1. Population and Development
Koichi Fujita
CSEAS, Kyoto University
Japan

2. Long-term Trend of World Population (1)
Basically very slow population growth due to high mortality rate with high birth rate
Malthus’s Principle of Population
Population growth is checked by famine, epidemics, war, and so on.

3. Long-term Trend of World Population (2)
However, there is a strong tendency that Asia became densely populated because of the rice-eating habit and economic prosperity.
Estimate of GDP in the World in the year 1000 (by A. Madison)

4. The Classic Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Time
Natural
increase
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

5. Demographic Transition
Stage 1
Stagnation of population with high death rate and birth rate.
Stage 2
Due to nutritional improvement and diffusion of hygiene and modern medical technologies, death rate declines while birth rate remains same, resulting in a rapid population growth.
Stage 3
Due mainly to industrialization and urbanization birth rate also starts to decline and population growth rate decelerates.
Stage 4
Stagnation of (or even decrease) of population with low death rate and birth rate.

6. Differences in experiences of Demographic Transition between Western and Developing Countries
Period from start and end
Western: very long --- more than 150 years
DCs: short about years
Population growth rate at the peak
Western: relatively low---around 1% per annum
DCs: very high around % per annum
Reasons of death rate decline
Western: Gradual process with improved nutrition, hygiene, development of medical technologies
DCs: Sudden decline due to eradication of tropical diseases such as malaria from the 1930s.

7. Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico
Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326.
Births/Deaths per 1,000
1750
Compare the transitions between these two countries to the classic model.
Why are the two countries so different?
[A: The short answer is that Sweden’s transition occurred gradually over 150 years. Mexico experienced rapid declines in death rates due to rapid implementation of better health care and sanitation technologies. The result was that Mexico’s population boomed during this period. It took time for the decline in birth rates to catch up. At the same time, this boom created its own momentum as all these new families have children of their own. Eventually Mexico’s population will likely stabilize (or even shrink), but at a much greater overall population. This pattern was repeated in many nations in the 20th Century, fueling a global population explosion. However, we’re also seeing in several countries – including Sweden – birth rates have dropped below death rates leading to population decline in most of Europe, Japan, and some other nations.]

8. Why and how birth rate declined in Developing Countries? (1)
TFR (Total Fertility Rate)
The average number of children that a woman have over her lifetime.
If TFR is more than 2.1, population will increase, and if less than 2.1 population will decrease.
Many Developing Countries experienced a rapid decline of birth rate (TFR) in recent years. For example, in Bangladesh TFR was more than 6.0 in the 1970s, but declined rapidly to 2.74 at present.
But TFR is still very high in many countries mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Niger (7.75), Mali (7.29), Afghanistan (6.53), Ethiopia (6.12), Zambia (5.15), Kenya (4.56), Laos (4.41), Saudi Arabia (3.83), Pakistan (3.60), etc.
Why and how TFR declines?
It depends on the behavior of couples.

9. Why and how birth rate declined in Developing Countries? (2)
Major reasons why TFR declined rapidly
Adoption of contraceptives was a reason, but more fundamentally, it was because of the transition from agrarian to industrialized modern society.
1) Rising expected return of investment in education, especially in higher education. Parents’ way of thinking changed from many children for labor force in agriculture to less children with higher education to get remunerable job for the bright future.
2) Delay of first marriage age (partly because of higher education)
3) Higher opportunity cost of women’s duty to take care of children
4) Lower infant mortality rate
5) Development of pension system and other social securities
6) Urbanization
7) Availability of contraceptives with low cost
8) Increased awareness

10. Demographic Bonus (1)
For a large group of countries where fertility has declined sharply in the last two decades, the proportion of the working age population (15-64) will increase relative to younger and older dependent populations over the next few decades. With appropriate investments, policies and governance, countries can take advantage of this low dependency ratio, or 'demographic bonus', to launch economic, social, cultural and structural transformation.
Dependency ratio is the sum of child population (0-14) and aged
population (65+) divided by working-age (15-64) population and, then, multiplied by 100.
Dependency ratio first increases when experiencing high population growth rate, but after that it starts to decrease (‘demographic bonus’) and then finally again it starts to increase (to aging society).

11. Demographic Bonus (2)
If the ‘demographic bonus’ period is defined widely as the period until the dependency ratio takes a lowest figure (and starts to increase again due to increase of aged population), demographic bonus final year were 1990 in Japan, 2010 in Thailand, Singapore and Hong Kong, 2015 in Korea and China, 2020 in Malaysia and Vietnam, 2035 in India (and Bangladesh).

12. To the Aging Society
The aging of Asian countries is expected to accelerate in years to come, as the generation with a large population size, who contributed to ‘demographic bonus’, will start turning 65 years of age.
The aged population accounted for more than 10% of the total population only in Japan and Hong Kong in But South Korea and Taiwan are projected to follow suit by 2010, while Singapore will likely do so by China is expected to join this group by 2020, to be followed by Thailand by 2025, Malaysia by 2030, Indonesia and Myanmar by 2035, and the Philippines by 2040.

13. Japanese Economic Society Under Population Onus
Economic impact: Decline in growth potential
1. Intensifying labor shortage
2. Declining savings rate
Social impact: Increasingly heavy pressure on social security system
1. Pension system demands reform
2. Increases forecast in medical expenses

14. What can we know and consider from the table?

15. What can we know and consider from the table?

16. END