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Published byMaximillian James Modified over 6 years ago
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Liting Shen Jiamo Tian Ning Wang Presented on Sept. 29, 2016
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Historical Transactions
Buy Sell Nov. 11, 1999 Purchased 200 shares @ $36 Mar. 2, 2000 2 for 1 stock split Hold 400 shares Mar. 4, 2001 2 for 1 stock split Hold 800 shares Nov. 25, 2013 Sold 200 shares @ $56.75 Sell Sell Sept. 28, 2016 Hold 100 $86.68 Jan. 15, 2007 Sold 400 shares @ $22.53 Apr. 14, 2016 Sold 100 shares @ $82.58
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Current Holding Current share price: $86.68
Current holding value: $8,668 Initial investment: $900 Unrealized gain: $7,768e-factors: Takes up 5.99% of invested holdings(without cash), 2.06% of invested holdings(with cash)
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Business Overview Founded in 1976 Headquartered in Monett, Missouri
Providing technology solutions and payment processing services primarily for financial services organizations in the United States Three business brands:
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Press Release Jack Henry & Associates Integrates Banno Mobile into Core Environments Executive Changes at Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. Take Effect New clients: SESLOC Federal Credit Union Dade County Federal Credit Union AltaOne Federal Credit Union Bank of Newington, Cleveland State Bank Mountain Credit Union Jack Henry & Associates Ends Fiscal 2016 With 8% Increase In Gross Profit Jack Henry & Associates Ends Third Quarter Fiscal 2016 With 8% Increase In Revenue
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Revenue Breakdown Support and service revenue (96%)
Hardware revenue(4%) License revenue(<1%):
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Acquisition Completed two acquisitions in the last three years
Complemented 29 acquisitions since the end of fiscal 1999 Fiscal Year Company or Product Name Products and Services 2016 Bayside Business Solutions Portfolio management systems and factoring software 2014 Banno Mobile banking, web development and data-enriched marketing technology 2010 iPay Technologies Electronic bill payment and P2P services PEMCO Technology Services Payment transaction processing solutions for credit unions Goldleaf Financial Solutions Integrated technology and payment processing solutions
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Financial Analysis
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SWOT Strength: Effective management team
Strong financial positions: NO DEBT! Developed client base Significant investment in R&D Weakness: Growth relies heavily on acquisition Internal control over financial reporting Opportunity: Sell outside traditional markets in the financial services industry Introduce and innovate new products and services to generate new cross-sales Outsourcing service Threat: Cyber security risk Damage or destruction that interrupts outsourcing operations Changing regulation in financial industry
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Greenblat and DuPont Analysis
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tax Burden 66.9% 68.4% 64.9% 66.8% 69% Interest Burden 98.1% 97.7% 99.8% 99.6% 99.7% Profit Margin 23% 22.6% 24.6% 25.3% 26.7% Assets Turnover 63.4% 68% 69.8% 74.6% Leverage Ratio 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.8 Return on Equity 15.8% 15.6% 19.3% 21.3% 25%
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Industry Analysis - Competitors
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (NYSE:FIS) offers a range of solutions in retail and enterprise banking, payments, capital markets, asset and wealth management, risk and compliance, treasury, and insurance; financial consulting and outsourcing services Fiserv, Inc. (NasdaqGS:FISV) provides financial services technology worldwide. Payments and Industry Products segment Financial Institution Services segment DH Corporation (TSX:DH) provides lending, payments, enterprise, and global transaction banking solutions to banks, specialty lenders, credit unions, governments, and corporations worldwide. personal and business check channel solutions Source: JKHY 10K(Jun 30, 2016)
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Industry Analysis - Competitors
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Porter’s Five Forces Rivalry Among Existing Competitors
Threat of New Entrants Low - High new entrants barrier - Banks and credit unions are merging Threat of Substitutes Moderate - Switching cost is high Rivalry Among Existing Competitors High - Several competitors - Significant consolidation among providers Bargaining Power of Buyers - Long-term contracts - Low product differentiation Bargaining Power of Suppliers - Few gap in production line
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Comparable Analysis - Valuation
Source: Capital IQ
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Comparable Analysis - Valuation
Implied Price: $79.80 Source: Capital IQ
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Growth Drivers Annual Growth: 7.1% Macroeconomics: Corporate-factors:
Gross Domestic Product Disposable Income E-commerce Global Population Growth Industry-factors: Commercial bank Credit Union Competitions Regulation Corporate-factors: Operation Key employees Products Innovation Acquisitions Intangible Assets Annual Growth: 7.1%
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Historical Annualized Return on Stock
Assumptions WACC Risk-free rate 1.7% Beta 0.74 Risk Premium 4.5% CAPM 5% (75%) Historical Annualized Return on Stock 19.7% (25%) Cost of Equity 8.7%
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DCF Valuation Intrinsic Value: $ 81.50
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Sensitivity Analysis
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Monte Carlo Simulation
Simulation Variables E-commerce GDP Corporate factors Personal Disposable Income Statistics Mean $81.3 Standard Deviation $2.4 1 Std. Dev. Interval – 68% $78.9, $83.8 3 Std. Dev. Interval – 99% $74, $88.7
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Potential Opportunities:
Recommendation DCF Valuation $ Potential Opportunities: Conservative growth projection New CEO Suitable Acquisitions High investment in R&D Current Price $ Hold Comparable Valuation $
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