1. Connectivity and Super Supply Chains
AIAA Enterprise Chapter of Los Angeles AIAA Western Office
Ken Dozier
Executive Director, WESRAC
10/17/2006

2. The Western Research Application Center
learningcenter/ presentations.asp

3. WIRED Project
Department of Labor Workforce Innovation in Regional Economic Development initiative
"Innovation, education and entrepreneurship: those are the keys that will open the door to challenging and rewarding jobs."
Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, February 2, 2006
WESRAC is a funded-partner of WIRED
Interface with industry/economic development academia to support/develop education/training resources
Create sustainable innovation economic development model
Identify candidate companies for projects

4. The Future
“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”
Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric
Source: John F. Welch, Jr. Chairman / CEO General Electric’s Annual Report

5. Velocity
“ According to Silicon Valley CEO’s, 60 % of the high-tech items they manufacture today did not exist 10 months ago”
Source: Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and Commerce Agency, South Bay Economic Development Partnership, “South Bay of Los Angeles County Workforce Perspective", October 2001

6. Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985
What is Knowledge ?
Truth
Knowledge
Belief
Universal
Social
Personal
No Debate
Converge on debate
Diverge on debate
Effect
Cause
Cause
Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985

7. Technologies Change Fast
Bio-Tech
Info-Tech
WWW
Nano-Tech
Source: SRI International 2002

8. Anchor and Adjust
“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons”
- Popular Mechanics, 1949
“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”
- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876
“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it”
- New York Times, 1949
“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ”
- Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”
- Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001

9. Global Competition 1. USA Singapore Iceland Canada Finland Denmark
2. Hong Kong
Singapore
Iceland
Canada
Finland
Denmark
Switzerland
Australia
Luxembourg
Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International 2005

10. 6-D Dimensions of Global Commerce
Denationalization
Decentralization
Disaggregation
Despacialization
Demassification
Disintermediation
Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild March 2000

11. Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond
Source: Corporate Information Systems, Lynda Applegate, 1999

12. Exponential Economy An increasing attribute of our knowledge age
Copyright SRI International 2002

13. Computing Synergy 2 9 28 Possibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value2
Possibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value 9 28
Copyright SRI International 2002

14. Media Bandwidth 10^12 10^11 10^10 HDTV Video 10^9 Bandwidth Required
DSL/ Cable
IEEE 1394 / Firewire
Gigabit Ethernet
LASER / Fast Ethernet
10BaseT/CAT 5 Ethernet
Microwave
G2 Wireless
G3 / Wireless LAN
Async. Trans. Mode (ATM)
G1 Wireless
10Gig Ethernet
Voice
Internet Access
Gaming
File sharing
Digital Music
NTSC Video
VHS Video
MPEG Video
DV Video
HDTV Video
10^11
10^10
10^9
10^8
10^7
10^6
10^5
10^4
Bandwidth Required
Bits/sec (bps)
120 Gbps 12X QDR InfiniBand
10^12

15. High Performance Grid Computing

16. What’s up?
The United States initially was the world leader in broadband deployment.
Now it has plunged to 19th place.
While the United States is still first in absolute number of broadband lines, its lead will soon be overtaken by China.
Source: January 2006

17. How Important is Broadband?
The Brookings Institution estimated that America’s broadband decline could lead to a potential loss of $1 trillion in economic productivity over the next decade, as well as more than 1.2 million jobs that could be created by better broadband.
Source: The Brookings Institute 2004

18. Europe is getting it
City of Amsterdam announced a project to deploy FTTU throughout the city.
Paris, France, announced the goal of deploying FTTU throughout “all of Paris.”
The City of Vienna, Austria, announced plans for a citywide FTTU network that will provide residents 1 Gbps of symmetrical broadband capacity.

19. How Important is Computing?
Walmart Perspective
If you can understand your data, you can do predictive analysis.
It’s an advantage if suppliers can link into Walmart’s systems and perform their own analyses using Walmarts’s complex tables - CTO Walmart (September 2006)
Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006

20. How Important is Computing?
Pratt & Whitney Perspective
Building models on the computer is faster and lower-cost, and you can look at any level of detail.
Digital models are the basis for innovation.
Suppliers also do modeling and simulation to speed development and reduce costs.
We take a lot of time determining whether suppliers can use these tools.
- Chief engineer for systems analysis & aerodynamics, Pratt & Whitney (September 2006)
Source: HPC Wire, September 15th , 2006

21. How Important is Computing?
NICE: Fill the Expertise Gap
Never
Ever
User
NICE: Move Users Forward
Competitiveness Transformation Challenge
National Innovation Collaboration Ecosystem (NICE)
Entry
Level
HPC
User
Number of Users
Number of Applications
Experienced
HPC User
“Heroes”
World Class Computing
Mid Range HPC User “Missing Middle” 1 2 4 64
Nodes
1,000
10,000+
Source: USC ISI

22. Dynamic Systems Common modes of behavior in dynamic systems
Source: System Dynamics, John Sterman, 2000

23. Exponential Growth
How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be?
How thick would it be after 100 folds?

24. Exponential Growth The Answers
42 folds = 440,000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon.)
100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun!

25. The Beer Game
Steady state at 4 cases per week.

26. Connectivity

27. The Beer Game - Not Sharing
The system after only a single change from 4 to 8 case.

28. The Beer Game - Sharing
Knowledge sharing, reduces the damage of a simple change in the system.

29. Findings
Disruptions move up and down the supply chain. Creates a state of co-dependency.
Knowledge sharing between members of the supply chain tend to suppress the damage created by unwanted oscillations.
Grid computing can create a B2B trust environment that creates super supply chains.

30. For more information, please write:
Contact Information
For more information, please write: