1. Pennsylvania Politics 2017: Uncertain Times in a New Political Era
2017 PAMIC Conference
Christopher P. Borick
Muhlenberg College

2. Pennsylvania Politics in the Wake of the 2016 Election
President Trump’s victory here last fall provided a signal of renewed Republican strength in the state.
His fairly poor job approval numbers and the historical struggles of the President’s party in elections following their victories have raised concerns about Republican fortunes in the state in 2017 and 2018

3. So Let’s Look Ahead at Upcoming Elections in the State
2017 – Statewide Judicial Elections with contests at Supreme Court, Superior Court and Commonwealth Court Levels.
2018 – Major Statewide Elections for Governor, United States Senate and 18 House Races.

4. 2017 in PA
The November 2017 Statewide Elections mark the first general elections in PA after the election of President Trump.
Races in year after a presidential election are usually viewed as a test of the president’s standing.
Judicial races will be the key races on the ballot.

5. Supreme Court
Justice Sallie Mundy is a 2016 appointee who filed to stand in the election in order to serve for a full term. She is being challenged by Judge Dwayne D. Woodruff.
Two Retention Races: Thomas Saylor (R) and Debra Todd (D).
Only 1 justice not retained (2005)

6. Supreme Court Dems hold 5-2 Advantage
If retention elections hold, Mundy needs to win to keep the current balance.
If she loses Democrats build upon major gains in 2015 ( 3 seat pick up)
Major effect on policy matters.

7. Superior Court 4 open seats Currently 8R, 6D, 1 vacant
Of open 2 are held by D and 1 By R
Results can go from 8-7 Democratic Advantage to Republican Advantage
Overall Political conditions (national mood, turnout) to have large effect in low information race.

8. Commonwealth Court 2 open seats Republicans hold 6-3 Advantage
2 open seats held by Democrats
Results can go from 8-1 to 6-3 Republican Advantage
Overall political conditions (national mood, turnout) to have large effect in low information race.

9. 2018 Looms! Governor Election, Senate Election, 18 House Races
Democrats trying to hold Governor and Senate seats.
Republicans trying to maintain or expand 13-5 advantage in House Seats.

10. Governor’s Race Governor Wolf seeks second term.
Until Governor Corbett every governor seeking reelection was successful.
Was Corbett’s failure the new normal or was he an outlier?
2018 will provide evidence.

11. The Race in 2018 Governor Wolf’s standing is good but not great.
Wolf’s job approval numbers are in the mid to high 40s, well above Corbett and near Rendell at this point of their respective first terms.
Budget struggles weigh on his public standing.
Also an “enthusiasm gap” may hinder is bid for a second term.

12. Republican Challengers
State Senator Scott Wagner, businessman Paul Mango and potentially House Speaker Mike Turzai appear to be major players in the GOP field.
All have some strong attributes but also substantial liabilities.
In past midterms after new president has come in opposite party won, Corbett 2010), Rendell (2002), Ridge (1994), but all were open seats.

13. Senate Race Senator Bob Casey Jr. seeking 3rd term.
Easily won in 2006 and 2012.
Polling on job performance is moderate but in line with where it was in 2011.
Republican field has many entries but no high profile candidates. Waiting on bigger names like Barletta, Kelly, Marino and Corman to make call.
Casey has emerged as strongly anti-Trump. If strong Trump supporters like Marino and Barletta emerge could be seen as key referendum on Trump.

14. House Races Republicans hold 13-5 advantage.
Existence of “safe districts” limits the number of competitive races.
Only 5 of 18 are identified as competitive with 4 being Republican and 1 Democrat.
First term president’s party’s usually suffer in midterm election but not a “sure thing.”

15. President’s Party in Midterms

16. Conclusion
After turbulent and historic 2016 election in PA upcoming elections will have lower profile but considerable intrigue.
Will Pennsylvania’s flip to the Republicans in 2016 carry over into 2017 and 2018?
Or will President Trump’s struggles reinvigorate the Democrat’s chances?
Stay tuned!