1. The Arab Spring?

2. Began January 2011 in Tunisia Mohamed Bouazizi
Corruption rankings (Transparency International)
Tunisia 73: Morocco 80; Algeria and Egypt 112 (tied); Yemen 164; Libya 168;
Age distribution
Egypt 33% younger than 14 years, Syria 35 % compare US 20%; Germany 13%)
Lack of democratic input (Long standing regimes)

3. Outcomes
Tunisia: President Ben Ali overthrown, new constitution, government elected
Egypt: Mubarak ousted, Morsey elected and overthrown, al Sisi elected
Libya: Gaddafi killed, Two rival governments claim power, continuing conflict
Yemen: Abdullah Saleh ousted, continued civil violence

5. Role of religious actors One Arab Spring? key differences
The diversity in the MENA region
key differences
Monarchical dynasties (Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Morocco)
Homogeneity (Egypt) vs. diverse identities (religious, linguistic, ethnic, tribal, clan)
Natural resources (oil haves and have nots)
Role of the military
Secular nature of government (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya) and religious standing (Saudi Arabia)

6. Role of Social Media Facebook and Twitter Revolutions
Bypass government media censorship
Organize spontaneously and without detection

7. Tunisia Unemployment, Corruption, inflation, Ben Ali 23 years in power
Tunisia: Ennahda party won 37% of popuar vote, 89 of 217 seats
"We do not want a theocracy.” “We are not an Islamist party, we are an Islamic party.”

8. Egypt: Full Circle Revolution
Muslim Brotherhood 77 of 156 parliamentary seats, Other Salafists 33 of 156 seats
No presidential candidate received more than 25% of vote
Mosey defeats Ahmed Shafik by 3.5%
The State and religion
Failure of inclusion, Significant reserve powers not checked by the judiciary
Morsey deposed, al Sisi elected president, MB Outlawed
Return to Status Quo?

9. The Arab Winter

10. Yemen Yemen Civil War Ali Abdullah Saleh, 33 years in power
Mansour Hadi takes power after GCC brokered deal
2014 Federalisation agreement
Houthis Shias, Southern rebels, al-Qaeda (AQAP, Ansar al Sharia)
Saudi Intervention

12. Libya
theoretically governed by a parliament House of Representatives in Tobruk elected 2014
parliament's control severely limited by the internal conflict
Tripoli government

13. Syria Rise of Islamic State Coalition intervention Kurdish resistance
Russian intervention

14. Supported by Russia and Iran
Belligerents
Supported by Russia and Iran
Syrian Government
Hezbollah
Opposition
Free Syrian Army
Islamic Front
Al Nusra
Islamic State (ISIS)
Kurds
Peshmerga
PKK
Combined Joint Task Force
U.S., Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Netherlands UK
Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE

15. What Went Wrong? Diverse causation
Democratic Deficit, shared governance
Political Socialization, Patterns of authoritarianism
Removal of power structures unleashes tensions: Sunni/ Shi’ite, Islamist/ Secularist, Political Class conflict

16. International Community
Middle East Cold War, Iran vs Saudi Arabia
Salafi Jihadists, al-Qaeda, ISIS
Intervention by powerful states