0. Fuel Quality & It’s Impact on Tailpipe Emission
Vehicle Fuel Quality Workshop
22nd August 2006
Manila, Philippines
Lee Chook Khean
Communications Director

1. Presentation Outline Air Pollution from Motor Vehicles
Importance of Fuel Quality
Future Fuel Quality
Conclusions
The key topics we will address include:
Refined Petroleum Product Markets:
Here we will examine the relative contribution of individual countries to the region’s total petroleum product demand and review the breakdown among different products to better understands gasoline’s role in the mix. We will look at the growth potential for the region in terms of per-capita consumption and look at the gasoline demand forecast through As part of this segment we will also examine the Chinese market in a little more detail as it represents such a large percentage of the region’s demand.
Vehicle Emissions, Air Quality Impacts & Challenges
We will then switch tracks to discuss the major pollutants emitted by man-made activities that impacting air quality in Asia today. We will briefly review the current status of air quality conditions in 8 major urban centers – “megacities” – in Asia to show that, while progress is being made to improve air quality, substantial work is still needed to attain healthy air quality goals. We will next highlight the contribution of mobile source to air pollution and present a summary of the directional impact that changes in gasoline properties can have on emissions. In this regard, we will expand our analysis beyond the traditional range of pollutants (HC’s, Toxics, CO, NOx, to look at fine particulate emissions as well as the relative reactivity of gasoline components. Our objective is to convey an accurate and comprehensive depiction of the challenges that Asian refiners are facing and will face o an even greater degree in he future.
Emergence of Cleaner Burning Fuels
Here, we will discuss the evolution of major clean gasoline programs in Asia and compare to the status of such programs in Europe and North America, with some of the differences highlighted and explained. E will review the drivers underlying gasoline reformulation initiatives, and look at the delicate balance between social and environmental benefits versus costs.
Contributions of Oxygenates
The impacts of petrol properties on emissions and air pollution will be examined and the impacts of oxygenates to fuel properties and emissions profiles will be presented. Further, such factors as energy content and supply volume for various gasoline formulations will be noted.
Conclusions & Highlights
Overall highlights and conclusions will be summarized.

2. Motor Vehicles & Air Pollution
The answer to ““what happens when Asia’s demand on average moves up to even half of the U.S.’ can be partially seen in this figure which shows Asia’s gasoline demand increasing from 4 million barrels per day to 6.5 million barrels per day by 2020, or by over 60 percent. While refiners in the region are expected to expand capacity and make the necessary investment to basically cover gasoline demand with a near-negligible impact on imports, this will not come cheaply.

3. Air Pollution in Asian Cities
Source : CAI-Asia

4. Air Quality in Selected Mega Cities
City
SO2 PM
Lead CO
NO2
Ozone
Beijing
New Delhi
Jakarta
Manila
Seoul
Shanghai
Tokyo
Bangkok
Low
Moderate
Heavy
Serious
Source: World Health Organization

5. Contribution of Mobile Source Emissions
Source: Roger Gorham, Global Initiative on
Transport Emissions, UN Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, 2002.

6. Contribution of Air Pollution from Motor Vehicles
Current world’s vehicle population is estimated at 800 million and expected to rise to 1 billion by 2020
Increase in vehicle population has resulted in worsening air quality in major cities in the world.
Improvement in fuel quality have to work together with vehicle technology.

7. Three Key Technologies for Reducing Emission
Experiment
Diagnostics
Simulation
Combustion
Technology
After treatment
Fuel
Combustion Kinetics 　 Reformulation
　Additives
Variable Mechanisms
Electronic Control
Materials
Reformulation
Catalytic Chemistry

8. Importance of Fuel Quality
The answer to ““what happens when Asia’s demand on average moves up to even half of the U.S.’ can be partially seen in this figure which shows Asia’s gasoline demand increasing from 4 million barrels per day to 6.5 million barrels per day by 2020, or by over 60 percent. While refiners in the region are expected to expand capacity and make the necessary investment to basically cover gasoline demand with a near-negligible impact on imports, this will not come cheaply.

9. Air Pollution Management
Emission Regulations
Alternative Fuels
In-use Vehicles
Fuel
Quality
Traffic Management
Government
Departments
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Oil
Companies
Legislators
Users
NGOs
Research
Institutions

10. Drivers for Improved Fuel Qualities
Source: Arthur D. Little

11. Gasoline Fuel Quality Improvement
Source: Arthur D. Little

12. Diesel Fuel Quality Improvement
Source: Arthur D. Little

13. Benefits of Improved Fuel Quality
Source: Arthur D. Little

14. Effect of Gasoline Quality on Emission

15. Why is Fuel Quality Important ?
Fuel constituents directly affect emissions
Fuel changes can immediately impact emissions & air quality
Fuel composition can enable/disable pollution control technology
Elimination of Lead enable usage of catalytic converter
Low sulphur enhances the usage of catalytic converter
Other fuel properties are also important

16. Effect on Health
The effects on health of transport-related air pollution are among the leading concerns about transport. Research in recent decades consistently indicates the adverse effects of outdoor air pollution on human health, and the evidence points to air pollution stemming from transport as an important contributor to these effects.
World Health Organisation

17. Fuel Quality Properties Classification
Fuel qualities are classified as :
Enhancing properties - change emissions by a small degree compared with the changes brought about by engine technology.
Enabling properties - the changes they bring about enable the use of new engine technologies that can greatly reduce pollutant emissions

18. Unleaded and Low Sulphur Gasoline
Lead and Sulphur poisons the catalyst in modern three way catalytic converter
Impact is irreversible
Future low emission technologies even more sensitive
CO, HC & NOX emissions all improve with low sulphur gasoline
Catalytic Converter reduces 90% of CO, HC
& NOx Tailpipe emissions

19. Typical Emission Reduction System for Gasoline

20. Typical Emission Reduction System for Diesel
Air Flow Sensor E
Exhaust Throttle Valve
Integrated After Treatment System
　 ・Oxidation Cat.
　 ・DPF
　 ・DeNOx Cat. E
Exhaust
Gas
Fresh
Air
Reductant Supply System
Turbocharger
(VGT，Two-staged) E
Inter-cooler
Temperatures and Pressures
EGR Cooler
EGR Valve E
Intake Throttle Valve E
Output for Control
ECU
High Pressure Injection System (Multiple
Injection） E
: Electronic Control E

21. Current & Future Fuel Quality
The answer to ““what happens when Asia’s demand on average moves up to even half of the U.S.’ can be partially seen in this figure which shows Asia’s gasoline demand increasing from 4 million barrels per day to 6.5 million barrels per day by 2020, or by over 60 percent. While refiners in the region are expected to expand capacity and make the necessary investment to basically cover gasoline demand with a near-negligible impact on imports, this will not come cheaply.

22. Global Status – Leaded Gasoline Phase-out
(as of 1 June 2006)
Source: UNEP – Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles

23. Global Fuel Quality Status
Lead
Removal
Volatility
Controls
&
Oxygenate
Introduction
Initial
Benzene
Sulfur
Reduction
Olefin &
Aromatic
Content
Limits
Elimination
Additional
Composition of
Renewable
Fuels
(Biofuels)
Objective:
Control Emissions of Traditional Air Pollutants
CO2 Reduction
North
America
WesternEurope
Indonesia
Cambodia
Vietnam Philippines
Malaysia
Singapore
Thailand
China
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
We have seen the level of demand growth expected in the region and discussed the impact that this will have on refiners and the magnitude of the investment that refiners will have to make to produce not only higher volumes but also substantially cleaner fuels. It is no secret that Asia has long suffered with unacceptable air pollution levels in many of its large urban centers.
Source: International Fuel Quality Center

24. Global Gasoline Standards
Automobile Maker Standards – World Wide Fuel Charter (WWFC)
European Union (EURO) Standards
US Standards - Boutique Fuels

25. EU Gasoline Standards
The cost associated with this transformation of China’s refining industry will be high. A 2002 supply security study for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation countries, indicated that between 4 to 6 billion US$ will be spent by Chinese refiners by 2006 and this cost rises to between 12 and 14 billion US$ by 2012 to basically bring China to Euro III and IV fuel standards, depending on the specific fuel reformulation objectives that are implemented, i.e., degree of product desulfurization required, level of oxygenate use, etc. Important:
For example, relying on MTBE to facilitate achievement of Euro II and Euro IV specifications is estimated to help reduce the necessary capital investment for Chinese refiners by $600 MM in 2006 and over $1 Billion in 2012.

26. EU Diesel Standards
The cost associated with this transformation of China’s refining industry will be high. A 2002 supply security study for Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation countries, indicated that between 4 to 6 billion US$ will be spent by Chinese refiners by 2006 and this cost rises to between 12 and 14 billion US$ by 2012 to basically bring China to Euro III and IV fuel standards, depending on the specific fuel reformulation objectives that are implemented, i.e., degree of product desulfurization required, level of oxygenate use, etc. Important:
For example, relying on MTBE to facilitate achievement of Euro II and Euro IV specifications is estimated to help reduce the necessary capital investment for Chinese refiners by $600 MM in 2006 and over $1 Billion in 2012.

27. Road Transport Emissions in Europe
We have seen the level of demand growth expected in the region and discussed the impact that this will have on refiners and the magnitude of the investment that refiners will have to make to produce not only higher volumes but also substantially cleaner fuels. It is no secret that Asia has long suffered with unacceptable air pollution levels in many of its large urban centers.

28. Emission from Gasoline Cars in Europe
We have seen the level of demand growth expected in the region and discussed the impact that this will have on refiners and the magnitude of the investment that refiners will have to make to produce not only higher volumes but also substantially cleaner fuels. It is no secret that Asia has long suffered with unacceptable air pollution levels in many of its large urban centers.

29. Cost of Upgrading
We have seen the level of demand growth expected in the region and discussed the impact that this will have on refiners and the magnitude of the investment that refiners will have to make to produce not only higher volumes but also substantially cleaner fuels. It is no secret that Asia has long suffered with unacceptable air pollution levels in many of its large urban centers.
Source : International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

30. Benefit of Cleaner Fuels
We have seen the level of demand growth expected in the region and discussed the impact that this will have on refiners and the magnitude of the investment that refiners will have to make to produce not only higher volumes but also substantially cleaner fuels. It is no secret that Asia has long suffered with unacceptable air pollution levels in many of its large urban centers.
Source : International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

31. Conclusions
Asia contains countries at widely differing levels of economic development and environmental quality
Transport fuel qualities vary widely
Fuel reformulation generally follows the EURO model
Significant progress have been made in fuel quality improvement but much work still needs to be done
We have seen the level of demand growth expected in the region and discussed the impact that this will have on refiners and the magnitude of the investment that refiners will have to make to produce not only higher volumes but also substantially cleaner fuels. It is no secret that Asia has long suffered with unacceptable air pollution levels in many of its large urban centers.