1. Energy transition and technological risks
Patrice Geoffron
University Paris-Dauphine, LEDa

2. Historical energy transition pathways… (1/2)
Source: Fouquet & Pearson (2012)

3. Historical energy transition pathways… (2/2)
Source: Grubler (2012)

4. … compared with the low carbon energy transition
GDP and CO2 at world level
What the “well below 2C” means from a macroeconomic point of view
GDP (log)
Source: Adapted from IEA

5. (Laurent Fabius, COP 21 President, Dec 12 2016)
The Paris Agreement is designed to progressively reduce technological risks
“Its long-term objectives set the bar very high in terms of ambition, (…] shifting of financial flows.
The INDC and stock-taking process should be dynamic enough to enable Parties to reach these objectives over time.”
(Laurent Fabius, COP 21 President, Dec )

6. Recent stabilization of energy related CO2 emissions could announce a “U-turn”…
Source: IEA

7. … but the gap is impressively challenging (1/2)
Source: UNFCCC

8. … but the gap is impressively challenging (2/2)
Low Carbon Economy Index
Source: PWC

9. Dealing with a Darwinian portfolio of technologies: the micro view
Source:I24C

10. Dealing with a Darwinian portfolio of technologies: the macro view
Source: IEA

11. Facing growing system complexity…
Share of variable electricity generation
in 2015 and 2021
Source: IEA

12. …inducing new categories of risks (or challenges)
Timescales of threats to power system security
Source: Boston (2013)

13. Risks are not limited to energy technologies
The city’s agenda and the city’s governance create the framework within which a city exists
A number of city services support the vision of a city
A number of core systems support the city’s services, and as such, the city’s vision
Six core systems act as both resources and users of resources
There are two main city user systems, including subsystems, such as health, education, public safety etc.
The are four main city infrastructure systems, supporting services that relate to a city’s key utilities and to a city’s mechanisms for moving and distributing people, goods, and information
In the following slides, I will explain in more detail the various systems of a city, starting at the bottom with the most basic infrastructure ….
City services: <add defition for each to speaker notes> !!!
People:
Businesses:
Water:
Energy:
Transport:
Communications:
Smart grids, smart cities will combine energy, ITC & transportation innovations, dense in data, integrated in new business models, …
Source: Eurelectric

14. Additional renewable capacities (2015-2021)
Risk assessment is to be replaced is the ongoing “globalization” of low carbon technologies…
Additional renewable capacities ( )
Source: IEA

15. … keeping also in mind the internal dynamics (and geopolitics) of fossil fuels (1/3)
Source: IEA

16. Unconventional fossil fuels
… keeping also in mind the internal dynamics (and geopolitics) of fossil fuels (2/3)
Unconventional fossil fuels
Source EIA/ARI

17. … keeping also in mind the internal dynamics (and geopolitics) of fossil fuels (3/3)
Oil price/barrel
Source: IMF

18. Source: The New Climate Economy Report (2015)
Conclusion: No(t so much) additional money, but massive reallocations needed
Source: The New Climate Economy Report (2015)