1. Future Directions and Capabilities of Simulators Jim Dieterich

2. Summary of some advantages of simulators relative to current UCERF methods
Integrated self-consistent framework for generating an earthquake rate model
Properly captures intrinsic relations between stress and fault slip in 3D systems and avoids the dubious use of point characterizations of spatially varying properties (stress, slip, time since last slip, clock reset)
Clustering is modeled deterministically and tied to constitutive parameters and evolving stress conditions
Framework for characterizing regional fluctuations of seismicity rates – interpretation of empirical model
Non-linear stressing from interactions with deep creeping zone and viscoelasticity in some models
Moment balancing issues are eliminated
No assumptions are made regarding characteristic earthquakes (pro or con)
Rupture jumps and branching occur spontaneously
Coupling factor and aseismic creep reduction of moment

3. Future Directions and Capabilities
Cascadia models (Eqs, creep, slow slip events)
Integration with deformation models
High-performance computing (all California faults at 100m?)
Integration with simulations of rupture dynamics and ground motions
Off-fault seismicity
Triggering by tides and earthquakes
SCEC4 special study areas

4. Modified from McCrory et al. (2006)

6. Number of elements BIG EVENTS Patchy slip Indistinct initiation
Indistinct end

7. Number of elements
Rapid Tremor Reversals (RTRs
Houston et al., submitted

8. Number of elements

10. Future Directions and Capabilities
Cascadia models (Eqs, creep, slow slip events)
Integration with deformation models
High-performance computing (all California faults at 100m?)
Integration with simulations of rupture dynamics and ground motions
Off-fault seismicity
Triggering by tides and earthquakes
SCEC4 special study areas

12. Future Directions and Capabilities
Cascadia models (Eqs, creep, slow slip events)
Integration with deformation models
High-performance computing (all California faults at 100m?)
Integration with simulations of rupture dynamics and ground motions
Off-fault seismicity
Triggering by tides and earthquakes
SCEC4 special study areas

13. Future Directions and Capabilities
Cascadia models (Eqs, creep, slow slip events)
Integration with deformation models
High-performance computing (all California faults at 100m?)
Integration with simulations of rupture dynamics and ground motions
Off-fault seismicity
Triggering by tides and earthquakes
SCEC4 special study areas

14. Future Directions and Capabilities
Cascadia models (Eqs, creep, slow slip events)
Integration with deformation models
High-performance computing (all California faults at 100m?)
Integration with simulations of rupture dynamics and ground motions
Off-fault seismicity
Triggering by tides and earthquakes
SCEC4 special study areas

15. Off-Fault Aftershock simulations
Landers Earthquake (1992, Mw = 7.3)
Off-fault earthquake rate ,
Aftershock rate following a
stress step DS
Dieterich, JGR (1994)
Dieterich, Cayol, Okubo, Nature, (2000)
Heterogeneous orientations of fault planes
Smith and Dieterich (in Prep)

16. Background seismicity and focal mechanisms on a population of planes

17. Future Directions and Capabilities
Cascadia models (Eqs, creep, slow slip events)
Integration with deformation models
High-performance computing (all California faults at 100m?)
Integration with simulations of rupture dynamics and ground motions
Off-fault seismicity
Triggering by tides and earthquakes
SCEC4 special study areas