1. Presentation: HighWire Press October 23, 2003 Cara S. Kaufman
The future of print
Presentation: HighWire Press
October 23, 2003
Cara S. Kaufman

2. Is print on the decline. Is the future completely digital
Is print on the decline? Is the future completely digital? If so, how significant is the trend?
Librarians
Subscription agents
Publishers
Publications

3. From librarians UCLA: Watershed year
St. Vincent’s: I'm looking to cut my print collection in half but increase my electronic access 10 fold. I'll spend the same $ but increase my collection
U TX: Our online holdings are already about 5 times what our print holdings are
Johns Hopkins: Moving to online only
Dartmouth: 2004 will see acceleration of libraries’ move to providing many journals in one format only: digital. Usage stats show that users prefer digital format over print
UCSD: In most cases, we are proposing to cancel the print version of a title while retaining electronic access

4. From subscription agents
Major subscription agent expects to lose 1/3 of their STM print journal business by the end of 2004
Role of subscription agent likely to be further minimized
Agents generally unable to intermediate e-subscriptions
Small - medium publishers will lose more market share
Larger publishers to negotiate directly with libraries
Libraries will find it worth negotiating directly because of title collections

5. From the literature
Meta-analysis (Council on Library and Information Resources)
Personal subscriptions to journals continue to decrease
Users rely more on electronic subscriptions subsidized by library
Publisher survey
4 out of 10 libraries are planning to drop print and expensive journals in 2004, in favor of the electronic version
Library budgets basically static; e-collections and e-budgets will increase--funding coming from other (print) materials
Larger research libraries have either made the step from print to electronic or they are contemplating it
Smaller libraries are following in kind, and certainly they are relying more heavily on inter-library loan.
American Library Association
Question not whether electronic publishing will continue to grow in importance but rather how quickly it will displace print
Library newsletter
“No One Uses Them So Why Should We Keep Them?”

6. Drivers Supplemental content available only online
Demand for aggregated e-content (“one-stop shopping”)
Institutional site licenses
Greater availability of unbundled subscriptions
Buying power of consortia
Big Deal discounts offered by large publishers
No international airmail or air freight charges
Incremental production savings without print
Rapid publication, instant delivery
Capital budget constraints at universities
Reducing storage costs by reducing shelf space
Shrinking public-state library budgets
Above inflation subscription rate hikes
Closing hospital libraries
Increasing user comfort with online resources
Researcher-friendly features and functionality

7. Who’s most affected?
Trend toward online only most accelerated in science, less so in clinical medicine
Scientists need to access databases for their jobs, and have ready access to the Internet.
Clinicians want answers to questions for patients they are treating, not lists of search results.
In the humanities, paper has more allure
As of yet, texts not as readily available as in the sciences
75% of students across disciplines access journals online but the percentage drops to 68.5% of arts and humanities students
Arts and humanities respondents do not feel as comfortable with electronic information as respondents in social sciences, engineering, and business
Faculty and student behavior
75% of faculty and graduate students prefer e-journals over their print counterparts
85% of faculty and graduate students prefer to access e-journals from their desktop, rather than the library
30% of students never access print in the library

8. Depends on…
Proportion of small/medium journal v bigger journals in portfolio
Small and medium journals likely to feel the market squeeze
Bigger journals, and bigger publishers, grab market share with title aggregation, big deals, consortia sales
Percentage of member v institution sales—less impact with more members, greater impact with more institutions
How strong are the “golden handcuffs” of society members—so that they renew as members and continue to get print journal
How much in demand journals are for library collections
Specialty areas covered by journals—less impact in humanities, greater impact in science
Publisher policies
Continuing to bundle if market supportive
Adding “magazine-like” features which help support portable readership
Subscription models to recoup losses from decline
Industry support transferable to electronic environment

9. www.kaufmanwills.com Cara S. Kaufman, Partner Selected clients
Alma J. Wills, Partner
Kaufman-Wills Group, LLC
24 Aintree Road
Baltimore, MD 21286
(ph)
(fax)
Selected clients
Am Acad Ped
Am Assoc Immunologists
Am Coll Cardiology
Am Coll Radiology
American Psychiatric Assoc
Am Soc Clin Oncology
ASPET
ASTRO
Intl Anesthesia Res Soc
NEJM
Proj Hope/Hlth Affairs
Alma: former President, Periodicals Div, Williams & Wilkins
Cara: former Publisher, Am Heart Assoc journals, The Lancet