1. The Sun Corridor Seminar: PAF 591, Spring 2006
Final Class Presentation
Instructors:
Robert Lang, Virginia Tech
John Hall, ASU

2. What’s in This Talk?
Review of Megapolitan Area Geography
Arizona Sun Corridor Geography
The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms
Central Class Findings
What’s in This Talk? Next Steps in the Sun Corridor Project

3. Megas In the News
Arizona Republic
March 2006

4. The Reality is That They Have Already Statistically Merged

5. Business 2.0 November 2005 Megapolitan Area Centerfold

6. Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography

7. 2006 Metropolitan Hierarchy
Types
Description
Examples
Metropolitan
Current definition of the Census Bureau
Pittsburgh, Boise
Metroplex
Two or more metropolitan areas that share overlapping suburbs but the main principal cities do not touch
Dallas/Ft. Worth, Washington/ Baltimore
Corridor
Megapolitan
Two or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities between 75 and 150 miles apart that form an extended linear urban area along an Interstate
Arizona Sun Corridor (Phoenix/Tucson),
SanSac (San Francisco/
Sacramento)
Galactic
Three or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities over 150 miles apart that form an urban web over a broad area that is laced with Interstates
Piedmont, Great Lakes Crescent
Megaplex
Two megapolitan areas that are proximate and occupy common cultural and physical environments and maintain dense business linkages
Megalopolis and Great Lakes Crescent, Sun Corridor and SoCal

8. Evolving 20th Century Metropolitan Form

9. 21st Century Corridor Megapolitan Form

10. Urban Realms

11. ArizonaSun Corridor

12. Arizona Sun Corridor’s Types of Urban Realms
Description
Realms
Urban Core
Original core of metropolitan development. Cores are dense and often built out.
Central Valley
Tucson Valley
Favored Quarter
The most affluent realm containing upscale housing, retail, and office space.
Northeast Valley
Foothills
Maturing Suburbs
Rapidly developing suburbs with mature older sections and booming edges.
East Valley
West Valley
Emerging Exurbs
The most scattered and detached urban development in the region. Exurbs contain the most affordable housing.
Mid Corridor
Northwest Valley
Santa Cruz Valley
San Pedro Valley

13. Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

14. Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

15. Housing and Equity

16. Housing/Equity Issues in the Sun Corridor Realms
Housing Market Values by Realm
Housing Appreciation Rates by Realm
Housing Burden and Overcrowding by Realm
Comparisons between Phoenix and Tucson Housing Markets – Simultaneity?
Comparison between Phoenix & Tucson Housing Markets
Changing demographics will change the form of housing.

17. The Sun Corridor: % Average Annualized Rate of Domestic Net Migration – Where Will These People Live?
Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: ”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06 (

18. The Sun Corridor is a Destination for People who are Relocating
Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: ”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06 (

19. “The West is The Best” - Jim Morrison, The End, 1967
Source: “Economic Outlook: ”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

20. Estimated Median Market Value
Source:

21. Housing Appreciation
Source:

22. The Sun Corridor had 3 out of the Top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions with Highest Rates of House Price Appreciation
Percent Change in House Prices
with MSA Rankings
(4th Quarter 2005 House Price Index)
(Period Ended December 31, 2005)
MSA
Ranking
1 Yr.
Qtr.
5 Yr.
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale 1
39.67
7.77
93.02
Prescott 5
31.89
6.93
86.72
Tucson 15
30.02
7.00
81.93
Source: “Housing Price Appreciation Continues At Robust Pace”, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), 3/1/06

23. Housing Burden
Source:

24. Overcrowded Housing
Source:

25. Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities
Source: “Economic Outlook: ”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

26. Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities
Source: “Economic Outlook: ”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

27. Phoenix and Tucson Comparison
Source: “Economic Outlook: ”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05

28. The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic
Golf Links to Social Links:
The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic
Median age of White population in Arizona: 40
Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years.
Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market.
Inclusion of elderly family members in household.
Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a priority
‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive
Less resistance to attached housing
The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor.

29. Education

30. Education in the Sun Corridor
How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?

31. “Living on the Kindness of Strangers”
Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor
The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average
The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average

32. English Language Learners (ELL)
Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%)
Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs

33. Higher Education in the Sun Corridor
In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona-tied for 97th)
Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A
Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th

34. Community Colleges Sun Corridor is a national leader
The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students)
Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training

35. Leading Realms in Higher Education
State Universities-Main or Branch Campuses
Other Educational Institutions of Note
Central Valley
ASU West, ASU Downtown Center
Several community colleges Thunderbird School of Management
East Valley
Main Campus ASU
ASU East
Several community colleges
Tucson Valley
University of Arizona
Pima Community College

36. Exurban Realms State Universities- Main or Branch campuses
Other Institutions of Note
Northwest Valley
None
Prescott College Yavapai College Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Santa Cruz Valley
San Pedro Valley
Cochise College

37. Very Underserved Realms
State Universities- Main or Branch Campuses
Other Institutions of Note
West Valley
None
One community college
Northeast Valley
Mid-Corridor
Foothills

38. Economy

39. Topics Composition of the Economy Realm Share of Development
Employment Centers

40. Economic Composition Leading Industries Secondary Industries
Construction/Real Estate
Consumer Services
Secondary Industries
Aerospace
Producer Services
F.I.RE
Law, Marketing
High-Tech/Bio
Military
Entrepreneurial
Opportunities
Baby Boomer Bio
Western Product Gateway
Next Generation Infrastructure

41. Market Share

42. Inventory – Office Development
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

43. Inventory – Industrial Development
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

44. Inventory – Retail Development
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005

45. Realm by Realm Assets, Opportunities & Challenges

46. Employment Centers

47. Economic Development in the Realms
Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs
Assets
Prescott Airport
Opportunities
Anthem
Lake Pleasant
Challenges
Connectivity to Phoenix
Transportation Corridors
West Valley: The Sleeping Giant
Assets
Available Land Mass
Airports
Opportunities
Future freeway corridors (303, 801)
Building [sub]urban core from scratch
Challenges
Getting someone to test the water

48. Economic Development in the Realms
Central Valley: Employment Center
Assets
Downtown Phoenix
Sky Harbor
I-10 Distribution Corridor
Opportunities
Redevelopment
Stadium/Arena
Challenges
Aging Infrastructure
Suburban Flight
Residential Composition
Northeast Valley: The Crown Jewel
Assets
Camelback Corridor
Scottsdale Airpark
Deer Valley Airport
Opportunities
Old Towne Redevelopment
Palisene
Challenges
Affordability
Infill Opportunity

49. Economic Development in the Realms
East Valley: Young & Emerging
Assets
ASU
Chandler/Price Corridor
Mesa Airports
Opportunities
SanTan Corridor
Original Core Redevelopment
Challenges
Available Land
Mid Corridor: In the Crosshairs
Assets
Phoenix Regional Airport
1-10 and I-8
Opportunities
Land, Land, Land
Intermodel Hub of Region
Challenges
Cohesive Land & Transportation Planning
Sense of place as connecting point between Phoenix and Tucson

50. Economic Development in the Realms
Foothills: Uptown
Assets
Wealth
Resorts
Opportunities
Oro Valley corridor
Marana
Challenges
Connectivity to Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor
Tucson Valley: Downtown
Assets
UofA
Downtown Tucson
Opportunities
Employment Center serving all 4 Tucson realms
Challenges
Transportation

51. Economic Development in the Realms
Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway
Assets
I-19
Opportunities
Transition center between Mexico/US
I-19 connection to/from Mexico
Challenges
Connectivity to other realms
San Pedro Valley: Still Camouflaged
Assets
Fort Huachuca
Opportunities
Transition center between Mexico/US
I-10 connection to El Paso
Challenges
Connectivity to other realms

52. Infrastructure

53. Population Growth=More Congestion
Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled, per region
(in millions of miles)

54. Highway Projects in Sun Corridor

55. Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling the Gaps

56. CANAMEX

57. Sun Corridor pop. weighted to north
I want to start by looking at what has driven the Sun Corridor’s airport plan: not surprisingly, it’s where the people are.
Here are the housing units projected by MAG just four years from now, a reasonable accurate projection.
And here is MAG’s projection for housing units in Note the expansion occurs in all realms, but the most explosive growth is in the Mid-Corridor, shifting the population center south.
Housing Units
2010

58. Airports follow the people …
So, let’s add the airports.
In 2010, the balance seems about right. Phoenix is adds Williams Gateway in the East Valley realm as a reliever, and other airports in the western and northeastern realms are planning improvements to be similarly used.
2010

59. Northern tier’s realms dominate Sun Corridor aviation
PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations
TUC: 4 million passengers 43,000 air carrier operations
The aviation sector is heavily imbalanced in the direction of the northern sun corridor, a result of the population imbalance and the multiple realms surrounding the central valley.
To give an idea of this imbalance:
Sky Harbor enplaned more than 20 million passengers last year, and ran more 555,000 flights
By contrast, Tucson International enplaned slightly more than 4 million passengers and ran 284,000 flights, the majority of which were small planes. (58%)
So, the question for the Sun Corridor is:

60. Pop. balance shifts south
Housing Units
2050
Here are the housing units projected by MAG just four years from now, a reasonable accurate projection.
And here is MAG’s projection for housing units in Note the expansion occurs in all realms, but the most explosive growth is in the Mid-Corridor, shifting the population center south.
Housing Units
2010

61. Where will the next PHX be?
But the MAG projection shows a shift to the south in population. So, should the reliever model in short term, give way to the regional model in the long term? Likely, a reliever airport in Casa Grande or Maricopa in the Mid-Corridor would emerge as the regional airport, due to the convergence of open space, and even of ….
2050

62. Is the Sun Corridor DFW or LAX?
Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model
Less complex, for passengers, industry
Better control of environmental issues
Requires authority
Los Angeles = reliever system
Redundancy
Complex airspace, connection, access
Shares economic burden, boom
Recent trends  PHX = LAX
That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network?
Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX?
Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits.
Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it.
So, is that a good idea?

63. And will rail be included?
MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it
Lack of connection between north, south, Mid
Increasing population pressure from Mid
Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from both north, south and Mid
That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network?
Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX?
Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits.
Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it.
So, is that a good idea?

64. In and Out of the Sun Corridor
Freeways/Highways:
Congestion—Central Corridor
Tucson must build highways
Need for increased planning between realms
Revenue challenge
Aviation
Current population imbalance drives reliever system, LAX style
Southward population shift may demand regional airport in Mid-Corridor
Regional airport, population pressure may push rail effort
That is, do we want a central airport to serve the entire corridor, around which the Sun Corridor plans its transportation and economic network?
Or do we want redundancy, as well as a spreading of the access, burden and boom, like LAX?
Key components to consider are that a central airport is less complex, both in for the caretakers and the passengers, and is easier to control the environmental hazards, while the regional system provides economic sharing of the costs and benefits.
Phoenix has announced major terminal and airport access upgrades, and will likely (has) acquired a large stake in the operation of Williams Gateway, with hopes to run air carrier flights out of it.
So, is that a good idea?

65. Environment and Open Space

66. Active Management Areas

67. AMA Annual Use

68. Sun Corridor: Water Water
Central AZ Project (CAP) Active Management Areas (AMAs)
Correspond to Sun Corridor
Grouping based on the realms of influence, permitting growth
Allows areas to recharge groundwater – especially important in non-SRP areas
Salt River Project allows for greater growth of realms within it: NE, E, Cent., W
Consists of reservoirs, storing runoff from mountains
Infrastructure built to sustain agriculture, now used for residential supplies, also for landscaping

69. Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure
Central AZ Project (CAP) Active Management Areas (AMAs)
Correspond to Sun Corridor
Grouping based on the realms of influence, permitting growth
Allows areas to recharge groundwater – especially important in non-SRP areas
Salt River Project allows for greater growth of realms within it: NE, E, Cent., W
Consists of reservoirs, storing runoff from mountains
Infrastructure built to sustain agriculture, now used for residential supplies, also for landscaping
Salt River Project watershed

70. Central Arizona Project

71. Groundwater
*The Northwest, Central, Mid Corridor, and Foothills realms have no pumping stations

72. Air Quality 2004 Annual Daily Average

73. Open Space

74. Open Space Environmental Impact Economic Impact
Preservation of significant areas
Quality of Life

75. Effective Open Space Conservation
Local political and constituent support
Strong state enabling legislation
Healthy local economy
Community’s public financing capacity
Borrowing history
Bonding capacity
Degree of fiscal power and authority
Tax base

76. Open Space and the Realms

77. What Future?

78. Conclusions

79. General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications
The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley
The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips
Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation, Environmental Pres. and Economic Development
Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs Some Measure of Autonomy
But Realms also Need More Effective Integration and Coordination

80. Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications
Core Realms
Infill and Redevelopment
Favored Quarter Realms
Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing
Maturing Suburbs Realms
Create Mixed Use Centers
Emerging Exurban Realms
Open Space Preservation

81. Next Steps
June 2006 – Rollout of Key Findings Including Projections for Population, Employment, Housing, and Commercial Construction in a Joint ASU-VT Press Conference
Fall 2006 – Morrison Institute Publishes Sun Corridor Final Report