1. Sales, employment and investment
Outlook for the retail, wholesale and motor vehicle trades in Finland
Sales, employment and investment

2. Sales 2010 Total EUR 118.6 billion (excl. VAT)
Source: Statistics Finland, Turnover of Trade
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3. Employees 2010 Total 298,000 Jaana Kurjenoja 10.8.2011
Source: Statistics Finland, Labour Force Survey
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4. Outlook - background
Retail trade sales volume grew by 3.5%, motor vehicle sales by 24% and wholesale trade sales by 1% in January-May 2011.
During the second quarter of 2011, employment in the retail trade grew by 2.7%, in the motor vehicle trade by 2.6% and in the wholesale trade by 1.6%.
GDP grew by 3.6% in This year economic growth will wane considerably and even more so next year. We are facing several years of low economic growth.
Inflation is over 3% this year and will slow down to well under 3% next year.
Household purchasing power will hardly grow at all during ; for employees, the growth will remain under 1% as the improvement in employment will further slow down. The purchasing power of single employee households will decrease.
The global financial crisis and public debt will undermine consumer confidence; consumer expectations about their own financial situation have clearly dimmed.
Growth in industrial production will substantially decrease towards the end of the year, and investment in machinery and equipment will not pick up as expected.
Construction investment in 2011 will rely greatly on service companies and households and will also decrease in 2012.
Jaana Kurjenoja

5. Consumer expectations about their financial situation over the next 12 months Balance figure
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6. View of the economic situation in Finland held by companies in the retail, wholesale and motor vehicle trades Balance figure
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7. Retail trade sales Annual average of the volume index
Sales volume will grow by 2% this year and by 1% in 2012.
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8. Employees in the retail trade x 1,000
The number of employees in the retail trade will grow by 1.5% this year and by 0.5% in 2012.
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9. Wholesale trade sales Annual average of the volume index
Sales volume will grow by 2% both this year and in 2012.
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10. Employees in the wholesale trade x 1,000
The number of employees in the wholesale trade will grow by 1.5% both this year and in 2012.
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11. Motor vehicle trade sales Average of the volume index
Sales volume will grow by 12% this year and by 3% in 2012.
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12. Employees in the motor vehicle trade x 1,000
The number of employees in the motor vehicle trade will grow by 2.5% this year and by 1.5% in 2012.
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13. Outlook - summary
Growth in retail trade sales volume will slow down in the second half of 2011 and in This year the sales volume growth will be 2% and next year 1%.
The average growth in retail trade sales in was 4.3%.
In 2011, employment in the retail trade will grow by 1.5% and in 2012 by 0.5%.
Sales volume in the wholesale trade has grown slowly this year due to the rise in energy and raw material prices and insufficient growth in industrial investment in machinery and equipment. Sales volume in the wholesale trade will grow by about 2% both this year and in 2012.
The average growth in wholesale trade sales in was 3.1%.
Employment in the wholesale trade will grow by 1.5% both this year and in 2012.
Thanks to good sales in early 2011, the sales volume in the motor vehicle trade will grow by about 12% this year but by only 3% in 2012.
The average growth in motor vehicle trade sales in was 5.6%.
Employment in the motor vehicle trade will grow by 2.5% this year and by 1.5% in 2012.
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14. Expectations of companies in the retail and wholesale trades
Investment 2011
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15. Retail, wholesale and motor vehicle trades as investors in the national economy x EUR million 2010
Source: Statistics Finland
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16. Retail, wholesale and motor vehicle trades as investors in the national economy x EUR million 2010
Source: Statistics Finland
* Housing construction
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17. Impact of demand outlook on investment decisions in 2011 Balance figure
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18. Construction and real estate investment 2011 Compared to 2010 % of respondents
Fewer than one in three companies in the retail trade will increase their construction investment, and just over one in four in the wholesale trade.
80% of companies investing in construction are renovating existing premises.
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19. Investment in machinery and equipment 2011 (excl
Investment in machinery and equipment 2011 (excl. motor vehicles) Compared to 2010 % of respondents
The retail trade in particular is investing in machinery and equipment this year; the wholesale trade is investing less.
82% of companies in the retail and wholesale trades are renewing existing equipment.
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20. Investment in motor vehicles 2011 Compared to 2010 % of respondents
The wholesale trade in particular is investing in motor vehicles this year.
90% of companies in the retail and wholesale trades are renewing existing vehicle fleets.
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21. Investment survey in the retail and wholesale trades
The demand outlook has clearly increased uncertainty regarding the desire of companies to invest. Investment in the rest of 2011 will not match the planned levels.
In summer 2011, in contrast to plans made earlier in the year, retail and wholesale companies began to increase investment only in transport equipment.
In the wholesale trade, investment in motor vehicles was greater than planned in regard to renewal of existing fleets, and less than planned in regard to acquiring additional new vehicles.
This year companies primarily invested in machinery and equipment. 90% of companies are investing in machinery and equipment, and 41% are increasing their investment in this from last year. Transfer to the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) will have an impact on investment in the retail trade.
Investment in the retail, wholesale and motor vehicle trades has decreased over two successive years now, by a total of 14%. Investment in machinery, equipment and transport equipment has decreased the most, which means that despite the economic conditions, there is a need for renewal.
Except for investments in transportation equipment and retail trade investment in machinery and equipment, investment in the retail and wholesale trades will not increase this year.
Jaana Kurjenoja