1. Climate Change
Learner Resource Projected Impacts of Climate Change on IPCC World Regions

2. Task 13: Projected Impacts of Climate Change on IPCC World Regions
Task Two
Split the class into eight groups or approach as a class activity.
Provide the groups with the slide about the impacts of climate change, as well as the section of the table that relates to their named global location (Europe, North America, Polar Regions etc.)
Students need to summarise what the key risks are in their information, what is causing these key risks and the speed of onset.
This information can then be shared with the class through Q & A, discussion or presentations.
There are links at the end of the presentation to extra reading which can be accessed on iPads, tablets, phones or desktop PC’s to stretch and challenge as appropriate.
Groups:
Europe
North America
South and Central America
Africa
Asia
Australasia
Polar Regions
Small Island States

3. The Ocean – how to interpret the table of information
How to read the key risk / impact boxes.
What is the probability of these risks occurring over the short, medium and long term.
This shows the key risks relating to the continent or location.
This shows how we can reduce the risk or issue. Ideas include management, adaptation and mitigation.
Refer to key on previous slide, the main causal factors for the increase of these risks.

4. Europe
Everything. Nearly all European regions are expected to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change, and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors. Europe can expect retreating glaciers, longer growing seasons, shift of species ranges, and health impacts due to a heatwave of unprecedented magnitude and frequency as the climate changes.
Natural resources. Climate change is expected to magnify regional differences in Europe’s natural resources and assets. Negative impacts will include increased risk of inland flash floods, and more frequent coastal flooding and increased erosion (due to storminess and sea-level rise).
Ecology. The great majority of organisms and ecosystems will have difficulty adapting to climate change. Mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reduced snow cover and winter tourism, and extensive species losses (in some areas up to 60% under high emission scenarios by 2080).
Southern Europe. Climate change is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in a region already vulnerable to climate variability, and to reduce water availability, hydropower potential, summer tourism and, in general, crop productivity. It is also projected to increase health risks due to heat-waves, and the frequency of wildfires.
Central and Eastern Europe. Summer rain is projected to decrease, causing higher water stress. Health risks due to heatwaves are expected to increase. Forest productivity is expected to drop and the frequency of peatland fires to rise.
Northern Europe. Climate change is initially projected to bring mixed effects. Benefits include less demand for heating, higher crop yields and increased forest growth. However, as climate change continues, its negative impacts (including more frequent winter floods, endangered ecosystems and increasing ground instability) are likely to outweigh its benefits.

5. Europe

6. North America
Freshwater. Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding, and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over- allocated water resources.
Food. Moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. Major challenges are projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or which depend on highly utilised water resources.
Human health. Cities that currently experience heatwaves are expected to be further challenged by an increased number, intensity and duration of heatwaves during the course of the century, with potential for adverse health impacts. Elderly populations are most at risk.
Forests. Disturbances from pests, diseases and fire are projected to have increasing impacts on forests, with an extended period of high fire risk and large increases in area burned.
Coastal populations. Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal areas increase vulnerability to climate variability and future climate change, with losses projected to increase if the intensity of tropical storms increases.

7. North America

8. South and Central America
Freshwater. Changes in rainfall patterns and the disappearance of glaciers are expected to significantly affect water availability for drinking and cooking, agriculture and energy generation.
Food. In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to salinisation and desertification of agricultural land. Productivity of some important crops is projected to decrease. Livestock productivity is expected to decline. These have clear implications for food security. In temperate zones soybean yields are projected to increase.
Ecology and biodiversity. By mid-century, increases in temperature and associated decreases in soil water are projected to lead to gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. Semi-arid vegetation will tend to be replaced by arid-land vegetation. There is a risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America.
Marine life and fisheries. Sea-level rise is projected to cause increased risk of flooding in low-lying areas. Increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change are projected to have adverse effects on Mesoamerican coral reefs, and cause shifts in the location of south-east Pacific fish stocks.

9. South and Central America

10. Africa
Freshwater. By 2020, scientists predict that 90 million to 220 million people would be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. This magnifies water woes in a region already dealing with water-related problems.
Food. Yields from rain-fed agriculture could drop by up to half by Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely affected by climate variability and change. The area of land suitable for agriculture, length of growing seasons and yield potential are expected to shrink-- particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas. Food security would be adversely affected, and malnutrition exacerbated.
Human health. Scientists predict a 5-7% potential increase in malaria distribution by the end of the century. Previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could also experience malaria starting from around mid-century, potentially exposing communities with little or no immunity to a debilitating illness.
Coastal populations. Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5-10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2015, three coastal megacities of at least 8 million inhabitants will be located in Africa. The projected rise in sea level will have significant impacts on these because of the concentration of poor populations in potentially hazardous areas that may be especially vulnerable to such changes.

11. Africa

12. Asia
Freshwater. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease due to climate change. By 2050, one billion people are expected to be adversely affected by this decline as a growing population and higher standards of living push up the pressure on freshwater resources. 
Food. Crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and South-East Asia, while they could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by mid-century. The net effect, along with rapid population growth and urbanization, keeps the risk of hunger very high in some developing countries in Asia.
Human health. Morbidity and mortality from diarrhoeal disease primarily due to floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.
Mountains and rivers. In the next 20 to 30 years, glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and to affect water resources. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. This has clear implications for populations (and agriculture) downstream for whom glacial melt is their primary water supply. In some parts of Russia, climate change could significantly alter the variability of river runoff such that extremely low runoff events may occur much more frequently in the crop growing regions of the south west.
Coastal populations. Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated megadelta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some megadeltas, flooding from the rivers as well.

13. Asia

14. Australasia
Food. By 2030, production from agriculture and forestry is projected to drop over much of southern and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire. However,  western and southern New Zealand and areas close to major rivers may expect initial benefits due to a longer growing season, less frost and increased rainfall.
Ecology and biodiversity. By as early as 2020, the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland Wet Tropics and other ecologically rich sites are projected to face significant loss of biodiversity. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, south-west Australia, sub- Antarctic islands and the alpine areas of both Australia and New Zealand. These natural systems have limited adaptive capacity.
Coastal populations. Over 80% of the Australian population lives in the coastal zone. About 711,000 addresses are within 3 km of the coast and less than 6m above sea level, potentially at risk from long-term sea-level rise and large storm surges. By 2050, continued coastal development will expose an increasing number of Australians to the combination of expected sea-level rise, and increased severity and frequency of storms and flooding.
Extreme weather events. In northern Australia, tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense. Changes in patters of extreme events such as these are difficult to adapt to.

15. Australasia

16. Polar Regions (Artic and Antarctic)
Geophysical impacts. In the Polar Regions, the main projected effects are reductions in thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms including migratory birds, mammals and higher predators. In the Arctic, additional impacts include reductions in the extent of sea ice and permafrost, increased coastal erosion, and an increase in the depth of permafrost seasonal thawing.
Way of life. For human communities in the Arctic, impacts, particularly those resulting from changing snow and ice conditions, are projected to be mixed. Detrimental impacts would include those on infrastructure and traditional indigenous ways of life. Beneficial impacts would include reduced heating costs and more navigable northern sea routes.
Ecosystems. In both polar regions, specific ecosystems and habitats are projected to be vulnerable, as climatic barriers to species invasions are lowered.

17. Polar Regions (Artic and Antarctic)

18. Small Island States
Freshwater. Climate change is projected by mid-century to reduce water resources in many small islands, e.g., in the Caribbean and Pacific, to the point where they become insufficient to meet demand during low-rainfall periods.
Food and income. Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching, is expected to affect local resources, e.g., fisheries, and reduce the value of these destinations for tourism.
Geophysical. Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher latitudes, have characteristics which make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise and extreme events.
Way of life. Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island communities.
Agriculture and health. With higher temperatures, increased invasion by non-native species is expected to occur, particularly on mid- and high-latitude islands.

19. Small Island States

20. Additional information
Supplementary information on climate change impacts - Pages 30-32: Climate change impacts map: Additional information to support the Climate Change impacts map: MetLink Climate Change Updates: Climate Action Reserve - Environmental Cartoons by Joel Pett:
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OCR acknowledges the use of the following content: Globe map: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability – Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.;
Date/Tables - Figure SPM.2 (A), IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability – Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B, V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
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