1. Getting Prepared: Policy Implications for Transportation Planning
Alan Clark
MPO Director
Houston-Galveston Area Council

2. Climate Change Trends and Transportation Impacts
Relative sea level rise
Facility inundation, reduced bridge clearance
Storm activity
Service disruption, including loss of electric power
Storm surge
Destruction of structures, pavements and base material
Precipitation and runoff
Increased flooding, base and foundation failure
Temperature increase
Increased maintenance, early materials failure

3. Map of Study Area

4. Highways in Study Area

5. Freight Handling Ports

6. Freight Handling Ports

7. Combined Shipping from Louisiana

8. National Network – Class 1 Railroads

9. Relative Elevation

10. Highway at Risk – Sea Level 2 ft

11. Highway at Risk – Sea Level 4 ft

12. Hurricane Katrina Damage U.S Highway 90

13. Hurricane Katrina Damage U.S Highway 90

14. Highways at Risk from Storm Surge – 18ft

15. Rail Lines at Risk – 18 and 23ft

16. Port Facilities at Risk – 2 and 4ft

17. Port Facilities at Risk – 18 and 23ft

18. A2 Emission Scenerios

19. How to Integrate Climate Change and Transportation Planning
Understanding our Vulnerabilities
Operational Approaches
Need for system flexibility – planning for “wild cards”
Emergency management philosophy
Linking predictive tools to traveler information
“Design Standards” approach
Combining Climate Change with Growth and Development Scenarios
Can assess likelihood of what if scenarios
Can monitor change and refine scenarios

20. Barriers to Integrating Climate Change and Transportation Planning
Dealing with uncertainty
Point estimates versus ranges
Scenario planning versus “static” forecasts
Near term (50 yrs) versus long term (100 yrs)
Average rates of change versus the historical record

21. Transportation Planning and Increasing Climate Change Impacts

22. Degree of Risk

23. A Risk Assessment Approach to Transportation Decisions
Adaptation Response
Exposure
Vulnerability
Resilience
Protect
Accommodate
Retreat

24. Moving Toward Risk Management
Essential Equation:
Risk = Probability x Consequence

25. Questions We Have Can we determine probabilities?
What are the units of analysis? Replacement cost? Loss of Performance?
Project level?
Network level?
Paradigm (conceptual approach) vs. Algorithm (calculable method)?

26. How It Might Work (Federal Process)
Add in ‘long term’ analysis to existing 20-year process
Conduct system level assessment with the Long Range Plan
Assess “major” facilities in the project development process

27. Barriers to Integrating Climate Change and Transportation Planning
Defining climate change in transportation metrics
What kind
How much
How often
Where
When

28. Barriers to Integrating Climate Change and Transportation Planning
Incremental vs. non-incremental change
Incremental change suggests past experience is still a useful guide for current decisions
Incremental change permits greater time for adaptation
Incremental change requires less reinvention of existing processes

29. Barriers to Integrating Climate Change and Transportation Planning
Rapid change in Climate
Need for system flexibility – planning for “wild cards”
Adaptation versus replacement

30. How to Integrate Climate Change and Transportation Planning
Need for redundant systems and alternative travel modes
Understanding system flexibility
Understanding traveler response and flexibility
Need for reliable system information
Need for system choices

31. Getting Prepared: Policy Implications for Transportation Planning
Alan Clark
MPO Director
Houston-Galveston Area Council