1. International Tourism in 2002
Market Intelligence and Promotion Section
International Tourism in 2002
Preliminary results and short-term prospects
News conference World Tourism Organization
Hotel NH Eurobuilding, 27 January, 2003
World Tourism Organization

2. World: gradual recovery
International Tourist Arrivals:
715 million, +3.1%
Average growth : 4.3% ▲ ▼
Asia and the Pacific +7.9%, Middle East +10.6%,
Africa +3.7%
Americas –0.6%, Europe +2.4%
Average receipts per arrival (2001):
euro 750 / US$ 670
Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF):
2002: +2.7% ; 2003: +3.6%

3. 2001 change of trend World Tourism characterized by:
global economic downturn affecting all major economies at same time
general uncertainty after 11S attacks and war on terrorism
not so much decrease in overall volume but above all shifts in demand
overall pressure on receipts

4. 2002 better than expected
predominantly continuation of the scenario that started in 2001
uncertainty still present
economic recovery not as quickly as initially expected
mixed results in first half of the year 2002
gradual recovery over the months
many destinations still in minus, some in plus
by sector the picture is equally mixed

5. Changes in tourist behaviour
wait and see attitude => late-booking
trips closer to home, intraregional traffic picks up first
sensitivity to price / business travel cost cutting
much depends on economic conditions
operators have reduced capacity
pent up demand because of postponed travel
experience of the past shows that tourism is very resilient and has a great capacity for recuperation

6. Especially closer to home
Gulf war: drop in interregional traffic in 1991, but strong rebound in 1992
In general interregional traffic tends to grow at a faster pace than intraregional traffic
11S 2001: above all drop in interregional traffic, intraregional still positive

7. Tourism strongly dependent on economy
echo of the second oil crisis / martial law in Poland /
Falklands conflict / conflict Israel-Lebanon
Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia
Asian Financial Crisis
11S

8. ▲ ▼ Europe: modest growth International Tourist Arrivals:
411 million, +2.4%
58% of world total
Average growth : 3.6% ▲ ▼
Turkey +13.6%, Croatia +6.1%, Bulgaria +7.8%, UK +3.1%
Poland –5.3%, Portugal –3.5%, Germany 0%, France +2%
Average receipts per arrival (2001):
euro 650 / US$ 580
Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF):
2002: +1.8% ; 2003: +2.9%

9. Asia and the Pacific: buoyant
International Tourist Arrivals:
131 million, +7.9%
18% of world total
Average growth : 7.2%
China +11%, Hong Kong (China) +21%, Japan +10%, Macao (China) +12%, Iran +17%
India –6.6%, Indonesia –2.2% Australia -0.7%, Malaysia +2% (11m) ▲ ▼
Average receipts per arrival (2001):
euro 800 / US$ 720
Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF):
2002: +4.5% ; 2003: +4.9%

10. Americas: still depressed
International Tourist Arrivals:
120 million, -0.6%
17% of world total
Average growth : 3.3% ▲ ▼
Canada +1.7% (11m), Argentina +15%, United States –0.1%, Mexico –0.1%
Brazil –7.2%, Cuba –6.7%, Dominican Republic –2.5%
Average receipts per arrival (2001):
euro 1130 / US$ 1010
Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF):
2002: +1.5% ; 2003: +2.7%

11. Africa: South strong / North weak
International Tourist Arrivals:
29 million, +3.7%
4% of world total
Average growth : 6.1%
South Africa +9.9% (11m), Ghana +9.9%, Tanzania +6.8%,
Senegal +5%, Botswana +7.3%
Tunisia –6.0%, Morocco
–2.7% (11m), Mauritius 1.6% (9m), Seychelles 1.7% ▲ ▼
Average receipts per arrival (2001):
euro 460 / US$ 410
Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF):
2002: +3.0% ; 2003: +4.1%

12. Middle East: strong rebound
International Tourist Arrivals:
24 million, +10.6%
3.4 % of world total
Average growth : 9.7% ▲ ▼
Egypt +9.4 (11m), Dubai +30% (6m), Jordan +6.1% (11m), Lebanon +13% (11m)
Average receipts per arrival (2001):
euro 580 / US$ 520
Economic growth (GDP, source: IMF):
2002: +1.5% ; 2003: +3.3%

13. * Estimates by WTO based on data available for part of the year
World’s Top 5 Tourism Destinations * *
* Estimates by WTO based on data available for part of the year

14. Spain: remarkable strong performance last years
International Tourist Arrivals
50.1 million in 2001, between 51 and 52 million in 2002, 2nd in Europe and in the world
International Tourism Receipts
euro 36.7 billion (2001), 1st in Europe and 2nd in the world
Average receipts per arrival euro 741 / US$ 664
Tourism represented 12% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1999

15. WTO Tourism Recovery Committee
Established in Osaka during WTO XIV General Assembly (Sept. 2001)
First meeting at WTM in London (Nov. 2001) (Special Report Number 18)
Two meetings for the Mediterranean region in Madrid (Jan. 2002) and Tunis (March) (Special Report Number 19)
Second full meeting during ITB in Berlin (March 2002) (Special Report Number 20)
Third full meeting during WTM in London (Nov. 2002) (Special Report Number 21)
See:

16. Vulnerability / resistance
(a few examples)

17. WTO Tourism Market Trends series
Series of 6 reports:
World Overview & Tourism Topics
5 regional volumes
Africa
Americas
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
Middle East
See: .org /infoshop

18. World Tourism Organization Market Intelligence and Promotion Section
Thank you very much for your attention!
World Tourism Organization
Market Intelligence and Promotion Section