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Global Market Environment
GLOBAL TRANSACTION VOLUME Q1 1Q 2017 Global Capital Markets trading volume fell 3.7% year-over- year. While year-over-year deal volume fell in the Americas and EMEA, APAC sales volume grew 23% over Q Annual Totals (in $Billions) $1,297.5 $609.8 $446.1 $739.5 $902.9 $984.2 $1,309.4 $1,327.5 $1,428.3 $1,366.9 $283.6 Source: RCA, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Based on closed deals $5M+. Totals may not add due to rounding. 1
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The Global Capital Markets
Secondary US Markets are Hitting Foreign Investor Radar Screens AFIRE 2017 FOREIGN INVESTMENT SURVEY: TOP 15 INVESTMENT CITIES CITY RANKING TREND 2016 RANK 2015 RANK 2014 RANK 2013 RANK New York 1 2 Berlin 4 7 11 London 3 Los Angeles 10 San Francisco 5 Munich 6 12 8 Paris 14 9 Boston 27 Sydney Madrid Singapore 15 Dallas 23 26 Frankfurt 13 17 Stockholm Seattle Washington DC The U.S. is the top global investment market for both stability and expected returns according to AFIRE’s (Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate) 2017 survey. The survey was conducted in the middle of the fourth quarter of 2016. Source: AFIRE, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets
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The Capital Markets 2017 Q1 Top 20 Markets in $Millions
RANKINGS 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1 Market 2017Q1 Sales Volume ($M) YOY % Change Cap Rate Range* 3 2 1 Los Angeles $4,540.6 -22% % Manhattan $3,784.9 -60% % 13 Boston $3,362.3 -34% % 4 7 Dallas $3,332.9 10% % 6 9 5 San Francisco $3,240.2 21% % 8 Atlanta $2,565.1 -8% % Chicago $2,539.1 -40% % 20 11 12 No NJ $2,407.1 7% % 10 NYC Boroughs $2,113.2 -21% % 17 Seattle $2,112.5 -42% % 29 32 21 Charlotte $1,993.7 36% % Houston $1,940.5 5% % 19 25 San Jose $1,916.4 51% 14 Denver $1,682.4 -61% % 24 16 15 DC VA burbs $1,627.5 -17% Phoenix $1,619.1 -7% % DC $1,586.4 49% % 23 34 18 Orange Co $1,513.6 78% Miami/Dade Co $1,411.6 -32% % 42 22 Orlando $1,188.9 22% US sales volume totaled $86.3 billion in Q , 20% lower than Q Although deal volume fell, it’s still in line with healthy levels, similar to Q With $4.5 billion in sales volume across all property types in Q1, the Los Angeles market moved into the number 1 spot usually reserved for Manhattan. Manhattan slipped to number 2 as deal activity fell 60% year-over-year. Among the top 5 markets, Dallas and San Francisco experienced healthy double digit growth. Although Manhattan sales volume slipped, its suburbs of No NJ and the Boroughs climbed into the top 10 as investors continue to chase yield opportunities. The share of foreign investment in the top 20 markets totaled 17%. Foreign investors continue to target the major core markets for investment. Foreign investment across all property types in Manhattan totaled 41% of closed transactions. *CBD Class A office, low-high cap rate range. Does not include JV activity. Source: RCA, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets
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Cross-border Flows Driving Investment Activity
Europe Middle East & Africa China & Hong Kong Emerging Asia Mature Asia Canada Other Americas Q1 (Volume in Billions) UNITED STATES NEW YORK $13.7B Cross Border 13% of Total Volume $1.6B Cross Border 41% of Total Volume $63.6B Cross Border 15% of Total Volume $15.9B Cross Border 38% of Total Volume $90.5B Cross Border 18% of Total Volume $25.9B Cross Border 41% of Total Volume $41.4B Cross Border 10% of Total Volume $8.8B Cross Border 19% of Total Volume
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Sources of Cross Border Global RE Capital
Top Sources of Cross Border Flows In $billions Country of Origin 2017Q1 Rank 2017 Q1 2016 Rank 2016 2015 Rank 2015 Hong Kong 1 $17 $59 3 $43 United States 2 $15 $51 $71 China $12 $38 6 $20 Canada 4 $7 $23 $46 United Kingdom 5 $21 Singapore $6 $28 Germany 7 $5 $18 France 8 $3 $13 South Korea 9 $11 Other $16 $74 $91 Top Destinations of Cross Border Capital In $billions Market 2017Q1 2016 2015 London $7.0 $18 $40 Manhattan $5.0 $15 $26 Hong Kong $3.0 $2 Singapore $2.4 $6 Madrid $4 Frankfurt $2.0 Paris $1.9 $8 $11 Shanghai $7 $9 Amsterdam Other $65 $238 $252 5
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CBD Office Market Overview - Momentum
Top CBD Office Investment Markets NATIONAL VACANCY RATES ACROSS CBD MARKETS Projects under construction in CBD markets totaled 2.9% of total inventory, a significant increase over a year ago. CBD vacancy rate remained relatively flat quarter-over-quarter. Construction levels are elevated in tech- driven markets of Austin, Brooklyn, and San Francisco. The 7.7% under construction in San Francisco includes the 1.4 MSF Salesforce Tower, due for completion in 2017 Q2. National CBD rents continued to grow, increasing 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. With increased construction deliveries, national occupancy slipped 40 bps year-over-year. Following the national trend, occupancy fell in most of the major gateway markets, however, rents continued to increase. YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE IN ASKING RENT AND VACANCY RATE 2017Q1 2016Q1 Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets
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Office Capital Markets Overview
AVERAGE WEIGHTED CAPITALIZATION RATE1 VS. NCREIF, QUARTERLY Q1 Cap rates remain bifurcated between top tier markets and “other” CBDs. Midtown Manhattan Class A assets are trading at average cap rates of 3.9%. Investors remain focused on the quality of both product and rent roll, and prefer primary markets and assets although interest in higher yielding secondary markets has increased. Source: RCA, NCREIF, Moody’s Analytics, Cushman & Wakefield Capital Markets 1. Does not include partial interest sales 7
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This Expansion Still Has Legs
Trump and the Economy: Stronger Growth Likely Source: BLS, Cushman & Wakefield Research Source: Cushman & Wakefield The current expansion is 93 months old, the third longest in history. No excesses in sight. Likely to last several more years. Most businesses will benefit from stronger consumer and business spending growth 8
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