1. CALIFORNIA FORWARD
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, AND THE FUTURE
MANUEL PASTOR
@Prof_MPastor

5. IMMIGRATION AS A (NON-) FACTOR
Immigrant Share of the Population, United States, California, and Los Angeles County,

6. A MORE SETTLED IMMIGRANT POPULATION
Percent of Immigrant Population in U.S. Since 2004

7. THE LEGACY OF IMMIGRATION

8. THE LEGACY OF IMMIGRATION

10. WHO STAYS?

16. A NEW GENERATION GAP?

17. ARIZONA IS NUMBER ONE . . .

18. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY
Note- Data sources: Data are for tax units. The tables use state-level tax data from Regional Income Inequality in the United States, Estelle Sommeiller's 2006 Ph.D. disseration for the University of Delaware, extended to 2012 using data from the Internal Revenue Service's SOI Tax Stats and Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez's 2012 updates to their 2003 Quarterly Journal of Economics article, "Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998."
Also important: In 1928 the top 1% of Californians had 20% of all income in the state. In 1979 that number was 10.2%, and in 2007 it has grown to exceed the Gilded Age era, at 22.7% (source: table 5)
Source: Economic Policy Institute

19. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY
Source: US Census

20. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY
Source: US Census

21. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY
Household Gini Coefficient , 2014
From the Who Rules America article: “According to the Census Bureau, the official U.S. Gini coefficient — a measure of income inequality — was 46.9 in 2010, the most recent year for which data is available. It rises to 57.4 if capital gains are included, and capital gains primarily boost the incomes of the rich and very rich. Most developed countries have Gini's in the high 20's to mid 30's, and even countries like Egypt (34.4) and Yemen (37.7) are more equal. The Gini can also be applied to net worth distributions, in which the U.S. scores in the very high mid-80s.”
(ASL)The last point highlights the effect of entrenched and concentrated inherited wealth on income inequality
Source: US Census

22. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY
From Twelve Ways To Reverse California's Income Inequality:
Close the Wealth Gap: It’s not enough to raise wages – we need to enable Californians to build their wealth and their personal safety nets.
Source: California Budget and Policy Center

23. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY
Source: IPUMS

24. CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY
California productivity growth greater than nation
California compensation growth lower than nation

25. Source: IPUMS

26. Source: IPUMS

27. PERSISTENT RACIAL GAPS
Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity, California
Source: IPUMS

28. REPRODUCING RACIAL GAPS
California kids of color concentrated in high-poverty schools

29. REPRODUCING RACIAL GAPS

30. LOCK ‘EM UP . . . AND ITS LEGACY

31. THINKING NEW: EQUITY AND GROWTH
Conventional wisdom in economics says there is a trade-off between equity and efficiency.
But, new evidence shows that regions that work toward equity have stronger and more resilient economic growth—for everyone.
Our FRAME: Equity and growth go hand-in-hand. It’s what we call “Just Growth.”
Evidence from organizations like the Cleveland Federal Reserve and the World Bank show that places with less inequality have more resilient and robust economies.
Source:
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USC PERE | November 2013 | 31

32. EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH
Even the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland found that that racial inclusion and income equality matter for growth.
Federal Reserve of Cleveland studies almost 120 mid-size regions, looking for factors that predict regional prosperity
Usual suspects: skilled workforce, quality of life, industrial decline
Unusual suspects: income inequality, racial exclusion, concentration of poverty – and they’re highly significant
Image Sources:

33. EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH

34. EVIDENCE: EQUITY AND GROWTH
We have developed these ideas further in . . .
Our own analysis also shows the importance of equity in growing regional economies to benefit everyone.

35. THINKING NEW: DISCOVERING THE WHY
Underinvestment in each other makes us less competitive as regions and as a nation
From Twelve Ways To Reverse California's Income Inequality:
Renew Our Democracy: We need a thriving democracy to ensure broadly shared economic prosperity, and in California that means fostering civic engagement and finding creative solutions that remove barriers to participating in the political process.
Social tensions over who will gain and who will lose make us less likely to cohere on what we need to do to thrive

36. AND WHY SO IMPORTANT NOW?

37. LEADING FORWARD
So it’s a challenge for all of us: business leaders must rethink the role of equity and understand the new demography
But equity proponents need to see economic realities & propose growth-enhancing approaches
And one of the “Just Growth” sweet spots is adult education– empowered workforce, better economy

38. IMPLICATIONS FOR LEADERSHIP
Recognize that this is an aspirational not an angry constituency
Stress that equity and inclusion are fundamental not add-on’s
Help people understand the task is not just to beat the odds but change the odds
Push folks to see community college students as having agency – and being agents

39. IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMUNITY COLLEGES
Accept that it’s a broader mission that we’re on – to bridge social structure & individual initiative

40. FOR MORE . . .
@Prof_MPastor