1. Transforming the U.S. Air Transportation System
Andres Zellweger, PhD
ERAU and NASA Headquarters
Herman A. Rediess, PhD
Director, Office of Aviation Research, FAA

2. Commission on the Future of the United States Aerospace Industry
Transforming the U.S. air transportation system to meet our civil aviation, national defense, and homeland security needs is a national priority
The Administration should establish a next generation Air Transportation System Joint Program Office that brings together the needed participation from FAA, NASA, DoD, DHS, NOAA and other government agencies
Within a year, the Joint Program Office should present a plan to the Administration and the Congress outlining the overall strategy, schedule, and resources needed to develop and deploy the nations next generation air transportation system

3. Established a Joint Planning Office
…that sets goals and aligns missions across government to ensure that the United States stays at the forefront of aviation and meets the demand of the future.
A Roadmap to 2025 and Beyond!

4. What are we proposing ?
To build a long term Vision ( 2025 and beyond) of the National Air Transportation System
To enable this vision, develop a National Transformation Plan that includes a unified inter-agency research and development program.
Align the resources and activities of NASA, FAA, DOD, DOC, and DHS in support of this Plan
Create process for continued planning, coordination, periodic reviews and program oversight
National AVIATION Modernization Plan
Plan should also address architecture and system implementation (John- FAA agrees)

5. SCOPE - the Air Transportation System
The system that allows vehicles, both manned and unmanned, to operate safely, securely, and efficiently in the National Airspace System (NAS), including U.S. airports.
This system must:
provide for mobility of people and goods
be affordable and environmentally responsible
support global interoperability
meet the needs for defense and homeland security
adapt to the demands of the free market
fairly allocate scarce resources where necessary.

6. Transformation Strategy
Identify long term national needs
Postulate air transportation system concepts to meet those needs
Adopt a “strategic evolution” process
define evolutionary pathway that
provides near term benefits
meets long term national needs
adjust the pathway over time as we learn more

7. Transformation Strategy
Research refines concepts and transition steps
Future Concepts
Transition Steps
Capability
Step 1: Define a set or range of operations concepts that meet the goals of the Future NAS, then determine the common architecture/elements for the system(s) that support this set or range of ops cons
Step 2: Pick architecture elements from Step 1 that can be implemented early and achieve some benefits, implement via a process that involves a large-scale operational evaluation to evaluate key aspects
Step 3: Select elements of and define “Transition-1” NAS. Refine set/range of op cons based on lessons learned in steps 1-2
Step 4: Repeat Steps 1-3, with successive “Transition-I” NASA implementations to reach the Future NAS (which itself will not be a static state)
NOTE: It is likely that at some point in the above steps, decision will be made to implement parallel system elements to deal with transition issues and to provide some level of “fallback” if there are initial unanticipated implementation issues
Transition space
FAA Operational Evolution Plan guides implementation of the transition steps
Current NAS
Time

8. This strategy will put the air transportation system on the path of transformation to meet the long term needs of our nation and achieve near-term benefits along that path

9. The National Plan will include:
Associated policies, technology, processes
Overall operational concepts
Supporting research
Implementation strategies
Policy and implementation commitments

10. Inter-Departmental Policy Committee
Joint Planning
Office
FAA
NASA
DOD
DHS
DOC
Strategic Plan
& Perf. Goals
Strategic Plan
& Perf. Goals
Strategic Plan
& Perf. Goals
Strategic Plan
& Perf. Goals
Strategic Plan
& Perf. Goals
CIP
OEP
Institutionalize within each agencies planning processes and programs
Infra.
Plan

11. What’s different about this approach?
Transformation not Modernization
Gov’t and industry wide requirements (efficiency, safety, capacity, security, defense)
Inter-agency plan approved by high level policy board
Has a body that provides for continuous inter-agency coordination and oversight
Driven by operations concept that is globally interoperable

12. Develop a National Plan that includes:
2003 Goal
Develop a National Plan that includes:
1.National Vision for 2025
2.Socio-Economic Demand Forecast
3.Goals and Policy
4.Operational Concepts and Transition Roadmap
5.Research Requirements/Plan
PLAN – need to get agreement on exactly what’s in the plan
add Transition Roadmap, with discrete steps along the way (very important to OSTP)
(John says FAA is somewhat reluctant because they are not sure they can deliver this in one year! Obviously, we’ll have to address resources for developing the plan)
For early steps, needs to show how NAS architecture and plans have to be adjusted
Who Approves the NATIONAL PLAN? (EXEC BOARD?)
SCOPE – National Goals should be broad I.e. anyone/anything/anytime/anywhere
Concepts/requirements – must reflect the BREADTH (more than RTCA Conops)
R&D - Must agree on scope of R&D
Need a way to ensure continue long and near term balance of the R&D plan

13. Purpose of Chapter 1, 2 & 3 Vision (Chapter 1)
Develop a compelling case for and a unified vision of a 21st century air transportation system that is significantly faster, safer, more secure, quieter and cleaner than today’s system and provides high quality and affordable service to all of its customers.
Vision (Chapter 1)
Justify the importance of investing in air transportation by identifying the socio-economic drivers of and national value of air transportation, forecast the anticipated shortfall of air transportation supply relative to demand through the year 2025, and value the shortfall.
Socio-Economic Demand Forecast (Chapter 2)
Goals & Policy (Chapter 3)
Define National goals and policies for what the air transportation system must provide to achieve the vision and to meet the socio-economic demand.

14. Air Transportation System National Plan
Vision
Economic
Safety/Security
Quality of Life
Benefits
Values
Mission
Fast
&
Efficient
Flexible
&
Reliable
Safe
&
Secure
Clean
&
Quiet
High-Quality
&
Affordable
National
Goals
National
Goals
National
Goals
National
Goals
National
Goals
Policy
System Operational Concept

15. Unified Vision
A unified compelling vision endorsed by the aviation community is needed to -
Help America understand the critical role air transportation plays in our economy and quality of life
Make air transportation a national (international) priority
Help the “right” organization focus on the “right” problems
Policy makers, service providers, equipment providers, researchers
The “vision” will be a high-level statement of what the future air transportation should provide
Numerous aviation vision statements exist
Approach is to synthesize existing visions into one proposed unified vision, then solicit consensus

16. Imagine the Future
Traveling without delay, on your schedule, directly between your home or place of business to your destination
Arriving at an airport and walking directly to your aircraft
Flying anywhere in the world and returning the same day
Moving packages and products to any zip code in the nation the day they are ordered, international destinations the next day
Any community, regardless of size, having affordable access to air transportation
A system without fatalities and major injuries
A system so quiet that communities clamor to have an airport in their neighborhoods
Seamless reservations and transition between modes

17. Socio-Economic Demand Forecast
Start
National value of air transportation
Examine economic, quality-of-life, safety and security aspects of civil aviation’s place in the U.S. economy.
Provide economic valuation.
Future air transportation demand
Forecast anticipated growth in air demand to 2015 and 2025 based on accepted modeling tools.
Identify socio-economic growth constraints and enablers that may affect the growth and patterns of future air transportation demand.
Identify possible futures for air transportation demand based on interactions of economic growth and socio-economic constraints and enablers.
Stop
Shortfall: capacity assessment vs. anticipated demand
Identify critical gaps between today’s plans for future capacity and tomorrow’s anticipated demand, and identify barriers to meeting that demand.
Identify major policy implications and fiscal considerations that could help or hinder a transformational effort.

18. Alternative Futures High-end alternative: Baseline:
Accelerated growth forecast to 2025
Optimistic, potential view of growth
Baseline:
FAA Long Range Forecast to 2025
Community validated & accepted
Low-end alternative:
Constrained growth forecast to 2025
Used to identify constraints (sensitivity)
Not intended for use in formal forecast

19. National Goals and Policies
National goals define what the air transportation system must provide to enable the vision and to meet the socio-economic demand
National policy is the commitment to enable the vision and goals and frames the necessary roles and rules for government and industry
Lower-level policies associated with specific operational concepts will be addressed within those concepts

20. Goals
Goals discussion to be built about five categories of service value:
Speed and Efficiency
Flexible and Reliable
Quality and Affordable
Safety and Security
Quiet and Clean

21. Goal Format Example

22. Mission Profile
The numerical case for aviation mission needs and factors affecting how and where aviation is used (both supply and demand).
4-6 scenarios will define the range of possible futures.
They will capture service rates, forecasts, user behaviors & trends, and other business factors (including route structure and aircraft mix).

23. Operations Concepts and Transformation Steps (Chapter 4)
This is the ‘how to’ section of the National Plan that describes the future operations possibilities 
Future concepts are described in terms of alternative ways in which a service is provided.
The transformation to future operations is described terms of:
- the procedures
the people in the system
the products with special attention to cockpit evolution
the policies that will drive the transformation.

24. Operations Concepts
Services: Flight Planning, Strategic Traffic Mgmt, Tactical Traffic Mgmt, Navigation Services; Separation Assurance, etc. . . . .
. . .
Connecting services, including 4-Ps (people, procedures,
products, and policies) gives a holistic concept

25. Transformation Strategic Roadmap: (big picture on one page)
- Key shifts in public policy or a publicly visible aspect of the industry or operations
Transformation Steps: (details, several pages)
- Potential changes to regulations, roles or operations to achieve the vision
Decision Trees:
- A diagram that shows key decision points where possible paths to the future diverge

26. Transition Steps Several views in a fold out timeline
Diagram the transformation for each dimension with major changes in 5 year bins
Narratives define the change & next key decision
Capture multiple possible paths and branches
Flight Planning Transition
Auto load flight plan
Auto negotiate and execute flight plan
Enhanced feedback on flight planning
Enhanced Interactive flight planning
Interactive flight planning AOC/ATM
4D contract flight plan

27. Research Requirements/Plan Chapter 5
This chapter identifies research requirements and organizes them by:
• Ops Concept research
Infrastructure technology research
•Research associated with transformation steps
•supporting research
• study of policy alternative
• study of transition process
• study of workforce cultural change
• strategy validation and benefits analysis
• refinement of scenarios and associated demand profiles
The research plan will identify necessary research activities, research products, cost estimates, and priorities.

28. Thank You!