1. Reducing traffic fatalities requires reliable data followed by science-based policies
Leonard Evans
President, Science Serving Society
President-Emeritus, International Traffic Medicine Association (ITMA)
Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
USA
Sunday 30 July 2017

2.  1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads
Harm from traffic
 1.2 million people killed each year on the world’s roads
 Victims mainly healthy, young
 Injures >> fatalities
 Property-damage only >> injures
Since beginning of motorized traffic ~ 2 billion traffic crashes 2

3. Bow of Titanic – 3.8 km under Atlantic Ocean. Photographed
2 Sept by Leonard Evans 3

4. Scene from 2000 Chinese movie The Road Home, (director Zhang Yimou)4

5. 5 5

6. Summarizes what science has taught about traffic safety6 6

7. Scientific study needs data
By far, most reliable data is for fatalities
Even though death just tip of iceberg in numbers, much attention is devoted to it
I recently searched web for Chinese traffic fatalities 7 7

8. crashes
Downloaded

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10. Traffic Injury Prevention: (2015) 16;565–570
Chinese Traffic Fatalities and Injuries in Police Reports, Hospital Records, and In-Depth Records from One City
Traffic Injury Prevention: (2015) 16;565–570
Authors:
Jun Qiu
Ji-Hong Zhou
Liang Zhang
Yuan Yao
Dan-Feng Yuan
Jian-Guo Shi
Zhi-Ming Gao
Lin Zhou
Zheng-Guo Wang
Leonard Evans 10

11. Objective: To estimate number of deaths on China’s roads
Approach : Two unrelated studies
1. Analyzed data from 210 military hospitals throughout China
2. Examine in-depth crash records from one city (Chonqqing)
Conclusion: This study, in agreement with earlier research, implies > 200,000 annual traffic deaths in China 11

12. WHO has estimates of fatalities for 180 countries (data for 2013)
Rank
Fatalities
180
China
261,367
172
Iran
24,896
179
India
238,562
171
Thailand
24,237
178
Brazil
41,059
170
Ethiopia
23,837
177
Indonesia
38,279
169
Congo
22,419
176
Nigeria
35,621
168
Vietnam
175
USA
34,064
167
Bangladesh
21,316
174
Russia
27,025
166
Tanzania
16,211
173
Pakistan
25,781
165
Mexico
15,062 12

13. Illustrative examples from 180 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles
Rank R 2
Finland
4.4
San Marino 1 fatality, R = 1.8
Capital: San Marino
Population: 31,781 (2015) World Bank

14. Illustrative examples from 180 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles
Rank R 2
Finland
4.4 3
Sweden
4.7 5 UK
5.1 8
Netherlands
6.0 16
Australia
7.3

15. Illustrative examples from 180 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles
Rank R 2
Finland
4.4 3
Sweden
4.7 5 UK
5.1 8
Netherlands
6.0 16
Australia
7.3 30
USA
12.9

16. Illustrative examples from 180 countries
R = Traffic fatalities per 100,000 vehicles
Rank R 2
Finland
4.4 51
Malaysia
29.9 3
Sweden
4.7 67
Mexico
43.0 5 UK
5.1 75
Russia
53.4 8
Netherlands
6.0 98
China
104.5 16
Australia
7.3
108
India
130.1 30
USA
12.9
131
Pakistan
283.9

17. Big problem – more than 200,000 annual deaths on China’s roads
How can this number be reduced?
Science can provide answers
High priority is reliable data
Two recommendations 17

18. 1 Create data-collecting agency
 Goal - accuracy and completeness
 USA data set FARS is good model
 40+ years of ongoing improvement
 Free, comprehensive, and simple on web 18

19. 2 Create traffic-safety research institute
 Goal – highest quality objective scientific research
 Ongoing guaranteed support by government, but largely independent of government
 Evaluate safety programs (implementation and evaluation must be kept separate)
 Make solicited and unsolicited science-based recommendations
 Best model is SWOV in the Netherlands 19

25. Include data thru 2015

26. Fatalities in a given year Maximum yearly fatalities
Because fatalities reach a maximum, we can define a simple ratio:
Fatalities in a given year
Maximum yearly fatalities
 Dimensionless (no units)
 No arbitrary assumptions
 Depends ONLY on fatalities
 Plot* how this ratio varies in time after maximum is reached
*on logarithm scale, and x100 to express as % 26

27. Data from International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD)
Original file has data for 32 OECD jurisdictions
Use data from same 26 countries as in my 2014 AJPH paper
This requires excluding 6 countries (e.g. Iceland with 16 fatalities) 27

28. 43 years later 64.3% of max (35.7% drop)
maximum value 54,589 in 1972
43 years later 64.3% of max
(35.7% drop)
year
fatalities
1972
54,589
2015
35,092

29. Compare USA decline to 64.3% with declines in other 25 countries, introduced in alphabetical order

58. US is extreme outlier having far worse safety than any of the 25 other countries

59. If we accept that IRTAD data are valid:
Number of countries
Criterion 16
20,000+ fewer USA deaths if USA matched their decline 9 C
All 9 still reduce deaths by larger percent than USA 1 F
Uniquely, the worst (USA) 26 59 59

60. If we accept that IRTAD data are valid:
Number of countries
Grade
Criterion 16 B-
20,000+ fewer USA deaths if USA matched their decline 9 C
All 9 still reduce deaths by larger percent than USA 1 F
Uniquely, the worst (USA) 26
Perhaps B to 7 of these with declines that, if USA had matched, then 25,000 fewer USA deaths 60 60

61. If we accept that IRTAD data are valid:
Number of countries
Grade
Criterion 16 B-
20,000+ fewer USA deaths if USA matched their decline 9 C
All 9 still reduce deaths by larger percent than USA 1 F
Uniquely, the worst (USA) 26 61 61

62. If we accept that IRTAD data are valid:
Number of countries
Grade
Criterion 16 B-
20,000+ fewer USA deaths if USA matched their decline 9 C
All 9 still reduce deaths by larger percent than USA 1 F
Uniquely, the worst (USA) 26 62 62

63. If we accept that IRTAD data are valid:
Number of countries
Grade
Criterion 16 B-
20,000+ fewer USA deaths if USA matched their decline 9 C
All 9 still reduce deaths by larger percent than USA 1 F
Uniquely, the worst (USA) 26 63 63

64. If we accept that IRTAD data are valid:
Number of countries
Grade
Criterion 16 B-
20,000+ fewer USA deaths if USA matched their decline 9 C
All 9 still reduce deaths by larger percent than USA 1 F
Uniquely, the worst (USA) 26 64 64

65. If we accept that IRTAD data are valid:
Number of countries
Grade
Criterion 16 B-
20,000+ fewer USA deaths if USA matched their decline 9 C
All 9 still reduce deaths by larger percent than USA 1 F
Uniquely, the worst (USA) 26 *
* 7 for 2011 data! In Just 4 years, from 2011 to 2015, USA sank further compared to other countries 65 65

66. US policy does not just ignore science, it aggressively denies science66

67. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:67 67

68. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important 68 68

69. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors 69 69

70. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
 Roadway factors are important 70 70

71. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
 Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors 71 71

72. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
 Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors
 Driver performance factors are importantctors 72 72

73. Most basic scientific findings can be summarized as:
 Vehicle factors are important, but less important than roadway factors
 Roadway factors are important, but less important than driver performance factors
 Driver performance factors are important, but less important than driver behavior factorsfactors 73 73

74. USA has obsessively focused on vehicles
USA priorities are not random - they are almost perfectly opposite to where benefits are greatest
USA has obsessively focused on vehicles
And continues to focus narrowly on vehicles and other technological factors
I suggested, in AJPH, that the:
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
would be better named the
National Highway Vehicle Safety Administration 74

75. Big message To reduce traffic deaths requires science-based policies
This requires
 Reliable data
 “Disinterested” quality analysis 75

76. More evidence that driver behavior is central comes from examining year-to-year changes in USA traffic fatalities 76

83. [2000; -0.04, 0.5]

85. r2 = 0.442

86. Some shocking photographs!86

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100. Most recent study
Weather and Fatal Crashes Involving Large Numbers of Vehicles, Journal of Safety Research, 2016, (final steps of review), Ying Wang, Liming Liang and Leonard Evans
Background
Lots of anecdotes, zero quantitative evidence
Objective
To quantify how weather affects the occurrence of crashes involving large numbers of vehicles
100

101. 1990-12-11: 99 cars and trucks crash on a foggy stretch of I-75 in TN: 12 fatalities
101

102. ● ~8 fatal crashes per year in USA involving > 10 vehicles
Very rare events
● ~8 fatal crashes per year in USA involving > 10 vehicles
● < 1/year involving > 27 vehicles
● So use ALL FARS data
● 40 years,
● More than 1½ million fatal crashes
102

103. CONCLUSIONS
● Fatal crashes involving >35 vehicles are most likely to occur in snow or fog
103

104. CONCLUSIONS (continued)
● Fatal crashes in rain are ~3 times as likely to involve > 10 vehicles as in good weather
● Fatal crashes in snow ~23 times as likely to involve > 10 vehicles as in good weather
● Fatal crashes in fog are ~35 times as likely to involve > 10 vehicles as in good weather
104

105. CONCLUSIONS (use > 20 vehicles, not 10)
● Fatal crashes in rain are ~6 times as likely to involve > 20 vehicles as in good weather
● Fatal crashes in snow ~158 times as likely to involve > 20 vehicles as in good weather
● Fatal crashes in fog are ~171 times as likely to involve > 20 vehicles as in good weather
105

106. Comparing safety performance of countries with reliable data offers insights into best ways to reduce harm in traffic
To do this we first examine the long term trend in one country, the USA
106

108. The Netherlands had 570 traffic deaths in 2015
This is 15.2% of The Netherlands’ all time high of 3,506 in 1972
If US total had fallen to 15.2% of its high, US total in 2015 would be 8,268
(26,824 below 35,092 observed)
More than 20,000 additional Americans are killed annually because US fails to match decline in Netherlands (or 15 other countries)
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