1. Efficiency standards, vehicle technologies, and consumer fuel savings
Nic Lutsey, Ph.D.
March 20, 2014

2. Overview Automobile efficiency Commercial freight truck efficiency
Background, efficiency standards
Efficiency technologies
Impact on fuel costs
Commercial freight truck efficiency

3. Automobile fuel economy background
Average new vehicle fuel economy remained at mpg from
Horsepower has doubled since 1980, and vehicles have gotten heavier and larger
Vehicle technology has advanced, but not toward increased fuel economy
Fuel prices since 2011 have been twice as high as in the 1990s and more unstable
Adjusted label fuel economy from US EPA “Trends” report
US EIA fuel prices:

4. Automobile efficiency on the rise
California’s “Pavley” Assembly Bill 1493 of 2002
Breaks decades-long stagnation  creates standards for
May 19, 2009: Agreement on standards (“35.5 mpg”)
July 29, 2011: Agreement for standards (“54.5 mpg”)
NY Times
Bloomberg

5. Automobile efficiency on the rise
In 2004, California adopted the first greenhouse emission regulation, for light duty vehicles through model year 2016
Since, California and federal agencies collaborated on standards through 2025
Consumers will see fuel economy go from 19 to 38 miles per gallon (mpg)
39 mpg
CAFE regulation
24 mpg
Consumer fuel economy
19 mpg
US EPA “Trends” report US EPA/NHTSA and greenhouse gas emission and fuel economy standards:

6. Automobile efficiency: Technology
Light-duty vehicles have many energy losses (thermodynamic, accessory, friction, aerodynamic, tire, braking, etc) that can all be greatly reduced – for 40-60% energy use and CO2 reductions
Percent CO2 and fuel consumption improvement for given technologies are shown
These technologies are all available in some variation in the marketplace today
Engine
Engine friction reduction 3-4%
Cylinder deactivation %
Cam phasing %
Variable valve lift %
Turbo direct injection %
Turbo cooled EGR %
Transmission
Torque convertor lock up 0-1%
Aggressive shift logic %
High efficiency gearbox %
6-speed automatic %
8-speed automatic %
Dual clutch %
Continuously variable %
Vehicle load reduction
Low-drag brakes %
Electric power steering 1%
Improved accessories %
Tires %
Aerodynamics %
Lightweighting %
Hybridization
12V Stop-Start %
High-voltage mild 6-8%
Parallel hybrid %
Sources: US EPA, NHTSA, CARB, regulatory assessments

7. Automobile efficiency: New models
Recent technology deployments are increasing fuel economy by 25-50%
Engine, transmission, aerodynamic, lightweighting available across vehicle types
Hybrid technology goes further; electric vehicle technology goes much further
Model
CAFE (mpg) increase
Label fuel economy (mpg) increase
Fuel economy percent change
Technologies
2012 Subaru Impreza
29.3  40.4
22  30
38%
Continuously variable transm., variable valve timing, 160-lb mass red.
2014 Mazda Mazda3 2.0L
35.9  45.9
27  34
28%
Direct injection, 6-speed auto., 100-lb mass reduction
2014 Mazda Mazda3 2.5L
32.7  43.5
25  32
33%
Direct injection, 6-speed auto., 100-lb mass reduction, mild hybrid
2013 Volkswagen Jetta
31.6  46.2
25  34
46%
Diesel, automated manual transmission
2014 Dodge Dart Aero
31.9  43.2
24  32
35%
Turbo, variable valve lift, dual clutch transmission
2012 BMW 328i
28.5  36.7
22  26
29%
Turbo, direct injection, 8-speed auto
2014 Bentley Continental
16.2  23.6
13  18
Direct injection, variable valve lift, cylinder deact., 8-speed
2013 Ford Explorer
20.8  29.8
16  23
43%
Turbo, direct injection, 6-speed automatic
2014 Range Rover
18.5  24.8
14  19
34%
Supercharger, 8-speed transm., 700-lb mass reduct., stop-start
2014 Jeep Grand Cherokee
21.7  31.2
17  24
44%
Diesel, 8-speed automatic, aerodynamics
2013 GMC K15 Sierra
19.0  24.4
15  19
Direct injection, cylinder deactivation, 6-speed automatic
Source: Model year vehicle fuel economy testing; from US EPA fuel economy guide data file:

8. Efficiency technologies: Driving costs down
Due to increased fuel economy standards, new vehicles will see a reduction in fuel consumption by over 40% from 2012 to 2025
Per-mile fuel costs reduced from $0.16  $0.09 per mile
Annual per-vehicle fuel bill are reduced from $1,900  $1,100 per year
21 mpg
24 mpg
38 mpg
US EPA “Trends” report US EPA and NHTSA and greenhouse gas emission and fuel economy standards: US EIA fuel prices:

9. Electric-drive: Much lower annual driving costs
Shifting from average gasoline vehicle to an electric vehicle goes much further in reducing annual vehicle energy costs:
At $0.20 per kWh, drops annual average fuel bill by over 50%
At $0.10 per kWh, drops annual average fuel bill by over 75%
21 mpg
24 mpg
38 mpg
Electric $0.20/kWh
Electric $0.10/kWh
US EPA “Trends” report US EPA and NHTSA and greenhouse gas emission and fuel economy standards: US EIA fuel prices: Electric vehicle based on 0.34 kWh/mile

10. Truck efficiency on the rise, too
Industry and fleet efforts, US EPA SmartWay program, and California greenhouse gas tractor-trailer rule have led the push for increased efficiency
May 21, 2010: First truck efficiency standards (“Phase 1”)
Feb. 18, 2014: Announcement of next phase of standards (“Phase 2”)

11. Truck efficiency: Technology
Heavy-duty vehicles have many energy losses (thermodynamic, accessory, friction, aerodynamic, tire, etc) that can all be greatly reduced – for total of 30-45% energy use reduction.
Percent CO2 and fuel consumption improvement for given technologies are shown
Tractor
Tires: 1-3%
Aerodynamics: 2-4%
Engine idle-off: 5-6%
Lightweighting: 2%
Engine
Friction, load reduction: 1-2%
Aftertreatment: 1-3%
Advanced control, injection: 1-3%
Turbo, air handling: 1-2%
Turbocompounding: 2-5%
Waste heat recovery: 4-8%
Trailer
Tires/wheels: 1-6%
Aero skirt: 3-5%
Aero gap: 1-3%
Aero tail: 3-5%
Lightweighting: 2-5%
Transmission
Direct drive: 1%
Single drive: 1-2%
Friction reduction: 1-2%
Automated manual: 2-8%
Dual clutch: 2-10%
Sources: EPA, 2011; NRC, 2010; TIAX, 2012; ICCT, 2013 (

12. Truck efficiency: Cost reductions
Due to increased efficiency standards, new Class 8 tractor-trailers could see a reduction fuel consumption by up to 40%
Tractor-trailer efficiency could increase from 6 mpg  ~10 mile per gallon
Per-ton-mile freight fuel costs reduced from $0.36  $0.20 per ton-mile
Based on US EIA Annual Energy Outlook (diesel prices), Transportation Energy Data Book (historical vehicle fuel economy); US EPA/NHTSA rulemaking, assuming 38,000 lb payload for high-roof sleeper cab Class 8 tractor-trailer

13. Conclusions
Great potential for increasing the efficiency in the transportation sector with cost-effective emerging technologies
Advanced engines, transmissions, aerodynamics, lightweighting, etc
Efficiency improvements are on the way due to new light-duty efficiency (and greenhouse gas emission) standards through 2025
Consumers will save ~40% on per-mile and annual fuel costs
Efficiency improvements are on the way, due to new heavy-duty efficiency (and greenhouse gas emission) standards in timeframe
Shippers, retailers, (and indirectly consumers…) could save up to ~40% on per-ton-mile shipping costs
Based on US EIA Annual Energy Outlook, Transportation Energy Data Book; US EPA/NHTSA rulemaking, assuming 38,000 lb payload for high-roof sleeper cab Class 8 tractor-trailer

14. Thanks! nic@theicct.org