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Medium Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) –

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Presentation on theme: "Medium Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) –"— Presentation transcript:

1 Medium Range Forecasting at the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) –
An Ensemble Effort in Big Data Tony Fracasso NROW XVII Nov. 2-3, 2016 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

2 Outline (?) What is a good forecast?
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… How to Succeed in Business Forecasting Without Really Trying Do no harm 1 – The first 60 minutes of my day can set the “forecast mood” – some examples of good vs bad forecasts 2 – When can automation help us? 3 – When does the forecaster need to adjust a starting point 4 – Rate of increase in data outpaces our ability to verify it – which is how we learn to adjust the forecast I Can’t Drive 55 What is a good forecast? Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

3 Sixty Minutes to Success
Top-down approach 500 hPa  Surface (others as warranted) Hemispheric  North American  CONUS  Regional  ~WFO  “Points” Guidance trends (ensembles and deterministic) Verification Anomalies / Impacts Blend! “Making a forecast” at WPC Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

4 A “Good” 7-Day Forecast (14 Oct 2016)
The best of times 3.83°F MAE Avg ~ 5.0°F Max T Error (°F) Dept. from Avg. (°F) WPC Forecast Analysis Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

5 A “Bad” 7-Day Forecast (11 Oct 2016)
The worst of times 6.99°F MAE Avg ~ 5.0°F Max T Error (°F) Dept. from Avg. (°F) WPC Forecast Analysis Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

6 A “Bad” 7-Day Forecast (11 Oct 2016)
Maximum temperature errors from a few “blendable” options. Autoblend ECMWF ENS GEFS NAEFS ECMWF GFS Canadian Obs dept. Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

7 Outside the Ensemble Envelope (Min)
168-h 500 hPa heights (00/12Z GEFS): 1 May – 25 Oct 2016 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

8 Outside the Ensemble Envelope (Max)
168-h 500 hPa heights (00/12Z GEFS): 1 May – 25 Oct 2016 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

9 180hr forecast, valid 12Z 1 Oct 2016 (570dm)
Ensemble Bifurcation – A Forecaster’s (Worst) Nightmare 29 Sept – 4 Oct 2016 Canadian GFS ECMWF 180hr forecast, valid 12Z 1 Oct 2016 (570dm) Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

10 Multi-center Ensemble Spread Min/Max Temperatures Cincinnati, OH
GFS OBS (67°F) ECMWF N Day 7 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

11 20% 00Z ECMWF (bias-corrected) 30% 00Z ECENS Mean (bias-corrected)
WPC Autoblend: 20% 00Z ECMWF (bias-corrected) 30% 00Z ECENS Mean (bias-corrected) 10% 06Z GFS (bias-corrected) 10% 06Z GEFS Mean (bias-corrected) 20% 00Z NAEFS 10% 00Z Gridded MOS Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

12 Mean Absolute Error – Day 7 Max T
1 Jan – 14 Oct 2016 (CONUS) Relatively few opportunities to show significant large-scale improvement. Mean Absolute Error (°F) Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

13 MAE Difference (WPC minus Autoblend) - Day 7 Max T
1 Jan – 14 Oct 2016 (CONUS) Degrading Autoblend MAE Difference (°F) Improving Autoblend Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

14 ‘Polar Vortex’ Event wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC
Image adapted from talk-politics.livejournal.com

15 Relative Placement Frequency
1 Jan – 14 Oct 2016 WPC Autoblend Percent Occurrence NBM Previous WPC Rank (1st – 22nd) Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

16 What is a good forecast? Least amount of overall error?
Getting the extremes right? Best shows the probabilities? Produces the best public response? Gives the most lead time? Incremental changes toward “the right answer”? Other? Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

17 9 days prior 5 days prior 87°F wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Facebook.com/NWSWPC/

18 ECMWF Ensemble Trend (ALB)
Jan 2016 Northeast Snow Storm 0.0 in. Decreasing lead time  Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

19 Summary Ensembles are great, but don’t have all the answers.
A blended, bias-corrected dataset can show comparable skill to the human forecaster (Day 7 maximum temperature). “Wins” vs a skillful blend are likely local/regional rather than CONUS-wide. Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

20 Questions?? Thanks! Anthony.Fracasso@noaa.gov wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

21 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

22 Extra Slides Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

23 90-day avg 14 Oct 2016 11 Oct 2016 wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

24 Where do ensembles fail below the min?
GEFS: 1 Jan – 30 Apr2016 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

25 Mean Absolute Error – Day 7 Max T
1 Jan – 14 Oct 2016 Mean Absolute Error (°F) Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

26 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

27 National Blend Forecast Records from 5/12/16
Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

28 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

29 180 hr outside the GEFS (and ECENS) envelope - valid 12Z 11 Oct 2016
Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

30 Ensemble Forecast Min/Max Temp (BIS)
OBS (42°F) N Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

31 Spag verif 12Z Dec 26 2012 wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Facebook.com/NWSWPC/

32 Forecasting Flow Chart
High ensemble spread Low ensemble spread Zonal Flow Defined Waves Blocked Flow Low confidence Use ensemble means High confidence Average confidence Low confidence Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

33 Forecasting Flow Chart
High ensemble spread Low ensemble spread Zonal Flow Defined Waves Blocked Flow Low confidence Go in the middle Lean toward one side of the spread High confidence Average confidence Low confidence Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

34 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

35 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

36 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

37 Facebook.com/NWSWPC/ @NWSWPC wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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