1. STUDENT SUCCESS AT THE LIBERAL ARTS COLLEGE
Randy Stiles
Analytic Support and Institutional Research
Grinnell College
April 8, 2016

2. OVERVIEW Liberal Arts Context and Culture
Human and Machine Intelligence
Grinnell’s Findings and Initiatives (some of them)
What’s Next for Us

3. Understanding Attrition
Culture
Data and
Information
Intervention
Science

4. About Grinnell College
Small, Private 4 Year College in East Central Iowa
Residential Campus
Very-highly Selective
Very Diverse (Diversity^2)
Strong Focus on Undergraduate Research

5. Analytics and “Learning Analytics”
“Penetrating the Fog: Analytics in Learning and Education”
Phillip D. Long and George Siemens
September/October, 2011
EDUCAUSE REVIEW
“The Predictive Learning Analytics Revolution: Leveraging
Learning Data for Student Success”
EDUCAUSE Center for Analysis and Research
ECAR Working Group
October, 2015

6. Probability of Graduation (Vertical Axis) by
1st Semester GPA (Horizontal Axis)
Vertical dashed lines approximate;
10th (2.58), 25th (2.98), 50th(3.33), and 75th (3.63) percentile

7. Decision Tree View

8. Biggest Challenges #1. Median GPA at Grinnell ~ 3.45
In the last four student cohorts ( ):
60 % of students who have withdrawn had GPAs above 3.0
32% of students who have withdrawn have GPAs above 3.45
#2. Low Frequency, Non-Comprehensive Data
#3. Small “n”

9. Retention & Completion
Seeing Attrition as a Syndrome
Retention & Completion
Academic Rigor
Location
Mental Health
Social
Psychological Factors
High School Preparation
Social Climate
Substance Use & Abuse

10. Retention & Completion
Human Intelligence and
Statistical Learning
NEW INITIATIVES
Retention & Completion
Faculty Advising
Academic Advising
Student Affairs
and
CLS Advising
APRs and Mid-Term Assessments
Qualitative Research and Exit Interviews
Grade Dynamics Analysis
Predictive Modeling
INTERVENTIONS

11. Mid-Semester Assessments
- Probability of a Final Grade Given S, M, R Rating-
MURKY MIDDLE

12. Qualitative Research
“Examining Factors Influencing Attrition at a Small, Private, Selective
Liberal Arts College”
Gansemer-Topf, et.al., JSARP 2014
Exit Interviews
Student Engagement with Academic Support (SEAS) Survey
2012 Cohort Attrition

13. Grade Dynamics
ALERTS!
SUCCESS
STORIES!

14. Lists of Names, P retention
Prioritized List of Predictors
Discussion

15. What’s Next? Social-Psychological Data in Predictive Models
Consideration of Expansion of Mid-Semester
Assessments
More Qualitative Research
Micro-Surveys

16. Social-Psychogical Data
GPA, Grit, and CIRP Intercorrelations

17. Contact Information