1. MSP: Outcomes of the Delta / Northwest Merger
Daniel G. Fry
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
December, 2013

2. Delta Air Lines / Northwest Airlines Merger, 2008-2010
Announced in April of 2008
Delta Air Lines acquired Northwest Airlines in October of 2008
Integration of airlines complete in January of 2010

3. Northwest Airlines at MSP
1926: Northwest Airlines purchases only hangar at site of future MSP.
1929: Northwest Airlines operates first closed cabin passenger service.
1948: Northwest Airlines begin international service.
1967: 4.1 million passengers flew through MSP, mostly on Northwest Airlines.
2007: 33 million passengers flew through MSP, 80% on Northwest Airlines.

4. MSP’s Economic Impact
MSP is estimated to contribute $10.1 billion to the local economy
$5.7 billion in direct operations
$2.16 billion in indirect impacts
$2.26 billion in induced impacts
MSP supports 76,340 jobs
19,800 directly
13,400 indirectly
17,100 induced
1,540 from capital improvements
(Delta Air Lines and affiliates employ about 13,000)
Data from Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Economic Impact Study, InterVISTAS Consulting LLC.

5. Focus: How Does MSP Fare?
Delta Air Service at MSP
MSP in the Delta Network
Delta’s Long Term Plans at MSP
Changes in Competition at MSP
Future Growth at MSP
MAC Response

6. Non-Stop Connections:
2004
2009
From 2004, before the merger, to 2013, virtually no change has been made to the route structure on Delta Air Lines from MSP.
2013
Data from T100 via Diio Mi

7. Fleet Changes:
Departing Seats
Data from T100 via Diio Mi

8. Onboard Departing Passengers:
Prior to the merger, Northwest Airlines went into Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection in 2005 and began restructuring and withdrawing service and 2008 saw global recession and high fuel prices. However, post-merger, the number of passengers flying through MSP on Delta Air Lines has stabilized.
Data from T100 via Diio Mi

9. MSP in the Delta Network:
When MSP is compared to other hubs and focus cities in the Delta network, it appears to be about center for gains and losses. For number of non-stop connections, MSP lost less between 2009 and 2012 then ATL.
Data from T100 via Diio Mi

10. MSP in the Delta Network:
MSP is the second largest hub in the system, and occupies an entirely different class of hub than MEM and CVG, two airports that have lost much of their service.
Data from T100 via Diio Mi

11. Airfares:
MSP has airfares significantly higher than other Delta hubs, making it a lucrative market.
Data from DB1B

12. Delta’s Long Term Plans:
More efficient hub, with right-sized fleet.
Second(ary) hub for Delta Air Lines
MSP has good cost structure.
MSP is lucrative per passenger with high Delta market share.
Delta Air Lines is expected to maintain a large, stable hub.

13. Market Shares at MSP:
From 2004 to 2013, the Delta / Northwest market share of MSP as been very large, although it has declined slightly over the past 8 years.
Data from T100 via Diio Mi

14. Number of Departing PAX:
Number of onboard departures is up post- merger.
Data from T100 via Diio Mi

15. Number of Departing PAX:+ +
Double digit growth has been typical in recent years for “T2” airlines.
Data from T100 via Diio Mi

16. Possible Future Growth:
Delta Air Lines
Expanded service to Europe, Asia, and Latin America
Southwest Airlines
Resume expanding its presence?
Alaska Airlines
Expand in response to Delta in Seattle?
Icelandair
Better marketing for European service?
Spirit Airlines
Continue to expand?
JetBlue
Enter the market, after significant discussion?
Virgin America (?)

17. MAC Response
The MAC has a very flexible master plan extending to 2030 with many alternatives.
Long Term Comprehensive Plan

18. Sources:
Delta Air Lines. Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Retrieved from Delta Air Lines website: Retrieved December, 2013.
InterVISTAS Consulting LLC. Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Economic Impact Study. Retrieved from Minneapolis – St. Paul International Airport website: Study-Estimates-Minneapolis-St-Paul-Internatio.aspx. Retrieved December, 2013.
Metropolitan Airports Commission. Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Final Long Term Comprehensive Plan. Retrieved from Minneapolis – St. Paul International Airport website: ea/ltcp_final_document.aspx. Retrieved December, 2013.
Metropolitan Airports Commission. Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Statistics. Retrieved from Minneapolis – St. Paul International Airport website: Retrieved December, 2013.
Metropolitan Airports Commission. MSP 2010: Building a Better Airport. Retrieved from Minneapolis – St. Paul International Airport website: Retrieved December, 2013.
Metropolitan Airports Commission. MSP Airport Improvements. Retrieved from Minneapolis – St. Paul International Airport website: Retrieved December, 2013.
Metropolitan Airports Commission. MSP History. Retrieved from Minneapolis – St. Paul International Airport website: Retrieved December, 2013.
Metropolitan Airports Commission. The Metropolitan Airports Commission. Retrieved from Metropolitan Airports Commission website: Retrieved December, 2013.
Mouawad, J. (2013, December 6). “Delta-Northwest Merger’s Long and Complex Path” New York Times. Retrieved from New York Times website: Retrieved in December, 2013.
Mutzabaugh, B. (2013, December 6). “The 'frenemy' strikes back: Alaska Air takes on Delta.” USA Today. Retrieved from USA Today website: Retrieved in December, 2013.
U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Air Transportation: Air Carrier Statistics Database (T-100). Accessed via Diio Mi in November, 2013.
U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Air Transportation: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Retrieved from in December, 2013.