1. Using Local Polling to Provide Relevant Science Skagit Climate Science Consortium Larry Wasserman and Carol Macilroy Salish Sea Conference March 2016

2. Today Brief background on SC2 - Why local polling?
Skagit County 2015 Global Warming Perceptions Polling Results
How Results Affected SC2 Outreach and Engagement

3. Skagit River Watershed
3rd largest river in Western US
Six species of wild salmon
4 Native American Tribes
1/3 fresh water to Puget Sound
Most glaciers (394) in Lower US
Two hydroelectric complexes
Three counties – Human population centers in Skagit County
US/Canada

4. SC2 – Skagit Climate Science Consortium
501 c(3) Nonprofit – 2014 (meeting since 2009)
Mission
Foster collaborative Skagit climate research
Produce relevant climate science products
Link people with scientists and scientific information
501 c(3) Nonprofit
Mission
Foster collaborative Skagit climate research
Produce relevant climate science products
Link people with scientists and scientific information

5. SC2 – Skagit Climate Science Consortium
Members Come From:
Western Washington University
University of Washington Climate Impacts Group
US Geological Survey, US Forest Service, Nat. Park Service
NOAA – National Marine Fisheries Service
Seattle City Light
Pacific Northwest National Labs (Battelle)
Skagit River System Cooperative
Swinomish Indian Tribal Community
University of Notre Dame

7. Survey Partners
Skagit Climate Science Consortium (SC2) Yale Project for Climate Change Communications

8. Sample Surveyed County-wide survey of Skagit County residents
1,000 random digit dial telephone interviews
Conducted in May 2015
Offered in Spanish
Average interview length: 24 minutes
Skagit County, Washington

9. Overview of Survey Findings
Skagit County residents aware of climate challenge
Recognize risks associated with climate
Underestimate magnitude of key known risks
Want others and themselves to prepare and to act
Need more information

10. Skagit County residents aware of the general “climate challenge”
79% believe global warming is real 59% believe it is human-caused
79% -- What do you think: Do you think that global warming is happening, or not? If you’re not sure, just let me know. Base: Total respondents (n=1000).
59% -- Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is... Base: Total respondents (n=1000).

11. Recognize Risks Associated with Climate Change
65% are worried about global warming 65% believe Skagit County will be harmed within 25 years 31% think the Skagit County area and its residents are already being harmed
65% -- How worried are you about global warming – very worried, somewhat worried, not very worried, or not at all worried? Base: Total respondents (n=1000.
65% and 31% (part of same question)-- When do you think global warming will start to harm people in Skagit County? Would you say... Base: Total respondents (n=1000).

12. Climate Impacts Locally Identified, but Skagit Residents Underestimate
In your opinion, have each of following become more severe, less severe, or stayed about the same in the Skagit County over the past several years? Base: Skagit Co. residents (n=1,000)
In terms of personal risk issue that we took out:
In your opinion, how likely is it that each of the following would directly impact you or your family in Skagit County? First…
Base: Total Skagit Co. residents who think global warming is happening (n=788).

13. Large Majorities – Important to Prepare
73% believe it is important to prepare for the effects of global warming
73% -- Please tell me, in your opinion, whether the following are very important, moderately important, not very important, not at all important…To prepare for the potential impacts of global warming in Skagit County? Base: Skagit Co. residents (n=1,000)

14. Who Does Public Think Should Act
66% Federal 65% State 60% Local government 57% Businesses 57-62% NGO’s 65% Individuals should act
Should Act
All percentages -- Do you think the following should be doing much more, more, less much less, about the same as it is doing now to prepare for the potential impacts of global warming in Skagit County? Base: Skagit Co. residents (n=1,000)

15. Skagit County Residents Need Information
30% Need more information to protect themselves and their families
30% -- Over the next 12 months, do you think you will get the information you need about the risks you face from flooding, water supply problems, landslides, and other natural issues? Would you say... (n=1000).

16. Conclusion Aware and concerned
Don’t fully understand climate impacts and consequences
Motivated to act
Want others to act
Want information

17. Who is Most Concerned? Where do they go for Information?

18. Who is Most Concerned? Highly “formally educated” younger women
Democrats
Under age 30 (90%) vs. those over age 48 (76%)
Lower incomes concerned about current risk:
42% under $20,000 vs. 26% over $100,000
Lower incomes concerned about future impacts:
53% under $100,000 vs. 38% over $100,000
Where are survey respondents in this model?
There was less willingness to take any specific action than there was to "take
action" in general.
 29% said they needed more information.

19. Where do People Get Climate Related Information
Majorities:
local TV news and radio (67%), newspapers (49%)
national network (67%) and cable news (57%)
PBS (59%)
Those under 30 same as general public but add in:
Social media (64%) and slightly higher percentages on local sources including local news websites
Please tell me whether or not you ever get information about global warming from the following. First...
Base: Skagit Co. residents (n=1,000)

20. How did survey findings affect our work?
Disciplines:
Climate science
Hydrology
Ecology
Fisheries
Utilities and climate

21. What Has Changed for SC2?
Scientists have more confidence in receptive audience
Improved ability to see website usage
Validated importance of SC2 outreach efforts
KSVR interviews and radio shows
Skagit Valley Herald “climate series”
Seattle Times “climate insert”
Anacortes effort
Improved Communication Tools

22. What Changed? Scientists have more confidence in receptive audience
Improved ability to see website usage
Validated importance of SC2 outreach efforts
KSVR interviews and radio shows
Skagit Valley Herald “climate series”
Seattle Times “climate insert”
Anacortes effort
Improved Communication Tools

23. 2040s Changes in Flood Risk Skagit River at Mount Vernon (2011)
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach
Historical

24. 2040s Changes in Flood Risk Skagit River at Mount Vernon
WHAT?
Where are survey respondents in this model?
There was less willingness to take any specific action than there was to "take
action" in general.
 29% said they needed more information.
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach
Historical

31. By 2040’s a 22-year event -- not a 100-year event

32. STILL LEARNING!
More to come as we continue to test if changes are working and adapt.
Survey Results:
Educational Resources/Infographics:
onal-resources/

33. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST
THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST! For more information, contact Carol MacIlroy at or 206–

34. Thank You
This project has been funded in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under assistance agreement 00J to the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community. The contents of this website do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Additional support has graciously been provided by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, City of Anacortes and Seattle City Light.