1. The Future?
Global Trends 2035

2. 1. Big Power Rivalry?
New Cold War or…

3. South China Sea Timeline

5. China’s Nine-Dash Line

6. Competing Claims

7. Oil and Gas

8. Oil Trade

9. Natural Gas Trade

10. Spratly Islands Disputes

11. Mischief Reef Chinese “Naval Base”

12. Philippine Claim to the Second Thomas Shoal

13. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 1982
12 mile limit from a nation’s coast: legal jurisdiction for the nation
200 miles form a nation’s coast Exclusive economic rights for the nation
Dispute resolution mechanism
Direct talks between the parties.
If they fail:
submission of the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea
adjudication by the International Court of Justice
submission to binding international arbitration procedures
submission to special arbitration tribunals with expertise in specific types of disputes. All of these procedures involve binding third-party settlement
Exceptions for cases involving national sovereignty. Parties submit their dispute to a conciliation commission; results are non-binding.

14. Summer 2016: Philippines v. China in Court
Ruling by Permanent Court of Arbitration
Summary

15. 2. Interdependence

16. US Trade Partners

17. China Trade Partners

18. 3. Multipolarity US EU
China
India
Japan
Russia
Brazil

19. 4. US leadership? United Nations World Trade Organization IMF
World Bank
IAEA
NATO
APEC

20. 5. Ideological Leadership
Liberal Democracy vs.
Theocracy
Soft Authoritarianism

21. 6. Domestic Problems
James Moody and Peter Mucha. “Portrait of Political Party Polarization.” Network Science / Volume 1 / Issue 01 / April 2013, pp

22. Education
Program for International Student Assessment rankings Ranking: Reading 17th Math: 31st Science: 23rd

23. Deficit and Debt
Federal Deficit (Historical Tables) (2017)

24. National Debt
National Debt: the accumulated deficits, plus other incurred debt by the US National Debt Clock

25. Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information
US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities
Other Investors/Savings Bonds
China
Japan
Pension Funds
Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds
State and Local Governments in US UK
Banks
Insurance Companies
OPEC nations
Brazil
Caribbean nations
Hong Kong
Canada

26. US Defense Spending

27. Defense as % of Federal Budget

28. Defense Spending as a Percentage of GDP

30. 7. Fundamental Changes? Transformation of the Nation-state System:
Urbanization plus increased inequality
People Power or State Failure?
Disturbance Democracy
Non-State Actors
US Turns Inward: Rejects Leadership
Infectious Diseases
Climate Change

31. A1. Urbanization plus increased inequality
Caracas, Venezuela

32. Mumbai, India

33. Megacities Tokyo, Japan: 2016: 38,140,000
Delhi, India: 2016: 26,454,000
Shanghai, China: 2016: 24,484,000
Mumbai (Bombay), India: 2016: 21,357,000
São Paulo, Brazil: 2016: 21,297,000
Beijing, China: 2016: 21,240,000
Mexico City, Mexico: 2016: 21,157,000
 Osaka, Japan: 2016: 20,337,000
Cairo, Egypt: 2016: 19,128,000
New York-Newark, USA: 2016: 18,604,000

34. A2. People Power or State Breakdown?
Arab Uprising 2011

35. A3. Disturbance Democracy:
1999 Battle for Seattle

36. London 2011

37. Ukraine 2014

38. A4. Non-State Actors Mapping Militant Organizations (Reference)
al-Shabab vs. Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia (and US)
ISIL vs. Iraq, Iran, Syria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (and US)
Boko Haram vs. Nigeria, Cameroon, Mali, Niger

39. ISIS’s Global Reach

40. Transnational Organized Crime: Mexico vs. Drug Cartels (2015 numbers)

41. B. US Turns Inward: Rejects Leadership
Public Opinion Runs Against Syrian Airstrikes, Pre Research Center for the People and the Press, SEPTEMBER 3, 2013
Widespread Middle East Fears that Syrian Violence Will Spread, Pew Research Global Attitudes Project, MAY 1, 2013

42. America First?

43. C. Infectious Disease

44. D. Climate Change (from NOAA)