1. Potential for Renewable Energies’ Application for Heating in the Industrial Sector – A Case Study of Selected APEC Economies
June 21, 2017
Sichao Kan, Yoshiaki Shibata
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)
Alexey Kabalinskiy, Cecilia Tam
Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (APERC)

2. Outline
Introduction
Methodology
Result
Conclusion

3. Introduction: Energy Consumption in the Industry Sector
Non-electricity final energy demand in the industrial sector in APEC region (2014)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016
Selected APEC economy in this study: Chile, People’s Republic of China, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of the Philippines, Russia, Thailand, and the United States

4. Introduction: RE technologies for heating and cooling
Flat plate solar collector
Ground source heat pump
Source:
Source:

5. Introduction: Applicable RE technologies by temperature range
Source: US EPA,

6. Introduction: Breakdown of useful heat demand
Low temperature range: < 100 degree C
Medium temperature range: 100 ~ 400 degree C
High temperature range: >400 degree C
Breakdown of useful heat demand in EU for 2009
Data source: N. Pardo, K. Vatopoulos, A. Krook-Riekkola, J.A. Moya, and A. Perez (2012): “Heat and cooling demand market and perspective”, EU Joint Research Center Scientific and Policy Report.

7. Methodology: Useful energy=
Final energy consumption ×
Efficiency of heat supply technologies

8. Methodology: Industrial sub-sectors and technologies
Renewable option: technology required is already at the mass market stage and the resource availability is not constraint by location
Subsector: manufacturing sub-sectors where heat demand is larger than electricity or where most heat applications are in the low or medium temperature range
Renewable heat technology and industrial sub-sector selection results

9. Methodology: Calculation flow overview
Renewable resource supply potential module
Supply potential of GSHP, solar, and biomass (useful energy base)
(Note #1)
Heat demand profile module
Useful heat demand in each temperature range within each sub-sector
Renewable heat potential determination module
RE potential for meeting LT heat demand:
Determine the RE tech deployment priorities by cost (Note #2)
RE potential constraint by resource supply potential and demand
RE potential for meeting MT and HT heat demand:
Only biomass is applicable for MT and HT heat and since biomass availability also depends on demand from other sectors, the potential for industrial use is determined by scenarios (Note #3)
Note #1: supply potential of GSHP and solar thermal is calculated from factory area and building footprint, biomass supply potential in the P&P sector comes from byproducts of pulp production
Note #2: for the P&P sector, biomass (byproduct) will be deployed first
Note #3: 10% (assumption) of on-site non-biomass useful heat demand on top of existing biomass consumption.

10. Methodology: Heat demand profile
Useful heat demand in each temperature range =
final energy consumption * temperature allocation matrix * efficiency matrix
Final energy consumption (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector, ktoe)
Temperature allocation matrix (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector)
Efficiency matrix (Japan, Non-metallic minerals sub-sector)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and authors estimation and assumption

11. Methodology: Renewable resource supply potential
GSHP
Heat Extracted from Ground Source (ktoe/year)
＝ Available Area (m2)
× Heat Extraction Rate (W/m)
× Density of Heat Exchange Well (wells/m2 )
× Depth of Heat Exchange Well (m/well)
× Operation Hours (hours/year)
× Adjustment Coefficient
× Convertion Coefficient (8.60E-12 (Wh->ktoe))
GSHP useful heat supply potential = heat extracted from ground source * (COP/(COP-1))
Solar thermal
Useful heat supply potential of solar thermal (ktoe/year)
＝ Available Area (m2)
× Solar Radiation (MJ/m2/day)
× System Overall Efficiency (0.4)
× 365 (days/year)
× Convertion Coefficient (2.39E-8 (Wh->ktoe))
Biomass
Paper, pulp and printing sub-sector: biomass supply comes as an on-site by-product. Potential determined by production.
Other sub-sectors: potential determined by scenario, which is 10% of the subsector’s non-renewable on-site heat supply

12. Methodology: Supply potential (available area)
Economy index
Land use productivity index: land use productivity compared to Japan
Ratio of building footprint: same with Japan’s value
Reference (value of Japan)
Land use productivity (total industrial value added/ land use)
Building footprint ratio (= building footprint/factory occupation area)
Available area
Factory occupation area=Ref. Land use productivity * economy index * subsector output value (UNIDO)
Building footprint = factory occupation area * building footprint ratio
Land use productivity index = f(population density index)
Available area for GSHP = 10% * (factory occupation area – building footprint)
Available area for solar thermal = building footprint * 0.88

13. Methodology: GSHP and Solar thermal potential
GSHP and Solar thermal potential (useful energy)

14. Methodology: Biomass potential in P&P sector
Biomass by product potential and on site heat demand 2014 (useful energy base)
Biomass potential: by product of chemical wood pulp production
Per ton of pulp production:
-1.5 ton black liquor solids
-300kg of bark

15. Methodology: Renewable heat potential determination
Levelized heat supply cost (USD/toe)
Renewable heat potential = min(heat demand, RE supply potential)
Low temperature range: priority of deployment of RE technologies determined by levelized heat supply cost
Medium- and high- temperature range: only biomass is applicable.

16. Result: RE heat potential by industry
Renewable energy consumption for heating in 2014 (observed) and its potential in 2040 (estimation)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and estimation by authors

17. Result: RE heat consumption by economy (2014)
Total renewable energy consumption for heat and its share in total final energy consumptions in selected industry subsectors by economy (2014)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016

18. Result: Industrial RE heat potential by economy (2040)
Potential for renewable heat and total energy consumption in selected industries by economy (2040)
Source: estimation by authors

19. Result: Industrial RE heat potential by technology
Potential for renewable heat and total energy consumption in selected industries by economy (2040)
Source: IEA World Energy Statistics 2016 and estimation by authors

20. Conclusion
Paper, pulp and printing and Food and tobacco are the subsectors with the most renewable energy consumption for industrial heat at present. However, the subsector with the highest potential in the future is supposed to be the Chemical and petrochemical subsector.
Among the 8 economies, the United States is using the most renewable energy for heat in the industry sector, but in terms of share of renewable heat in the industrial final energy consumption Chile is the front runner. However, the highest potential for renewable heat applications in the industry sector is supposed to be in the People’s Republic of China, where the industrial energy demand is considerable huge compared to the other economies.
Biomass is the most used renewable energy in the industry sector at present and its potential for industrial heat supply is supposed to be the highest also in the future.
With the continuing cost reduction, solar thermal is expected to become the lowest cost renewable options for low temperature heat demand in most economies, which makes its potential significant in 2040 despite its negligible utilization in the industry subsector at present.