1. Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Feed Competitiveness in Pakistan
Professor Ghulam Habib
Livestock Consultant
Peshawar

2. GHG in Earth’s Atmosphere Cause of Climate Change
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Water vapours
Ozone
Drivers
Natural +
Man-made (Anthropogenic)

3. Factors causing climate change

4. Human and natural drivers of climate change
Changes in radiative forcings between 1750 and 2005 as estimated by the IPCC. Ruijun Long , 2012

6. Global GHG Emission by Sector
Source: Big Facts Project (CGIAR )–2012

7. Direct Agriculture Emission
Source: Big Facts Project (CGIAR )–2012
31% 6%

8. Share of Livestock in human induced GHG emission
The livestock sector is a major player, responsible for 18% of GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent. This is a higher share than transport.” (FAO 2006)

9. Agriculture GHG Emissions 2010 Asia Region
Pakistan among the top five most vulnerable countries being affected by climate crisis
Pakistan faces annual loss of Rs billion (5.42% of GDP) due to climate crisis
(German Watch Instt. 2013)
FAO,2012

10. Agriculture GHG Emission in Pakistan
Source: FAOSTAT, 2013

11. ; Livestock as active player in GHG emission responsible for;
Global warming
Water depletion
Increase aridity in dry areas
Floods in wet areas
Reduce feed supply
Frequent droughts
Changes in diseases pattern
Emerging new diseases
BUT
Livestock itself are victim of all this

12. Increasing risks from climate change to Animal Feed Supply Affecting;
Forages Crop production, Rangeland
(oilseed & cereal crops)
Greens oilseed cake & meals, grains, Grazing
byproducts & crop residues

13. National Feed Resources 2011
G. Habib 2013

14. Heterogeneous Feed Resources
Agricultural land 31%
G. Habib 2013

15. Feed Balance 2011 Deficiencies DM 18.9% CP 32.8% ME 24.1%
G. Habib 2013

16. Implications of Climate Change for Feed Supply from Agriculture & Fodder crops
Considerable threats to crop productivity (e.g. for each day above 30°C, maize yields declined by 1 to 1.7% (Lobell et al., 2011).
Extreme hot temperature coinciding with flowering stage disrupt pollination & reduce grain yield
Challenge of pests and diseases
Substantial risks to the volume, volatility, and quality of animal feed supply chains from climate change

17. Climate Change Affect Feed Value of Forage
Temperature & water variability
Influence
Fiber contents
Lignification
Protein Contents
Leaf: Stem ratio
Digestibility
Intake

18. Limited fodder supply with less land & low productivity
Fodder land as 7.5% of cropped land
Cultivated fodder hardly meet 40% green requirement of cattle and buffalo population
Shift to hybrid fodder verities But yields threatened by climate variability
Left Axis
Agric. Statistics Pakistan ;
Economic Survey

19. Dimensions of High Feed Demand
Rising Global Concern on Competition for Grains
57% of Coarse grains used as animal feed
FAO Food outlook 2013

20. and So is the case in Pakistan
Feed
estimate
Agric. Statistics Pakistan ;
Economic Survey
FAO; 2013 and Own estimates
Coarse Grain Utilization in Pakistan

21. Share in Grain Consumption
Mixed Extension System
Crop-LS System
Intensive System
Dairy Cow Buffalo 1%
19%
80%
Sheep Goat
53%
43%
04%
Poultry -
100%
G. Habib 2013

22. Consumption pattern of feed grains
Maize as major feed grain
Grains
Consumption as feed
Thousand Tons
Percent
Maize
3,018
80.6
Wheat
269
7.2
Rice Broken
144
3.8
Millet/sorghum
285
7.3
Barley 37
1.0
G. Habib 2013

23. Increasing pressure on maize grain question long term sustainability of feed supply
Quantity in Thousand Ton
Year
Animal Feed
Human Food & Seed
Total
Production
Cultivated Area (thousand ha)
Productivity ton/ha
2011
3,018
800
3,818
3707
974
3.81
2020
5186
1120
6,306 ?
Cultivated area can not be increased for maize
Overall maize productivity is below international level
Future thrust on high yielding low tannin and drought tolerant sorghum would help

24. Coarse Grain Area &Production in Pakistan
Slow parallel decrease
Linear rise in productivity
FAOSTAT-2013

25. Gaps in Protein meals filled from import to meet the domestic demand
Dependence on import of oil meals will continue for poultry, fish and dairy sectors in future

26. Rangelands in response to Climate Change
Highly Vulnerable Rangeland : 52.2 million ha
Productivity reduced 50-75%
Palatable grasses replaced by unpalatable, weeds, shrubs to the extent of 40%
Vegetation cover decreased by 30%
Alarming desertification of 43 million ha rangeland in arid zones
Chang e in species composition of animal herds
Source: National Range Policy 2010

27. Succession of degradation on alpine steppe over-grazing + climate change

28. Degradation of arid and desert rangelands over-grazing + climate change

29. High threat to livestock from droughts
Heavy death tolls
Feed scarcity, starvation
Water scarcity, dehydration
Drastic decrease in production

30. Emerging National Livestock Trends
Accelerated livestock growth
Rapid Dairy Intensification with exotic breeds
Explosive growth of commercial poultry Emerging Feedlot , Commercial fisheries & Quail farming
BUT
Heavy reliance on natural resources
Depleting land based feed resources
Limited capacity (financial and technological) to adapt to changing environment

31. Major Concerns
1. How the livestock systems to produce milk & meat can cope over the coming decades with increases in the human population, changes in diet, and greater demands on land and water resources

32. Demand Driven Livestock Population Growth in Pakistan
Demand growth for livestock products is huge & expected to outpace production growth !!
G. Habib ICLN, Lahore Oct. 2013

33. Demand growth is occurring against a backdrop of ….
Limited arable land
Increasing water scarcity
Fragmented livestock base
Growing pollution & more extreme weather events
High population densities & progressive urbanization
Large numbers of food insecure people
Progressive
aridity
LS: arable land ratio (FAO 2013)
Herd Size
Urbanization Trend in Pakistan (World Bank 2012)

34. Major Concern….Contd
2. Farmers have to adapt to climate-resilient fodder and feed crops & shall go for native adapted animal breeds (selective breeding)
3. Competition for feed and food & among animal species will increase costs of feeds. Economic pressure may force animal production to;
more reliant on poor “feeds” and less reliant on human edible “foods” Ruminant livestock Vs monogastrics
or put a brake on the growth of poultry production.

35. Major Concern….Contd
4. Negative effects of climate change on crop yields per ha will push ruminant production of meat and milk more to non-arable land -- shift from “mixed crop – LS system” to “extensive, semi-extensive system”
LS raised on rangelands will be of greater value for human food security
Livestock Species
Edible protein input/output ratio
Pakistan (Habib, 2013)
Edible protein input/output ratio India
( Anandan et al. 2013)
Cattle & Buffalo 18 15
Sheep & Goats 9 41
Poultry 1
Human edible protein produced/human edible protein fed, the efficiency is higher for ruminants than for monogastrics

36. Major Concern….Contd
Key challenge is to maintain sufficient feed crop yields, & reduce methane & N emissions per unit of milk, meat produced.
Shall require combined expertise of climate, crop, and animal scientists working together to reduce the risks of climate change on animal feed supplies.
Garg, 2012

37. Major Concern….Contd
Progressive degradation of rangelands coupled with increased temperature & water scarcity will lead to “Transformational Adaptation”
Camel & goats would be dominant grazing species
Drastic reduction in herd size
Exit from livestock farming

38. “We have modified our environment so radically that we must now modify ourselves to exist in this new environment." ~Norbert Wiener
Thank you