1. First Intifada, the Oslo Accords, and the Aftermath
PSCI 4242
2/23/17

2. First things first… Current Events Ms. Sanchez Pastor Ms. Muramatsu
Head’s Up: A new thought paper question will be posted to class website tomorrow
Recap last class

3. Impending Intifada: Rising Discontent
Domestic problems
Palestine territory was limited, but rising population leads to crowding and rising unemployment
Little opportunity in Palestine territories: Palestinians are forced to work in Israel, are required to hold a permit and speak Hebrew
Mostly relegated to unskilled labor, even those with college degrees
Rejection of settlements and deportations
Weak representation of Palestine interests
PLO/PNC in exile, do not meet in Gaza but across the Middle East. Inconsistent support from Arab States
Arafat kicked out of Jordan in 1983, ends up leading PLO from Tunisia
US does not recognize PLO, supports Israeli definition of Palestinians as terrorists

4. First Intifada (1987) Intifada: Arabic for “shaking off”
Less successful than Taylor Swift
Popular, disorganized protest, strike, boycott, and disobedience in Gaza and West Bank against Israel
Mostly young men and children!
Israeli responds with iron fist: Palestinians throws stones, Israeli military demolishes homes with tanks
A few hundred Palestinians killed in first year (about 1,000 over next six years), and 11,500 wounded (2/3rds of which under age 15)
By end of 1988, about 250,000 Palestinian refugees in Gaza strip and about 400,000 in camps
Hamas (militant wing of Muslim Brotherhood) emerges to fight holy war against Israel. Hamas responds with violence and receives increasing support from Palestinian youth

5. Intifada Aftermath to the Madrid Peace Conference
Response causes international decline in support for Israel, Palestine becomes the victim
In Arab League Summit in 1988 PNC/PLO declares Palestine independent state, recognized by 27 countries (mostly Arab, not US)
End of Cold War ( ): USSR support for PLO and Arab countries dwindles
No “superpower” support for PLO and pre-1967 borders
But Israel concerned its US support may wane as the US had viewed Israel as a key ally in weakening Soviet backed states
Gulf War (1990): Iraq invades Kuwait, crushes idea of Arab unity
PLO supported Iraq, Israel viewed Iraq as a key threat
Gulf War strengthened Israel and weakened Palestine

6. From Madrid (1991) to Oslo (1993)
The ending Cold War and the outcome of the Gulf War strengthen Israel, but international public support declines after first intifada
Pressure for Israel to engage in peace talks, but little interest from Likud government to participate in public negotiations
Madrid Peace Conference: US and Spain host first face-to-face negotiations between Israel and Arab states
Shamir and Likud government demand $11 billion loan guarantee from US as a condition of participation. Loan guarantee is rejected. Lackluster participation by Israel. Nothing happens.
Weakening support for Likud government
1992 elections Labor party wins plurality, Rabin elected Prime Minister
Rabin open to increasing Palestinian autonomy, but bilateral talks quickly become standstill
Increasing US aid to Israel and rising Palestinian violence and attacks against Israel prompts Rabin to seal off Palestinian territories and implement travel restrictions

7. The Oslo Accords (1993)
Publicly, Israeli-Palestine relations were at a standstill. Both Rabin and Arafat support peace talks but Rabin did not want to legitimize violent acts and Arafat did not want to alienate Islamic militant and radical groups that discouraged peace talks.
The solution? Secret talks! Rabin and Arafat engage in secret negotiations mediated by Norway in September 1993
Those meetings resulted in the Oslo Accords which resulted in:
Mutual recognition of the other party’s existence
Arafat/PLO agreed to renounce violence
Rabin agreed to recognize the PLO as a negotiating partner and the official representative of Palestine
Leads to Declaration on Interim Self-Government for Palestinians, signed later at White House
Israel to withdraw from Gaza strip and Jericho
Palestinian council (PNA) to run West Bank and Gaza strip for 5 years

8. Oslo Aftermath
Rabin, Arafat, and Peres win 1994 Nobel Peace Prize for the successful negotiations!
So it worked! Right? Not so much…
Turns out “Self-Government” meant different things to Israel and PLO
PLO assumed the interim self-governance would lead to independent statehood
Israel saw this only as a step toward increasing Palestinian autonomy
Oslo Accords ultimately lets down both sides
Rabin assassinated in 1995 by an opponent of the agreement, immediately replaced by Peres
However Likud reclaims power in 1996 elections, opponents of Palestinian autonomy
While Peres and Rabin had limited settlements, Likud does not
Hamas remains active with intermittent attacks. Back and forth with Israeli military
Next round of negotiations fails: Arafat and Barak fail to reach agreement at Camp David in Israeli opposition leader Sharon walks into Temple Mount, and the second intifada begins…
Why didn't the Oslo Accords and subsequent efforts work?