1. 2012 TV Early Retirement Feasibility Study
Prepared for NEEA, PG&E, SMUD and SCE by Energy Solutions and Navitas

2. Consumer Electronics Market Assessment and Prioritization: TV Early Retirement
Friday, Oct 26th 2012

3. Executive Summary – Technology, Market, and EM&V
Pre-2008 large TV stock is much less efficient than current models.
For practical reasons, a retirement program would be limited to plasma TVs. Retiring a 42”, pre-2008 plasma could save 140 – 240 kWh/unit.
While there is a large installed base, many TVs are already recycled and the remaining opportunity decreases each year.
Existing e-recycling programs create free-ridership and attribution concerns.
Lack of information on pre-2008 power consumption and changes in operating hours make savings estimates highly variable and speculative, creating a significant EM&V risk.

4. Executive Summary – Program Design
Program would need to include a downstream and midstream incentive to influence both the consumer and recycler decision to participate.
High consumer discount rate to influence consumer decision requires a high consumer incentive which is subject to significant free-ridership.
Program has limited future and would likely not be able to exist beyond 2014.
While savings are attractive on a per unit basis, limited, high-cost touch points and major EM&V risks make this measure unfeasible at this time.

5. Table of Contents Technology Characteristics Market Characteristics
Program Design
Integration With Broader Plug Load Strategy
EM&V

6. Technology Characteristics

7. Glossary
Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) technology for regulating color and light in a display
Cold-Cathode Fluorescent Lamp(CCFL) light source for early LCD televisions. Televisions using this technology are commonly referenced as LCD.
Light Emitting Diode (LED) light source for later LCD televisions. Televisions using this technology are commonly referenced as LED.
Cathode Ray Tube (CRT) technology for displaying an image on a television

8. Technology Characteristics Summary
For practical reasons, program would have to be limited to plasma TVs. Retiring a 42”, pre-2008 plasma could save 140 – 240 kWh/unit.
A key uncertainty is determining the operating hours that would have occurred without intervention.
Average measure life is likely 2-3 years without additional study of secondary TV market.
Installed plasma base continually being whittled away due to existing recycling programs.

9. Program Overview – What type of TVs should we target?
Program Goal: Provide rebate to households that decide to recycle their large pre-2008 TVs. Only working TVs would receive rebate. The recycled TVs would be decommissioned.
‘First generation’ plasma TVs are inefficient and offer best potential savings
CRTs were common before 2006, but mostly for smaller screen sizes
Smaller potential savings
Technology already in decline, most will be recycled or no longer used within a few years (low or no resale value)
Early LCDs (CCFL) used about 3x more energy than today’s LCDs (LED)
Moderate savings, but not as high as Plasma TVs

10. 2004-07 Plasma TVs offer highest savings potential
Active Mode Power (Watts)
Year of Manufacturer
2012 Baseline3
Delta W ( All Tech vs baseline)
Delta W ( Plasma vs baseline)
Screen size bin
All Technologies
LCD Only
CRT only
Plasma only
All Qualified Models
<=18 47 37 33 57 - 14 23
19-20 68 53 50 63 20 70 87 62 26 45
25-27 90
102
107 81 36 66
30-36
114
129
134 43 86
157 58
100
39+
142
268
230
364 75
193
290
1. This study recorded on mode power for used TVs in It provides a decent snapshot of TV power draw for TVs from (LBNL, Rosen et. al, 1999)
2. This is the data set used to develop the ENERGY V3 TV specification. It represents a decent snapshot of TVs being sold between 2005 and 2007.
3. This data represents the average on mode power draw for TVs that meet or exceed ENERGY STAR V5.

11. Program efforts should be limited to plasma TVs
To reduce consumer confusion, a program would likely need to accept all TVs of a specific display type.
It would not be practical to only accept models from specific years.
While large LCDs have potential energy savings, including them in a program would require that all LCDs, regardless of age and screen size be accepted for recycling.
Therefore, a plasma-only recycling program makes the most sense because it limits screen sizes to 40” and above and a relatively inefficient technology.
1. This study recorded on mode power for used TVs in It provides a decent snapshot of TV power draw for TVs from (LBNL, Rosen et. al, 1999)
2. This is the data set used to develop the ENERGY V3 TV specification. It represents a decent snapshot of TVs being sold between 2005 and 2007.
3. This data represents the average on mode power draw for TVs that meet or exceed ENERGY STAR V5.

12. Measure life of TV early retirement is very limited
The measure life is number of years that the TV would stay in use in the absence of a TV early retirement program.
Based on this approach, program could likely only claim 2-5 years.
Expected lifetime of older models is about 11 years (LBNL 1999).
NOTE: NEEA has a measure life of 6.1 years that reflects how long it is in the first household, not its expected life reflected by this measure.
Useful remaining life of retired TVs (assuming 2013 program):
TVs sold in : 1-5 years
TVs sold before 2003 will have reached the end of their expected life
Similar to appliance recycling, pre-2003 TVs could potentially claim a 2 year ‘useful remaining life’ (only if TV is working)
*1999 LBNL Study

13. Uncertainty in Hours of Operation Assumptions
For the TVs being recycled:
Highly dependent on where the TV is located in the house and whether it is the primary TV, secondary TV, etc.
For new TVs purchased to replace recycled TV?
Assume that most of the time, the new TV will become the ‘most watched’ TV.
All other TVs in the use will then be used for fewer hours (no research or data available to support this)
TV Set Description
Hours Watched: TV Set per day*
Most Watched TV
7.7
2nd Most watched TV
4.0
3rd Most watched TV
2.9
4th Most watched TV
2.4
*Source: Nielsen television data, “Understanding Television Set Usage: ‘An investigation into average TV-set usage patterns in California.” Funded by PG&E.

14. Savings Calculation Methodologies
Developing savings estimates is a challenge because of uncertainty regarding hours of operation for the new TV, recycled TV, and all other TVs in the house
Two broad savings calculation methodologies could be used (both assume that a new TV would be purchased)
Cascade effect: New TV becomes primary TV, hours of operation change for all TVs in house
Simplified approach: New TV replaces old TV (same hours)
Preliminary Savings Estimates*
*Based on retirement of 42” Plasma from 2006
Cascade Effect: The cascade effect assumes that households with multiple TVs would typically retire the oldest TV. The newly purchased TV would likely become the most watched TV. The TV that used to be the most watched would become the second most watched. The TV that used to be the second most watched TV would become the third most watched TV, etc.
Methodology
Annual Savings (kWh)
Rebate
Cost per kWh
Cascade Effect
$50
$ $0.36 per kWh
Simplified Approach
240
$0.21 per kWh

15. Market Characteristics

16. Market Characteristics - Summary
74% of households give away or re-sell their TV, so it stays in use.
Key players include retailers, recycling/donation Centers, and resale market
Recycling center certification should be a program requirement
Program could partner with retailers, recycling centers, or both
24% of households already recycle their TVs and so a program would need to demonstrate increase in this rate

17. Most Households Give Away or Sell Old TVs
How do households dispose of TVs?*
74% of households that dispose of a TV give it away or sell it, meaning that the TV remains in use. This extends the TVs EUL.
About 24% already E-Cycle
11% will sell the TV (Large plasma TVs have higher resale value so this % may be higher for large TVs)
*Source: PSE TV Early Retirement Phone Survey

18. Overview of current e-recycling market
Most recycling centers are free, some charge a fee for pick-up (~$50-$150)
Best Buy is the only major retailer to offer an electronics recycling program
Fee ($100) for pickup of >32”, unless new TV is delivered*
Most retailer stores will not accept/recycle large TVs
The secondary resale market, such as craigslist or used electronics retailers would compete with program.
Some large flat screen models are listed at >$100 on craigslist.
Program incentive would have to be higher than potential re-sale value, making a program very
*<32” TVs may be dropped of for free. >32” TVs must be picked up by Best Buy. The fee is $100 for the first 2 TVs picked up, unless the customer purchases a TV and has it installed by Best Buy.
**Based on quick review of Craigslist postings for circa-2006 Plasma screen TVs

19. Program Requirement: Recycler Certification
To ensure that TVs are being recycled in a responsible way, the program would need require certification. Likely certifications include:
e-Steward certified – only standard to ban export to other countries
Launched in 2010
74 electronics recycling facilities are certified to-date
Certification is supported by >70 environmental organizations (Greenpeace, Sierra Club, NRDC)
R2 (Responsible Recycling) Standard
Generally the industry accepted standard for recycling
Some claim that R2 fails to adequately address the four biggest problems in the electronics recycling industry:
Export: the global dumping of e-waste
Prison recycling
Incineration of e-waste
Worker protections for recycling workers

20. Retail channel partners may have limited touch points
If program approach uses a retailer partner, recycling is linked with touch point of new appliance purchase, similar to appliance recycling.
Only the largest TVs require delivery service so this substantially limits the potential touch points.
Most retailers do not have TV recycling programs and may be reluctant to set them up just for the program
Part of rebate may go to cover retailer costs. Due to low-volume and high effort requirements, retailer incentive would have to be higher than current BCE program levels ($25).

21. Recycling center partner have high free-ridership risks
TV drop off is generally free at recycling stations.
Donation Centers (e.g. Goodwill) usually resells, only recycle if TVs is not working or cannot be sold
May object to recycling working electronics
Program will have to require proof of recycling
Free ridership would substantially increase program costs
High incentive requirements to recycling partner to cover opportunity cost.

22. Integration with plug load strategy
TV early retirement addresses the existing market which is not covered by BCE or T20 measures.
TV early retirement has been studied but never implemented by a utility
Limited long-term opportunity suggests that this will not be part of a long-term strategy.

23. EM&V and Program Design

24. EM&V risks are extremely high
High uncertainty in savings calculations, measure life, and partial use make baseline attempts extremely challenging and likely expensive.
Free-ridership may be high if using the recycling partner channel.
Joint downstream and mid-stream incentive requirement magnifies costs, increases attribution and free-ridership.
Possible opposition from organizations receive donated TVs
Limited power data makes energy savings calculations extremely difficult.
These EM&V issues would require additional study before beginning a program.

25. Limited, high-cost touch-points and EM&V risks suggest that an early retirement program is not feasible
Program would need to include a downstream and midstream incentive to influence both the consumer and recycler decision to participate.
High consumer discount rate to influence consumer decision requires a high consumer incentive which is subject to significant free-ridership.
Program has limited future and would likely not be able to exist beyond 2014.
While savings are attractive on a per unit basis, high free-ridership, significant EM&V risks, and high costs of program start-up make this measure unfeasible at this time.