1. Energy in the Developing World: Perspectives from the Field
Professor Catherine Wolfram
April 2017

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5. The developing world accounts for most expected growth in energy and CO2 emissions
2016
Click on interactive Table
Source: Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook, 2016

6. Energy correlated with economic growth
Source: World Bank, WDI

7. Previous projections underestimate energy demand in the developing world
World Energy Outlook
- New Policies Scenario of the
World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.
- Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario).
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015

8. Previous projections underestimate energy demand in the developing world
World Energy Outlook
- New Policies Scenario of the
World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced.
- Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario).
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015

9. Development Angle

10. Randomized controlled trial (RCT)
Communities are randomly divided into a treatment and a control group
Compare changes in social and economic outcomes for both groups

11. Step 1: Distribute “subsidies” to households

12. Step 2: REA extends national grid to households

13. Step 3: Kenya Power installs prepaid meters

14. Many households are
“under-grid”

15. Households want high wattage appliances

16. Very small impacts of electrification
Picture of lightbulb or meter on woman’s hut.
Very small impacts of electrification

17. Are we too focused on rural electrification?
Most of the growth will come from commercial, industrial and existing on-grid households.

18. Energy in the developing world1
We need to understand the drivers of energy demand in the developing world,

19. Energy in the developing world
Develop both technological and policy solutions that work, and 2

20. Energy in the developing world3
Gauge climate solutions based on impacts in China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

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