1. Denominational and social class differences in infant and child mortality and vulnerability to economic stress in Western Hungary,
Levente Pakot
Hungarian Demographic Research Institute
Economics and Institutions in History. Workshop in economic history and development.
Faculty of Economics, University of Economics, Prague, 1-2 July 2016.

2. Objective of the paper
To study mortality at young ages as a valuable indicator of living standards
1) the development of mortality differentials across denominatinal and socioeconomic groups
2) to estimate responses to short-term variation in food prices
One indicator of living standards is the ability of individuals, households, and communities to overcome short-term economic stress, especially changes in the price of food (Bengtsson 2004)
Demographic responses, including increased mortality and decreased or delayed fertility, are another possible outcome of short-term stress, and have been the focus of a wave of comparative research on standards of living in the past (Bengtsson, Campbell, & Lee, 2004;Tsuya, Feng, Alter, & Lee, 2010, Lundh & Kurosu 2014).
We extend this research by examining demographic responses to short-term stress in a setting with a diverse rural economy, the Western Transdanubia (Hungary), in the 19th century.

3. Outline 1. Introduction 2. The area under study 3. Data and methods
4. Descriptive statistics
5. Multivariate analysis
6. Conclusion

4. Map of the area under study

5. Communities Bük Szakony Three villages that united in 1902
Heterogeneous in terms of religion (Roman Catholics and Lutherans)
Separate elementary schools maintained by the Lutheran and R. Catholic Ch. up until the end of WWII.
Modernization of the agriculture in the second half of the 19th c. (1865 railway, sugar factory)
Population increase due to immigration
Process of social differentiation and growing social inequalities
End of WWI. (1917-burning of the s.f.) the plant breeder part of the factory functioning until 1930
Two villages that united in 1922
Heterogenious in terms of religion (Roman Catholics and Lutherans)
Homogenous in terms of social structure: the dominant role of smallholders (farmers), before 1848 serfs (copyholders)
The dominant role of agriculture
Population stagnation
Religious differencies in population composition: declining number of the Lutherans over time

6. Population size and distribution by denomination in Bük and Szakony 1836–1941

7. Communities: social structure
Breadwinners by broad occupational groups
Breadwinners in agriculture
Source: Censuses

8. Data Family reconstitution database
Record linkage of baptism, marriage and death records from Lutheran, Calvinist and Roman Catholic parish registers ( ) and civil registers ( )
Individual records of census 1850 and 1857 (Bük)
Individual records of the electoral registers ( )
SES reconstructed from occupational informations of parish and electoral registers and censuses
HISCO coding scheme =>HISCLASS scheme

9. Food prices Source: Szőnyi 1935.
Time series of log rye prices in the marketplace of Budapest (metric centered/pengő)
Deviations from the trend in rye prices, 1820–1934
Source: Szőnyi 1935.

10. Methods Descriptive statistics
Infant and child mortality rates, by SES and denominatinal groups
Event History Analysis (Piecewise Constant Exponential) models separately for infant and child mortality focusing on the period between 1830–1939
Denominational group and social class differences
Control variables: sex of the child, observed birth order of the child, twin birth, period.
Event History Analysis (Piecewise Constant Exponential) models for short-term econimic stress and infant and child mortality focusing on the period between 1830–1914

11. Infant and child mortality rates in Bük and Szakony, 1830–1939
Infant mortality
Child mortality

12. Infant and child mortality rates by denominational group in Bük and Szakony, 1830–1939.
Infant mortality
Child mortality

13. Infant and child mortality rates by social class in Bük and Szakony, 1830–1939
Infant mortality
Child mortality

14. Hazard ratios (HR) of infant and child mortality, Bük and Szakony, 1830–1939.
Infant mortality
Child mortality HR
p value
Denominational group
Lutheran
(ref)
Jewish
0,75
0.433
1,31
0,602
Roman Catholic
0,95
0.341
1,13
0,108
Socioeconomic class
Middle class
Skilled
0,87
0,227
1,60
0,015
Farmer
1,06
0,557
1,55
0,016
Unskilled worker
1,07
0,507
1,72
0,003
Missing
1,02
0,951
2,83
0,001
Deaths
2115
906
Individuals
12307
10436
Time at risk (person-day)
Log-likelihood
-9927,4
-3369,8

15. Mortality response to short-term deviations in rye prices in Bük and Szakony, 1830–1914. Effects of the 10% change in rye price.
Infant mortality
Child mortality
Current rye price
1,09
1,22***
Deaths
1756
831
Individuals
10073
8511
Time at risk (person-day)
Log-likelihood
-8220,3
-3018,3

16. Conclusion Preliminatory and exploratory analysis
Emerging social class differentials around the end of the 19th century
No sign of denominational differences
Infant mortality shows no sensitivity to short term variations of food prices
Child mortality in contrast remained sensitive to price fluctuations. Current rye prices were positively and significantly associated with mortality.
Problems:
Potential sources of selection biases
Higher social classes are underrepresented in the sample
Need to deepen the analysis:
More refined statistical models (including other family level control variables, like mother’s age, place of birth etc.)
More work on occupational categories, to include information on land-onwership