1. Human Population: Chapter 11 Miller 11th Edition Chapter 7 F&R
AP Environmental Science
LCHS
Dr. E

2. https://youtu.be/fTznEIZRkLg
Ikea Boxes!!!!

3. A. Agriculture Gives Rise to Cities
Food Produced in Country, Consumed in City
Food wastes are no longer returned to soil
Soil becomes less productive
Waste of Populations Concentrated in Cities
Population Control in Medieval Societies
Infanticide
Plagues

4. B. Industrialization
View of Children During Early Phases of Industrial Growth
Valued as cheap source of income and cheap labor
Exponential growth of populations
By 1900s, Birth Rate in Industrialized World Dropped
Rise in standards of living
Safe and inexpensive means of birth control introduced
Increase in the cost of child rearing

6. Factors that Drive Human Population Growth
Demography- the study of human populations and population trends.
Changes in Population Size
Fertility
Life Expectancy
Age Structure
Migration

7. Changes in Population Size
Crude birth rate (CBR)= the number of births per 1,000 individuals per year.
Crude death rate (CDR)= the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year.
Global population growth rate =
(CBR- CDR)/ 10
National population growth rate =
(CBR+ immigration) - (CDR + emigration)/ 10
Doubling time (in years)- 70/growth rate

8. Human Population Dynamics
There are just three sources of change in population size —
fertility
mortality
"natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births
migration
Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

9. Human Population Dynamics
Total fertility rate (TFR)
The average number of children born to a woman
Average in developed countries = 1.5
Average in developing countries = 3.8
Worldwide 1990: 3.1 now: 2.76
Replacement fertility rate (RFR)
The number of children a couple must have to replace themselves
A TFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates
Africa RFR = 2.5

11. Life Expectancy
Infant mortality rate- the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births. (1990 – Now – 52.4)
Child mortality rate- the number of deaths of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births.

12. Maternal Deaths per 100,000 Live Births
Source: WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA Maternal Mortality in 1995: Estimates Developed by WHO, UNICEF AND UNFPA, 2001.

13. What Is Family Planning?
Definition
Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire)
Goals of Family Planning
Not to limit births
For couples to have healthy children
For couples to be able to care for their children
For couples to have the number of children that they want

14. Family Planning: reduce births
59% contraceptive use in developed countries -46% overall, up from 10% in 60s
FP reduces children's social services needs
FP reduces risk of childbearing deaths
FP effectiveness depends on program design and funding:
good in some counties with good program
poor in other counties

15. Family Planning: reduce births continued
Services not always accessible; add female teenagers and sexually active unmarried
Add birth control for men (sperm-killing device used in China)
If developed countries provided $17 billion/ year, and each person pays $4.80/year, average family size would be 2.1 and world population would be 2.9 billion

16. What Methods are Used to Control Births?
Preconception Birth Control Methods
Barrier Methods
Condom
Vaginal sponge
Diaphragm
Spermicides
IUD
Hormonal Contraceptives
Pill
Injections and implants
Sterilization
Postconception Birth Control Measures
RU-486 Pill (Morning after Pill)
Abortion

17. Contraceptive Use Worldwide
People in industrialized countries enjoy easy access to contraceptives while those in LDCs do not.
In the U.S., teens and poor women are least likely to use contraceptives.

18. Case Studies - China
Family planning efforts began in 1970; TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.8; infant mortality and illiteracy rates 1/3 to 1/2 of India’s rates
Population control program is extensive, intrusive and strict:
postpone childbearing
only one child/family -->benefits (2016 now 2)
effect b/c China is dictatorship; limited resources would mean disaster

19. China’s Program
Nation With Best Known Population Control Program
Reasons Chinese Government Initiated Population Control Measures
Freshwater and food at a premium for nation’s population
Country experiencing population momentum
Government Perks / Coercive Measures for Citizen Compliance
Free education and health care
Increased personal and family incomes
Increased legal marrying age for women
Contraceptives, abortions, and sterilizations free of charge
Preferential housing and retirement income

20. The 12 Most Populous Countries in the World

21. The IPAT Equation
To estimate the impact of human lifestyles on Earth we can use the IPAT equation:
Impact= Population X Affluence X Technology

22. The Impact of Affluence
Gross domestic product (GDP)- the value of all products and services produced in a year in that country.
GDP is made up of consumer spending, investments, government spending, and exports minus imports.
A countries GDP often correlates with its pollution levels.

23. Population Pyramids Graphic device: bar graph
shows the age and gender composition of a region
horizontal axis: gender
male: left-hand female: right-hand
absolute number of people or %
vertical axis: age
5-year or 10-year age groups

24. Population Pyramid with young cohorts

25. Population Pyramids High Growth: Afghanistan
Population Pyramids on the Web
High Growth: Afghanistan
Moderate Growth: Mexico
Zero Growth: U.S.
Negative Growth: Austria or Italy

30. The Stages of the Demographic Transition
Phase 1: Slow population growth because there are high birth rates and high death rates which offset each other.
Phase 2: Rapid population growth because birth rates remain high but death rates decline due to better sanitation, clean drinking water, increased access to food and goods, and access to health care.
Phase 3: Stable population growth as the economy and educational system improves and people have fewer children.
Phase 4: Declining population growth because the relatively high level of affluence and economic develop encourage women to delay having children.

31. The Demographic Transition
                                                                                                                                                                

32. Stage 1
high birth rates, high (at time erratic) death rates, low growth rates
stage for much of human history, traditional societies
practically no country today

34. Stage 2 high birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates
improvements in
sanitation (water)
and medicine
in Europe during Industrial Revolution
in developing countries since the 50s/60s
much of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.)

35. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base

36. Stage 3 continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates,
growth rates decline from
high to lower levels
change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rate
economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children)
Mexico today

37. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
stage 3: wide middle

38. Stage 4 & 5 Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low
growth rates
United States today
Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)
several countries of Europe today (Austria)

39. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
stage 4: slender

40. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
stage 5: narrow base

41. Demographic Trap
Population Path of Most Less-Developed Countries (LDCs)
“Trapped” in Stage 2 of Demographic Transition
Before 1970, LDCs seemed poised to make transition thanks to economic growth
Since 1970, economic growth has not kept pace with population
High birth and low death rates result in explosive population growth
Downward spiral in standard of living

42. Age Structure & Population Projections
Baby boomers - half of U.S. population; use most of goods and services; make political and economic decision
baby-bust generation - born since 1965; may have to pay more income, health care and social security to support retired baby boomers; but face less job competition
Better health may --> later retirement of baby boomers --> keep high-salary jobs

43. Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United States

44. Effects of Population Decline
As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins decline
60+population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume
more medical care
Social Security
costly public services
Labor shortages require automation & immigration

45. The Graying of Japan
Family-planning access, cramped housing, expensive land, late marriage, education cost --> voluntary decrease in birth rate
Low immigration rate
Health insurance and pension - 45% of national income; could -->low economy
Illegal immigration bolsters work force

46. Rewards and Penalties to reduce births
What might work:
encourage, rather than coerce, people to have fewer children
reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families
don’t penalize for already existing larger family
increase poor family’s economic status

47. Empowering women to reduce births
Women tend to have fewer, and healthier children when:
they have access to education and paying jobs outside home
their society doesn’t suppress women’s rights
But women do most of the work
not shown in GDP because of lower pay
Women excluded from economic and political decision making

48. Case Studies - India
Family planning efforts began in 1952; fertility rate declined from 5.3 to 3.4 but population grow is still exponential -1.9%
Disappointing results due to:
poor planning
bureaucratic inefficiency
low status of women
extreme poverty
lack of administrative & financial support

49. Cutting Global Population Growth
U. N.Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994
8 goals to be met by 2015
are these goals wishful thinking?
Replacement level fertility can be met in years as shown by Japan, Thailand…
Invest in family planning, reduce poverty, and elevate status of women