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CAN YOU GET “SKINNY” IN THE SUBWAY?

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Presentation on theme: "CAN YOU GET “SKINNY” IN THE SUBWAY?"— Presentation transcript:

1 CAN YOU GET “SKINNY” IN THE SUBWAY?
WHILE YOU ARE WAITING CAN YOU GET “SKINNY” IN THE SUBWAY? NOT EXACTLY BUT CLOSE

2 EINSTEIN’S DESK ON THE DAY HE DIED

3 BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS - OPEN FORUM
Jun 1, 2017 WELCOME! Volume #293

4 AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTES QUOTE OF THE DAY SWAPS AND SPREADS
OPTIMISM GAUGE DIAGNOSTICS GAGE FED TRACKER JUNE PORTFOLIO CHANGES SUM AND SUBSTANCE HIGH IMPACT WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE DAVID’S CORNER ADVISOR INPUT QUESTIONS/COMMENTS

5 THANK YOU! “NOTES” IF YOU USE ANY OF OUR SLIDES, PLEASE REMEMBER TO
HAVE THEM APPROVED BY YOUR COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT WE’LL KEEP EVERYONE ON MUTE SO WE DON’T GET FEEDBACK PLEASE SEND US A QUESTION – WE’LL GET TO IT ASAP WE WILL TAKE YOU OFF MUTE IF YOU RAISE YOUR “HAND” THANK YOU!

6 BigFoot Investments is now on Twitter, LinkedIn!

7 Don’t Forget To Join Our “Group”
BigFoot On LinkedIn! Don’t Forget To Join Our “Group”

8 “QUOTE” OF THE DAY: A jackass can kick down a barn….
…But it takes a good carpenter to build one Sam Rayburn

9 A THOUGHT FOR THE DAY: Eight years into the recovery, it is important to recognize that financial conditions can change rapidly and bear special vigilance…. …Nonetheless, risks to the U.S. financial system do not appear to be flashing red in the way they did in the run-up to previous downturns. Lael Brainard (FOMC)

10 Optimism Gauge As of: 6/1/2017

11 >50-day MA/>100-Day MA
Change Measuring Our Economy Last Update: 6/1/2017 Weekly Updates New Monthly Updates Indicator Current Value Prior/Metric Value St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (Rev) +1.0 Chicago Fed National Act Index (3 Mon M/A) +0.23 (Rev) +.50 Unemployment 4.4% (Apr) 4.5% (Mar) +2.00 Weekly Jobless Claims (4Wk Mov Av) 238,000 235,500 (Rev) -.50 ECRI Weekly Index (Against 52 Wk Av) 144.1 144.5 (Rev) Conf Board Leading Indicators (NEW) 126.9 126.5 University of Michigan Sentiment – Final 97.1 (Final – Apr 2017) 97.0 (Final – Apr 2017) Monthly Retail Sales – ex Autos (Adjusted) 377,805 (Apr -2017) 376,679 (Mar-2017) Rev NFIB Small Business Sentiment 104.5 (Apr -2017) 104.7 (Mar -2017) ISM Manufacturing 54.9 (Expansion Line = 50) 54.8 Economic Capacity Utilization 76.7% 76.1% (Rev) Stock Market Moving Averages Weekly Data Points >50-day MA/>100-Day MA N/A S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Comp Index (YoY) 5.9% (Mar) 5.9% (Feb) (Rev)

12 Economic Optimism Index
Measuring our Economy 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Economic Optimism Index Current: Prior: 92.41% READING AS OF: 6/1/2017 Current Reading: 92.41% Trend: Positive Prior Reading: 90.14 (Rev) Bias: Positive

13 Week of: May 29th, 2017 BigFoot Investments
Market Diagnostics Week of: May 29th, 2017 BigFoot Investments

14 SENTIMENT INDICATORS Week of May 29th - 2017
1. AAII Investor Survey 2. TSP Sentiment Survey 3. NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment 4. CBOE Volatility Index INTERNAL INDICATORS 5. S&P D MA and 200D MA AND 2/10 MA 6. NYSE Bullish % 7. S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) 8. Percent of NYSE stocks above 200DMA 9. Percent of NYSE stocks above 10WMA or 50DMA ($NYA50R) 10. NYSE 52-Week New Highs and New Lows 11. Percent of S&P500 stocks above 200DMA 12. Percent of S&P500 stocks above 50DMA ADDED INDICATORS 13. Option Sentiment 14. Option Buyers Sentiment Gauge (OBSG) 15. Consumer Sentiment Index 16. Nasdaq Sentiment Index 17. Rydex Nova/Ursa Sentiment Indicator

15 Week of May 29th, 2017 23.52% Prior: 29.41%

16 READY, SET …..HIKE! Williams San Francisco
VOTING MEMBER MEMBER DISTRICT TOPIC LINK TO SOURCE Williams San Francisco Still believes a total of three rate hikes by the central bank this year Must improve productivity to grow Brainard BOG “Tentative progress we had seen on inflation may be slowing…may lead me to reassess the expected path of the federal funds rate in the future, although it is premature to make that call today.” Kaplan Dallas two more interest-rate increases this year, acknowledges recent declines in U.S. core inflation. Beige Book Powell U.S. economy was "healthy" and that the central bank should continue to edge toward a more normal footing after nearly a decade of crisis-era stimulus.

17 Consumer spending softened in many districts
MORE OF THE SAME Most Districts reported that their economies continued to expand at a modest or moderate Auto sales down Consumer spending softened in many districts Moderate growth in manufacturing Residential and non-residential construction grew a moderate pace Lending tended to mirror the general activity of the economy Most Districts reported that firms expressed near-term positive outlooks But optimism waned somewhat in a few Districts Labor markets continue to tighten Modest increases in prices Low inventories for homes pushing prices Source: Beige Book

18 WELL, TAKE A GUESS AFTER JUNE
44.3% Source: CME; Federal Reserve

19 Credit Anticipates-Equity Confirms
Swaps and Spreads Rate Prior Current Status* Libor/OIS 0.27 0.29 Euribor/Eonia -0.036 -0.032 DTCC Repo - Agency Discontinued DTCC Repo - MBS 0.841 0.998 DTCC Repo – Treasury 0.991 High Yield 3.71 3.74 Fed Reserve Currency Swaps-Short 35 (ECB) 0 (BOJ) 40 (ECB) 1 (BOJ) Fed Reserve Currency Swaps-Long 2-Year Swap Spread 0.268 0.226 TED Spread 0.271 0.222 As of: 5/31/2017 COB *Note: Status = No major impact Status = Negative Impact Status = Moving Worse

20 JUNE HAS ARRIVED

21 June 2017 Stock Picks IN: GS OUT: CELG TOP 25 STOCKS June-17 RANK
TICKER NAME SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc 09 - Services Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) 2 GOOGL Alphabet Inc 10 - Technology Computer Services 3 FB Facebook Inc 4 AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Retail (Catalog & Mail Order) 5 EW Edwards Lifesciences Corp 08 - Health Care Medical Equipment & Supplies 6 BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 7 AAPL Apple Inc. Communications Equipment 8 V Visa Inc Business Services 9 GD General Dynamics Corporation 02 - Capital Goods Aerospace and Defense 10 DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. Construction Services 11 USCR US Concrete Inc Construction - Raw Materials 12 FDX FedEx Corporation 11 - Transportation Air Courier 13 DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. Airline 14 HD Home Depot Inc Retail (Home Improvement) 15 COST Costco Wholesale Corporation 16 WLK Westlake Chemical Corporation 01 - Basic Materials Chemicals - Plastics and Rubbers 17 GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc 07 - Financial Investment Services 18 DIS Walt Disney Co Broadcasting & Cable TV 19 AGN Allergan plc Biotechnology & Drugs 20 C Citigroup Inc Regional Banks 21 XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation 06 - Energy Oil & Gas Operations 22 DOW Dow Chemical Co 23 CBS CBS Corporation 24 BAC Bank of America Corp 25 ARNC Arconic Inc Metal Mining As of May 30th, Subject to change.

22 Investment Style of the Portfolio
TOP 25 STOCKS June-17 ULTIMATE SCREEN-BASED LIST RANK TICKER NAME Popular Value Growth Quality Sentiment 1 ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc #N/A YES 2 GOOGL Alphabet Inc 3 FB Facebook Inc 4 AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. 5 EW Edwards Lifesciences Corp 6 BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 7 AAPL Apple Inc. 8 V Visa Inc 9 GD General Dynamics Corporation 10 DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. 11 USCR US Concrete Inc 12 FDX FedEx Corporation 13 DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. 14 HD Home Depot Inc 15 COST Costco Wholesale Corporation 16 WLK Westlake Chemical Corporation 17 GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc 18 DIS Walt Disney Co 19 AGN Allergan plc 20 C Citigroup Inc 21 XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation 22 DOW Dow Chemical Co 23 CBS CBS Corporation 24 BAC Bank of America Corp 25 ARNC Arconic Inc As of May 30th, Subject to change.

23 Beta of the Portfolio – June 2017
RANK TICKER NAME SECTOR INDUSTRY BETA Weight Weighted Beta 1 ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc 09 - Services Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) 0.54 0.04 0.0216 2 GOOGL Alphabet Inc 10 - Technology Computer Services 0.95 0.038 3 FB Facebook Inc 0.67 0.0268 4 AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. Retail (Catalog & Mail Order) 1.48 0.0592 5 EW Edwards Lifesciences Corp 08 - Health Care Medical Equipment & Supplies 0.66 0.0264 6 BABA Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 0.76 0.0304 7 AAPL Apple Inc. Communications Equipment 1.21 0.0484 8 V Visa Inc Business Services 0.97 0.0388 9 GD General Dynamics Corporation 02 - Capital Goods Aerospace and Defense 0.73 0.0292 10 DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. Construction Services 1.16 0.0464 11 USCR US Concrete Inc Construction - Raw Materials 1.14 0.0456 12 FDX FedEx Corporation 11 - Transportation Air Courier 13 DAL Delta Air Lines, Inc. Airline 0.90 0.0360 14 HD Home Depot Inc Retail (Home Improvement) 1.08 0.0432 15 COST Costco Wholesale Corporation 0.036 16 WLK Westlake Chemical Corporation 01 - Basic Materials Chemicals - Plastics and Rubbers 1.68 0.0672 17 GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc 07 - Financial Investment Services 1.51 0.0604 18 DIS Walt Disney Co Broadcasting & Cable TV 1.19 0.0476 19 AGN Allergan plc Biotechnology & Drugs 20 C Citigroup Inc Regional Banks 1.62 0.0648 21 XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation 06 - Energy Oil & Gas Operations 0.89 0.0356 22 DOW Dow Chemical Co 23 CBS CBS Corporation 1.60 0.064 24 BAC Bank of America Corp 1.35 0.054 25 ARNC Arconic Inc Metal Mining 1.00 1.0960 For a Portfolio with 100% invested in Equity – Beta of Portfolio ≈

24 CHANGE IN BETA Jun-17 NEW GS 1.51 May-17 OLD CELG 1.78 AVG. BETA

25 June 2017 Growth Stock Picks
GS As of May 30th, Subject to change.

26 June 2017 Growth Stock Picks
As of May 30th, Subject to change.

27 June 2017 Growth Stock Picks
As of May 30th, Subject to change.

28 June 2017 Growth Stock Picks
As of May 30th, Subject to change.

29 June 2017 Growth Stock Picks
As of May 30th, Subject to change.

30 June 2017 Growth Stock Picks
As of May 30th, Subject to change.

31 GROWTH PORTFOLIO METRICS

32 PLANNING AHEAD

33 Target Allocation “All-In Growth”

34

35 Adding A Broad Market ETF

36

37 Adding Fixed Income Fixed Income: CRUMX and GIOAX

38

39 Adding Liquid Alts Liquid Alts: SDRIX – GATEX – QLEIX - JHEQX

40

41 Portfolio Construction Comparison
3 Year All-In Growth Adding ETF Adding Fixed Income Adding Liquid Alts Benchmark S&P 500 Standard Deviation 12.88 11.78 9.45 8.73 10.41 Mean 19.72 16.08 13.49 13.64 10.47 Sharpe Ratio 1.58 1.04 1.45 Alpha 6.68 4.12 3.83 4.63 - Beta 1.17 1.10 0.88 0.81 1.00 R-Squared 88.81 94.31 94.71 93.73

42

43 Dividend Picks 2nd Quarter 2017
As of: 6/1/2017 RANK # TICKER COMPANY Growth Score Yield Score Dividend Yield TOTAL SCORE Beta Rf* Rm CAPM 1 MIC Macquarie Infrastructure Corp 95.00 6.79 79.08 0.88 0.73 0.7009 0.7044 2 VLO Valero Energy Corporation 91.00 4.15 74.94 1.38 0.6898 3 RAI Reynolds American, Inc. 87.00 3.06 74.83 0.39 0.7186 4 BGCP BGC Partners, Inc. 94.00 6.13 74.58 1.32 0.6915 5 ENB Enbridge Inc (USA) 5.82 73.44 0.63 0.7116 6 QCOM QUALCOMM, Inc. 90.00 3.98 73.10 1.27 0.6930 7 LAZ Lazard Ltd 88.00 3.68 72.88 1.93 0.6738 8 KKR KKR & Co. L.P. 3.65 72.46 1.64 0.6822 9 CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. 3.66 72.36 1.40 0.6892 10 GIS General Mills, Inc. 3.39 72.18 0.57 0.7134 11 ORI Old Republic International Cor 89.00 3.89 71.90 1.11 0.6977 12 IP International Paper Co 3.47 71.15 1.49 0.6866 13 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc (ADR) 93.00 4.49 71.13 0.98 0.7014 14 ABBV AbbVie Inc 3.88 69.78 1.54 0.6851 15 IBM International Business Machine 86.00 3.95 69.42 0.96 0.7020 16 MSFT Microsoft Corporation 81.00 2.22 69.06 1.04 0.6997 17 KO The Coca-Cola Co 3.26 68.86 0.67 0.7105 18 RDS.B Royal Dutch Shell plc (ADR) 96.00 6.65 68.72 1.15 0.6965 19 INTC Intel Corporation 85.00 3.01 68.60 1.01 0.7006 20 GM General Motors Company 4.53 67.60 1.28 0.6927 21 WFC Wells Fargo & Co 82.00 2.91 67.56 0.94 0.7026 22 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. 78.00 2.38 65.15 1.44 0.6880 23 GE General Electric Company 3.51 64.60 1.18 0.6956 24 WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc 2.61 61.33 0.11 0.7268 25 CS Credit Suisse Group AG (ADR) 92.00 4.95 58.29 Rf Current Portfolio Yield: 4.001 0.6976% Per Month Treasury Bill Rate - 4 weeks 5/31/2017 CAPM of Portfolio 8.70% Annualized Current Portfolio Yield 4.00% * Growth and Yield Score based on 2Q/2017 Screening Expected return of the Portfolio 12.70%

44 SUM SUBSTANCE

45 WEEKLY MACRO DATA FOCUS ON THE DOT

46 THE BOTTOM LINE Growth PMI Data Sentiment Output Inflation Housing

47 BETTER…Q2 PRELUDE???? Capex, was revised up to an 11.4% annual rate from 9.4% PCE revised up to a 0.6% annual rate from 0.3% Government spending revised to a -1.1% annual rate from -1.7% Inventory investment was revised down to $4.3 billion from $10.3 billion, and subtracted 1.07 percentage points from growth versus points originally Real final sales to domestic purchasers, which exclude inventories and net exports, were revised up to a 2.1% annual rate from 1.5% previously, indicating that final domestic demand remains stellar, despite softer headline real GDP growth Corporate profits from current production fell 1.9%, the most in five quarters Source: BEA

48 GROWTH ON THE HORIZON Source: Chicago Fed

49 THIS IS NOT GOOD…BUT THEN AGAIN IT’S THE CBO
Source: CBO

50 UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SENTIMENT TICKS UP
97.1 from 97.0 Source: University of Michigan

51 CONSUMERS SOMEWHAT LESS UPBEAT BUT OVERALL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC
Source: Conference Board

52 EIGHT-MONTH LOW IN MAY – BUT STILL IN EXPANSION
Source: Markit; Investing.com

53 UP FRACTIONALLY IN MAY Source: ISM; dShort

54 DOWN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN FIVE MONTHS (BETTER THAN FORECAST (-1.8%)
Source: Census Bureau

55 INFLATION STILL MEANDERING – INCOME AND CONSUMPTION MOVE UP
Source: BEA

56 HOME PRICES CONTINUED THEIR RISE ACROSS THE COUNTRY

57 NEW HOUSING TAKES A BREATHER
Source: Census Bureau

58 ……AND SO DO EXISTING HOME SALES
Source: NAR

59 FIRST YEAR-OVER-YEAR DECLINE SINCE LAST DECEMBER
“Double whammy: Inventory down 9.0 percent from a year ago and rapid price appreciation that's rising much faster than incomes” Source: NAR

60 BEST GUESS FOR NOW – BUT BETTER
3.8% Source: Atlanta Fed; New York Fed

61 INTELLIGENCE Cycle Volatility “Risk Factors”

62 EXPECT MORE VOLATILITY BUT DON’T PANIC…YET

63 WATCH THE “HIGH” SIDE

64 DEFAULTS IN THE OIL PATCH

65 SOME THOUGHTS ON RISK Source: Federal Reserve – Lael Brainard; SIFMA

66 OVERALL: DATA POINTS STATUS Comments Business Cycle Manufacturing
Still expanding but late stage in some areas Manufacturing Expanding but showing some declines Housing Strong in pricing – Sales fall due to supply issues – overall good Production M/M weakness in durable goods output – looking for trend Growth GDP better but wait and see for second quarter. Signs good Inflation Weak Sentiment Some declines in signals but good for now Employment Tight market but strong Still in expansion but faltering

67 THE GLOBAL CHURN Eurozone China CRITERIA SCORE Deficient 0-1 Poor 2-4
Satisfactory 5-7 Good 8-9 Excellent 10

68 PMI DATA INDICATE THAT EUROZONE GROWTH
8.0 PMI DATA INDICATE THAT EUROZONE GROWTH REMAINED IMPRESSIVELY STRONG IN MAY

69 NOMINAL AND CORE BOTH DOWN
6.0 NOMINAL AND CORE BOTH DOWN 1.4% down from 1.4% Source: Eurostat

70 6.0 NOT TOO MUCH TO FRET

71 RENEWED DETERIORATION IN OPERATING CONDITIONS
4 RENEWED DETERIORATION IN OPERATING CONDITIONS Contraction 49.6 China General Manufacturing PMI fell 0.7 points to 49.6 in May, marking its first contraction in 11 months. “China’s manufacturing sector has come under greater pressure in May and the economy is clearly on a downward trajectory.”

72 0.250 0.250 U.S. Macro Last New

73 DAVID’S CORNER

74 ADVISOR INPUTS

75 QUESTIONS & COMMENTS THANKS FOR JOINING US!

76 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
Content is intended for investment professional use/review only. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot Investments.com), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for any investment professional’s clients portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. The investment professional retains all decision making authority as to whether or not to follow and/or implement any of the presentation content. BigFoot has absolutely no responsibly for any suitability determination pertaining to any of the investment professional’s clients, such obligation being exclusively the initial and ongoing responsibility of the investment professional. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot Investments.com. BigFoot Investments.com. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. Investment Professional acknowledges that to the extent required to do so, it is his/her/its exclusively responsibility to advise his/her/its employer/broker-dealer of its BigFoot subscription. BigFoot Investments.com is a service of Lee Johnson Capital Management, an SEC registered investment adviser located in Fort Worth, Texas. A copy of the Lee Johnson Capital Management LLC’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request. No Sharing of Content: You acknowledge that the presentation content is for investment professional use only. You warrant and represent not to share any portion of the presentation content with any non-subscriber, including but not limited to your clients or prospects

77 WHAT WE WOULD BUY AT THIS LEVEL
REASON STRATEGY THOUGHTS


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