1. ALICE-PROTECT Study Yields Online Risk Prediction Tool in Diabetic Nephropathy
From ESH 2016 | LB 1:
Jean-Pierre Fauvel, MD CHU Lyon, Hôpital E Herriot, Lyon, France

2. Overview
Online risk prediction tool created to aid optimizing treatment of diabetic nephropathy
ALICE-PROTECT study data of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and diabetic nephropathy used for Bayesian modeling
Online tool predicts 2-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) event
Access for online calculator:

3. ALICE-PROTECT Study Prospective, observational study
Primary outcome: number of patients at 2 years with blood pressure <130/80 mmHg and proteinuria <0.5 g daily
986 patients, mean age 70 years, mean eGFR 42 ml/min/1.73 m2, 66% patients had proteinuria >1 g daily
630 patients alive at 2 years; 39 patients had CV event during Year 1; 26 patients died from CV cause
Reference: Joly D et al. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2015

4. Proportion of Patients with a Cardiovascular Event in ALICE-PROTECT
% of the population

5. Variables in Bayesian Model
Patient Characteristics
Age, sex, body mass index, blood pressure, ethnicity, smoking habits
Medical History
Stroke, sleep apnea, peripheral arterial disease, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, diabetes duration, hypertension duration, retinopathy

6. Variables in Bayesian Model
Biology
eGFR, potassium, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, HbA1c, proteinuria, hemoglobin
Treatment
Renin angiotensin system blockers, ASE, insulin, statin, diuretics, antithrombotic agent

7. Variables in Bayesian Model
Created Bayesian network to simulate data, using original data from ALICE-PROTECT study
Simulation calibrated with 2000 simulated individual data, 1000 with and 1000 without a CV event; multiple links found between variables
Bayesian network mimics usual medical thinking by physicians, analyzes large number of variables
Used increasingly as diagnostic tools for medical decision making

8. ALICE-PROTECT Study Yields Online Risk Prediction Tool in Diabetic Nephropathy
From ESH 2016 | LB 1:
Jean-Pierre Fauvel, MD CHU Lyon, Hôpital E Herriot, Lyon, France