1. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: THE NATURE OF THE BEAST
Rob Wolcott
Bret O. Bergst
World Resources Institute

2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Some of the infrared radiation
passes through the atmosphere,
and some is absorbed and
re-emitted in all
directions by
greenhouse gas
molecules. The
effect of this
is to warm
the Earth’s
surface and
the lower
atmosphere.
Some solar radiation
is reflected by the
Earth and the
atmosphere
Solar
radiation
passes
through
the clear
Most radiation is absorbed by the
Earth’s surface and warms it
Infrared radiation is emitted
from the Earth’s Surface
The
Greenhouse Effect
This slide illustrates the Greenhouse Effect.

3. HUMAN ACTIVITIES HAVE CHANGED THE COMPOSITION OF THE ATMOSPHERE SINCE THE PRE- INDUSTRIAL ERA
IPCC, 2001

4. CARBON DIOXIDE HAS TWO MAIN SOURCES
80 – 85% produced by recent fossil fuel use
15 – 20% results from changes in land use

5. PROJECTED CONCENTRATIONS OF CO2 DURING THE 21ST CENTURY ARE TWO TO FOUR TIMES THE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVEL
IPCC, 2001

8. CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE, SEA LEVEL AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE VARYING IMPACTS
The change in sea level and temperature will have a number of biological and socioeconomic effects.
IPCC, 2001

9. PROJECTED TEMPERATURES DURING THE 21ST CENTURY ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN AT ANY TIME DURING THE LAST 1000 YEARS
IPCC, 2001

11. LAND AREAS ARE PROJECTED TO WARM MORE THAN THE OCEANS WITH THE GREATEST WARMING AT HIGH LATITUDES
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in = 3.1oC

12. EXAMPLES OF VULNERABLE ECOSYSTEMS
Polar
Reduced sea ice
Altered distribution of species
Mainland Asia
Poleward movement of southern boundary of permafrost zones
Small Island States
Threats to coral reefs, coastal ecosystems
Threats to reef fish/fisheries
North America
Prairie wetlands, alpine tundra, cold water ecosystems
ASIA
Climate change increases threats to biodiversity from land-use/land-cover change, population pressure
Risk to ecological security from sea level rise (mangroves and coral reefs)
Poleward movement of southern boundary of permafrost zones
AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND
Species with restricted climatic niches and unable to migrate may become endangered or extinct
Freshwater wetlands in coastal zones are vulnerable
Coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest and inland Australia, Australian alpine systems are vulnerable
New Zealand ecosystems are vulnerable to accelerated invasion by weeds
North America
Unique natural ecosystems (prairie wetlands, alpine tundra, cold water ecosystems) will be at risk
Sea level rise would result in enhanced coastal erosion, coastal flooding, loss of coastal wetlands, increased risk from storm surges
Polar
Ecosystems are highly vulnerable with low adaptive capacity
Decreased extent and thickness of sea ice, permafrost thawing, coastal erosion, changes in ice sheets and ice shelves, altered distribution of species in polar regions
Latin America
Increase in rate of biodiversity loss
Africa
Exacerbation of desertification resulting in extinctions of plant and animal species
Australia/New Zealand
Coastal wetlands, coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats, alpine systems are vulnerable
(Source: IPCC [2001])

13. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE CHANGING

14. Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990
SOME AREAS ARE PROJECTED TO BECOME WETTER, OTHERS DRIER WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE PROJECTED
Annual mean precipitation change: to 2100 Relative to 1990

15. INITIALLY INCREASED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN SOME MID-LATITUDE REGIONS & REDUCTION IN THE TROPICS AND SUB-TROPICS EVEN WITH WARMING OF A FEW DEGREES
2020s
2050s
2080s
IPCC, 2001

16. INCREASED WATER AVAILABILITY IN SOME WATER-SCARCE REGIONS, AND DECREASED WATER AVAILABILITY IN MANY WATER SCARCE REGIONS
IPCC, 2001

17. SEA LEVELS HAVE RISEN

18. Sea Level change is actually cased by a combination of factors.
IPCC, 2002

19. MEAN SEA LEVEL IS PROJECTED TO RISE. 09 TO
MEAN SEA LEVEL IS PROJECTED TO RISE .09 TO .88M BY 2100 WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
Estimates of Sea Level Change project a rise of .09 to .88m by There are significant variations depending on the type of area.

20. SEA LEVEL RISE AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT LOW-LYING DELTAIC AREAS
This slide from UNEP/Grid shows the devastating overall effects of sea level rise on Bangladesh. The effects on this type of area would be enhanced because of the coastline characteristics.

21. CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ARE ALSO INTER-LINKED
IPCC, 2002