1. Introduction / Formalities
Meetings: Every 2 weeks for 2 hours
Exercises / Homework:
May be done individually or in groups of two.
Objective of the course:
Presentation of phenomena.
Explication of mechanisms.
Methodological principles.
Improvement of critical thinking skills.

2. Introduction / Formalities
Questions, discussion, etc. are welcome. Please do not hesitate to pose questions or provide comments.
Load down the manuscript and provide your own notes.
It might be helpful to read relevant passages in advance.

3. Introduction / Overview
Introduction, Basics: Rationality.
Biases in Causal Judgments.
Errors in memory judgments.
Probability judgments.
Paradoxes and biases of human decision making.

4. 1. Basic considerations I
How can one assess judgmental errors and rational behavior?
Principle 1:
Recourse to normative principles.
These must be applicable to the current case.
Principle 2: Rational behavior
Optimizing expected subjective utility.

5. 1. Basic considerations II
Example: Transitivity of preferences: Incongruent preference ordering of the opponent:
Dutch book and probability axioms
Round Me
Opponent
Preference 1. B
F, H
B F 2. F
B, H
F H 3. H
B, F
H B 4.

6. 1. Basic considerations III
SEU: Subjective expected utility:
Epistemic vs. instrumental rationality:
May result in different outcomes.
Criticisms of research on biases:
Normative principles.
Applicability of principles.
Ecological representativeness.

7. 1. Basic considerations IV
Ex.: Singular events and the application of probability theory
Rejection of games with positive expected utility:
Repetition changes the situation completely.
Hot and cold cognition
Biases due to motivational factors vs. due to basic cognitive limitations

8. 2. Contingency and Causality I
Examples from everyday life:
Identification of non-existing associations
Failure to identify relevant causes.
Chapman & Chapman (1969)
Psychiatrists fail to identify relevant signs.
Naïve show the same failures.

9. 2. Contingency and Causality II
Chapman & Chapman (1969)
Learning: Despite a lack of contingency a link between plausible symptoms and homosexuality was »learned«.
Valid symptoms could not be learned in the presence of plausible symptoms.

10. 2. Contingency and Causality III
Cognitive mechanism: Subjective [plausible] folk theories.
Acquisition of subjective theories.
Cultural learning / tradition / common sense
Role of similarity.
Further causes of the aquisition of faulty theories will follow.
Vagueness of subjective theories.
Barnum (Forer) effect.

11. 2. Contingency and Causality IV
Cognitive mechanism: Subjective [plausible] folk theories.
Psychology as a source of erroneous psychological theories:
Traumatic experiences are repressed.
People tend to incestuous behavior.
Acting out one’s aggression has a cathartic effect.

12. 2. Contingency and Causality V
Cognitive mechanism: Subjective [plausible] folk theories.
Neuropsychology as a source of erroneous psychological theories:
We use only 10% of our brain.
»Mirror neurons« are the basis of empathic behavior.

13. 2. Contingency and Causality VI
Maintenance of subjective theories.
Vagueness of subjective theories: Barnum effect.
Arbitrariness of everyday explanations.
Pattern recognition capabilities.
Patterns in random sequences

14. 2. Contingency and Causality VIII
Barnum effect: Text
You have a great need for other people to like and admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. Security is one of your major goals in life.

15. 2. Contingency and Causality IX
Barnum (Forer) effect: Strategies:
Truisms.
Flattery.
Statements that are partly true.
Statements with restricting remarks.
The feeling to be seen through.
Problem of vague theories in psychology & neuropsychology: E.g. Localisation of cognitive functions.