1. International Association of Law Enforcement Planners - SW
Tucson, Feb. 13, 2007
Tucson Police Academy
McGillacudhy’s Law:
Pure drivel drives out ordinary drivel

2. Socio-Economic Factors And Why you care
ARIZONA = CHANGE
Socio-Economic Factors
And
Why you care

3. Population: Next 30 years

4. PAST IS PROLOGUE ?
Original port of entry was Guaymas - early Anglo entrepreneurs married a ‘Mexican Connection’
Coming of the railroad in 1880 changed the axis of trade from North-South to East-West. Alliances fell by the way.
Our new ‘Port of Entry’ may return to Guaymas or Topolobampo. NAFTA-Land returns the original pattern
Bilingual kids are appreciating assets not liabilities. They will make the alliances in Latin American our generation did not accomplish.
CANMEX TALES
The trade of Mexico west of the Sierras must come to Tucson before it goes east-west to Texas and California. About 85% of the shipments through Tucson go to one or the other.
See the Mexican trucks. See the trucks bypass Nogales but stop here to offload cargoes at multimodal centers. See Tucson grow.

5. Arizona: 2036 – Top 5 State?
During the next 30 years, AZ will add another 8.5 million residents to the 6.2+ million current population
This would make AZ the 5th largest state – the size of Illinois today
Only California, Texas, New York and Florida would be larger
Population growth driven by migration from the Rust Belt, California and Latin America/Asia
Rapid growth in Hispanics will make AZ ‘younger’ than most forecasts predict.
Metro Phoenix will be 10 million; Tucson about 1.75 mil.

6. AZ’s Economy – 2036
More than 14.6 million will call AZ home, 4% of the nation’s pop.
Over 20% of the population will be 65 or more – today it is 12%
Working age population will decline from 66% to 59% of the total – youth and seniors grow more than do workers
Per capita incomes will remain below the national average and will decline from 85% of national to 80% in 2036.
AZ will become “overpopulated” and “underdeveloped”
Transfer payments to seniors will be significant source of personal income
Leading job sectors will include: professional and business services, health care and social services, transportation and warehousing, leisure and hospitality and trade
AZ’s goods producing sectors’ share will continue to decline

7. Our growth is fueled by migration
Our growth is fueled by migration. This is partially driven by jobs, by retirement and by educational opportunities.
High Turnover - Low Psychological Equity
About 30% of the population has been here less than 5 yrs.
About 54% of the population has been in their present home less that 5 years.
300,000 people who think there is an “N” in Wilmot.
Hard to organize anyone
Hard to convince folks we are all on the same lake in the same boat
Low knowledge of issues among citizens - low interest in public affairs
Must stay on message as the audience just changed!

8. The City of Tucson’s density is about 2,500 folks per sq. mile.
This is not far from that of other Western cities, but well below major population centers, even that of Los Angeles.
We don’t have the density to make many transportation options work.
If we wanted to change our transportation modes, we would have to select much denser land use patterns or radically configured ones - e.g., ‘desert villages’. However, most of us moved here to get away from such density. Many lust for ‘17 acres and a horse for Johnny’.

9. HISTORICAL RACE %:
200 Centuries = 100% Native Americans
Then, we were Spain; for 200 years
Then Mexico for 30 yrs
AZ south of the Gila River;
Then INTO the US - BY an accident -
We become Hawaii - with no group being a majority - by 2007?
The exact year is irrelevant, the trend is all.

10. The classic ‘Triangle’ shape of the age-sex pyramid is fading away.

11. The age-sex pyramid has become a rectangle.
Suggests more liberal politics
The greed generation turns socialist

12. Big growth in women super seniors.
Baby boomers have inherited 9 trillion dollars
Baby bust presents marketing challenges
Note the baby boom echo I and II are smaller

13. A tsunami of older housing is soon to hit the beach.
What will be the replacement for all the cheaply constructed housing built after the big war?
Nearly all the fix-ups will have to be funded locally.

14. The central issue of the last 30 years in Tucson has been the LOSS of real incomes for our workers. We are on the path to recovery, but we are still behind where we were in 1973 !

15. Content from: The Sun Corridor Seminar: PAF 591, Spring 2006
Robert Lang, Virginia Tech
John Hall, ASU

16. Business 2.0 November 2005 Megapolitan Area Centerfold

17. Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography

18. Evolving 20th Century Metropolitan Form

19. 21st Century Corridor Megapolitan Form

20. ArizonaSun Corridor

21. Arizona Sun Corridor’s Types of Urban Realms
Description
Realms
Urban Core
Original core of metropolitan development. Cores are dense and often built out.
Central Valley
Tucson Valley
Favored Quarter
The most affluent realm containing upscale housing, retail, and office space.
Northeast Valley
Foothills
Maturing Suburbs
Rapidly developing suburbs with mature older sections and booming edges.
East Valley
West Valley
Emerging Exurbs
The most scattered and detached urban development in the region. Exurbs contain the most affordable housing.
Mid Corridor
Northwest Valley
Santa Cruz Valley
San Pedro Valley

22. Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

23. Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

24. Housing and Equity

25. The Sun Corridor: % Average Annualized Rate of Domestic Net Migration – Where Will These People Live?
Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: ”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06 (

26. The Sun Corridor is a Destination for People who are Relocating
Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: ”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06 (

27. “The West is The Best” - Jim Morrison, The End, 1967
Source: “Economic Outlook: ”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

28. Estimated Median Market Value
Source:

29. ArizonaSun Corridor

30. Housing Appreciation
Source:

31. Housing Burden
Source:

32. Overcrowded Housing
Source:

33. Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities
Source: “Economic Outlook: ”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

34. The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic
Golf Links to Social Links:
The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic
Median age of White population in Arizona: 40
Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years.
Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market.
Inclusion of elderly family members in household.
Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a priority
‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive
Less resistance to attached housing
The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor.

35. Big growth in women super seniors.
Baby boomers have inherited 9 trillion dollars
Baby bust presents marketing challenges
Note the baby boom echo I and II are smaller

36. Education

37. Education in the Sun Corridor
How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?

38. “Living on the Kindness of Strangers”
Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor
The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average
The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average

39. English Language Learners (ELL)
Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%)
Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs

40. Higher Education in the Sun Corridor
In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona-tied for 97th)
Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A
Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th

41. Community Colleges Sun Corridor is a national leader
The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students)
Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training

42. Leading Realms in Higher Education
State Universities-Main or Branch Campuses
Other Educational Institutions of Note
Central Valley
ASU West, ASU Downtown Center
Several community colleges Thunderbird School of Management
East Valley
Main Campus ASU
ASU East
Several community colleges
Tucson Valley
University of Arizona
Pima Community College

43. Exurban Realms State Universities- Main or Branch campuses
Other Institutions of Note
Northwest Valley
None
Prescott College Yavapai College Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Santa Cruz Valley
San Pedro Valley
Cochise College

44. Very Underserved Realms
State Universities- Main or Branch Campuses
Other Institutions of Note
West Valley
None
One community college
Northeast Valley
Mid-Corridor
Foothills

45. Economy

46. Economic Composition Leading Industries Secondary Industries
Construction/Real Estate
Consumer Services
Secondary Industries
Aerospace
Producer Services
F.I.RE
Law, Marketing
High-Tech/Bio
Military
Entrepreneurial
Opportunities
Baby Boomer Bio
Western Product Gateway
Next Generation Infrastructure

47. Realm by Realm Assets, Opportunities & Challenges

48. Employment Centers

49. Evolving 20th Century Metropolitan Form

50. Economic Development in the Realms
Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs
Assets
Prescott Airport
Opportunities
Anthem
Lake Pleasant
Challenges
Connectivity to Phoenix
Transportation Corridors
West Valley: The Sleeping Giant
Assets
Available Land Mass
Airports
Opportunities
Future freeway corridors (303, 801)
Building [sub]urban core from scratch
Challenges
Getting someone to test the water

51. ArizonaSun Corridor

52. Economic Development in the Realms
Central Valley: Employment Center
Assets
Downtown Phoenix
Sky Harbor
I-10 Distribution Corridor
Opportunities
Redevelopment
Stadium/Arena
Challenges
Aging Infrastructure
Suburban Flight
Residential Composition
Northeast Valley: The Crown Jewel
Assets
Camelback Corridor
Scottsdale Airpark
Deer Valley Airport
Opportunities
Old Towne Redevelopment
Palisene
Challenges
Affordability
Infill Opportunity

53. ArizonaSun Corridor

54. Economic Development in the Realms
East Valley: Young & Emerging
Assets
ASU
Chandler/Price Corridor
Mesa Airports
Opportunities
SanTan Corridor
Original Core Redevelopment
Challenges
Available Land
Mid Corridor: In the Crosshairs
Assets
Phoenix Regional Airport
1-10 and I-8
Opportunities
Land, Land, Land
Intermodel Hub of Region
Challenges
Cohesive Land & Transportation Planning
Sense of place as connecting point between Phoenix and Tucson

55. ArizonaSun Corridor

56. Economic Development in the Realms
Foothills: Uptown
Assets
Wealth
Resorts
Opportunities
Oro Valley corridor
Marana
Challenges
Connectivity to Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor
Tucson Valley: Downtown
Assets
UofA
Downtown Tucson
Opportunities
Employment Center serving all 4 Tucson realms
Challenges
Transportation

57. ArizonaSun Corridor

58. Economic Development in the Realms
Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway
Assets
I-19
Opportunities
Transition center between Mexico/US
I-19 connection to/from Mexico
Challenges
Connectivity to other realms
San Pedro Valley: Still Camouflaged
Assets
Fort Huachuca
Opportunities
Transition center between Mexico/US
I-10 connection to El Paso
Challenges
Connectivity to other realms

59. Infrastructure

60. Population Growth=More Congestion
Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled, per region
(in millions of miles)

61. Highway Projects in Sun Corridor

62. Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling the Gaps

63. CANAMEX

64. Sun Corridor pop. weighted to north
I want to start by looking at what has driven the Sun Corridor’s airport plan: not surprisingly, it’s where the people are.
Here are the housing units projected by MAG just four years from now, a reasonable accurate projection.
And here is MAG’s projection for housing units in Note the expansion occurs in all realms, but the most explosive growth is in the Mid-Corridor, shifting the population center south.
Housing Units
2010

65. Airports follow the people …
So, let’s add the airports.
In 2010, the balance seems about right. Phoenix is adds Williams Gateway in the East Valley realm as a reliever, and other airports in the western and northeastern realms are planning improvements to be similarly used.
2010

66. Northern tier’s realms dominate Sun Corridor aviation
PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations
TUC: 4 million passengers 43,000 air carrier operations
The aviation sector is heavily imbalanced in the direction of the northern sun corridor, a result of the population imbalance and the multiple realms surrounding the central valley.
To give an idea of this imbalance:
Sky Harbor enplaned more than 20 million passengers last year, and ran more 555,000 flights
By contrast, Tucson International enplaned slightly more than 4 million passengers and ran 284,000 flights, the majority of which were small planes. (58%)
So, the question for the Sun Corridor is:

67. Pop. balance shifts south
Housing Units
2050
Here are the housing units projected by MAG just four years from now, a reasonable accurate projection.
And here is MAG’s projection for housing units in Note the expansion occurs in all realms, but the most explosive growth is in the Mid-Corridor, shifting the population center south.
Housing Units
2010

68. Where will the next PHX be?
But the MAG projection shows a shift to the south in population. So, should the reliever model in short term, give way to the regional model in the long term? Likely, a reliever airport in Casa Grande or Maricopa in the Mid-Corridor would emerge as the regional airport, due to the convergence of open space, and even of ….
2050

69. Is the Sun Corridor DFW or LAX?
Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model
Less complex, for passengers, industry
Better control of environmental issues
Requires authority
Los Angeles = reliever system
Redundancy
Complex airspace, connection, access
Shares economic burden, boom
Recent trends  PHX = LAX
That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network?
Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX?
Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits.
Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it.
So, is that a good idea?

70. And will rail be included?
MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it
Lack of connection between north, south, Mid
Increasing population pressure from Mid
Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from both north, south and Mid
That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network?
Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX?
Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits.
Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it.
So, is that a good idea?

71. In and Out of the Sun Corridor
Freeways/Highways:
Congestion—Central Corridor
Tucson must build highways
Need for increased planning between realms
Revenue challenge
Aviation
Current population imbalance drives reliever system, LAX style
Southward population shift may demand regional airport in Mid-Corridor
Regional airport, population pressure may push rail effort
That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network?
Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX?
Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits.
Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it.
So, is that a good idea?

72. Environment and Open Space

73. Active Management Areas

74. AMA Annual Use

75. Sun Corridor: Water Water
Central AZ Project (CAP) Active Management Areas (AMAs)
Correspond to Sun Corridor
Grouping based on the realms of influence, permitting growth
Allows areas to recharge groundwater – especially important in non-SRP areas
Salt River Project allows for greater growth of realms within it: NE, E, Cent., W
Consists of reservoirs, storing runoff from mountains
Infrastructure built to sustain agriculture, now used for residential supplies, also for landscaping

76. Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure
Central AZ Project (CAP) Active Management Areas (AMAs)
Correspond to Sun Corridor
Grouping based on the realms of influence, permitting growth
Allows areas to recharge groundwater – especially important in non-SRP areas
Salt River Project allows for greater growth of realms within it: NE, E, Cent., W
Consists of reservoirs, storing runoff from mountains
Infrastructure built to sustain agriculture, now used for residential supplies, also for landscaping
Salt River Project watershed

77. Central Arizona Project

78. What Future?

79. General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications
The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley
The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips
Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation, Environmental Pres. and Economic Development
Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs Some Measure of Autonomy
But Realms also Need More Effective Integration and Coordination

80. Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications
Core Realms
Infill and Redevelopment
Favored Quarter Realms
Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing
Maturing Suburbs Realms
Create Mixed Use Centers
Emerging Exurban Realms
Open Space Preservation

81. Major Issues
Increased access to goods and services by means other than the automobile. Mobility can not be reserved for the wealthy.
Preservation and revitalization of older portions of the community - reinvestment, infill, and rehabilitation. We must build upon a century of investment.

82. Major Issues
Increased commitment to environmental quality and protection of endangered species. We need to buy open space and sensitive areas suitable for preservation.
Construction of land use patterns that unify communities rather than divide them.
Increased development of master-planned communities rather than subdivisions done in isolation.

83. Major Issues Support for the poor and needy Reduction of poverty
Increase in real household incomes
Commitment to education, both K-16 and workforce training
Recruitment of 21st Century jobs
Retention and expansion of existing businesses

84. Major Issues
Funding of public services by appropriate, urban revenue sources. We must tax services. Our students may not progress?
Regional approaches to regional problems
“The time for action is past,
Now is the time for mindless bickering.”

85. Major Issues Sprawl, however defined, is NOT the Issue
nor is density, congestion, transit, the environment, preservation, taxes, mixed-use, or growth.
The issue is whether or not we can make a more sustainable community rather than a collection of revenue starved, competitive, parochial fiefs.