 and above and 90% will be level 5 and above. This reaffirms the need for a strong skills base. A large proportion of openings will be in elementary and skilled trade occupations, as well as professional occupations and sales and customer services. Although the agriculture and manufacturing sectors are forecast to decline, there will remain replacement demand for skilled trades in these sectors. Glasgow

South of Scotland: Key Implications (1)
. Recommended Areas of Focus Increasing the quality of jobs. The South of Scotland region remains a relatively low wage, low pay economy, rooted in traditional employment sectors. There has been some progress in increasing jobs in knowledge-based sectors, such as the professional services, but far more is required to make a more effective transition. Increasing the number of jobs. Jobs growth has stalled, and there remains a need to increase the number of jobs in the region. The number of jobs is forecast to decline and there is a need to diversify away from the declining manufacturing and agriculture sectors. Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. The supply of skills must also be available to satisfy increased and stimulated demand Engender and support more enterprise. A key route to for more private sector jobs is to increase the start-up rate and business density. Supporting new businesses to start-up and grow – linked to quality of life benefits that exist in the region – may help to create new jobs in the future. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). This includes the important health and social care sector.. The ageing population have increasing care needs that need to be met over time. Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). There are other key sectors and occupations in the regional economy where replacement demand is strong, including skilled trades and sales & customer services. These require work-based learning routes into, and upwards, within sectors. There will still be a need to meet the needs of employers in the traditional manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Although forecast to decline, replacement demand is still required, notably in elementary jobs and skilled trades and fit for purpose provision is required to meet this need. Glasgow

. Recommended Areas of Focus There is a need for higher level skills. There is a real need for the South of Scotland to start the transition to a more knowledge-based economy, and the availability of higher level skills locally should be a part of this. A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered and facilitated. A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, and work-based learning routes are a feature of this. Glasgow

Appendix: Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of the local economy. The diagram includes: Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector. Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less than 1 a lower concentration. Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each sector over the past five year period. The diagram includes four quadrants: Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in the local area than the national average Click here to go back to the main presentation: Where are the Jobs (3) - Sector Specialisms

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Regional Skills Assessment 2016"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback

Log in

Auth with social network:

Regional Skills Assessment 2016

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Regional Skills Assessment 2016"— Presentation transcript:

Similar presentations

About project

Feedback