1. National RPO Technical Meeting June 9, 2005 Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM
Tools and Techniques for Identifying Contributions to Regional Haze in the MANE-VU Region
National RPO Technical Meeting
June 9, 2005
Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM

2. What tools and techniques has MANE-VU developed to improve our understanding of attribution?
MANE-VU is building a weight of evidence approach looking at monitoring data, emissions inventory data, regional air-quality modeling and key data analysis findings
All these techniques have been synthesized and interpreted in an interim “contribution assessment” or pollution apportionment report
Lye Brook Falls
Lye Brook
Vermont
March 15, 2004

3. Conceptual Model
Summertime PM results largely from the regional transport/production of sulfate
Wintertime PM results from the regional transport/production of sulfate + local sulfate + local organics + local nitrate
Worst twenty percent days are mostly summer, but include several winter days as well
Woodcock
Moosehorn
Maine
March 15, 2004

4. Monitoring Review 2002 monitoring data
Demonstrate how these data support the conceptual model
Review Baseline Conditions
Illustrate implications for control strategies
Review RAIN and how M-V is preparing for long-term demands of monitoring strategy
Mulholland Point Lighthouse
Roosevelt Campobello
Maine
March 15, 2004

5. Monitoring Data: Rural/Urban
March 15, 2004

6. Monitoring Data: Seasonality
30-day running
average PM2.5 for 2002
March 15, 2004

7. Weight of Evidence Approach
Analytical technique
Approach
Emissions/distance
Empirical
Incremental Probability
“Receptor”-based trajectory technique
Cluster-weighted Probability
Emissions x upwind probability
Empirical/trajectory hybrid
Source Apportionment Approaches
Receptor model/trajectory hybrid
REMSAD tagged species
“Source”-based grid model
CALPUFF with MM5-based meteorology
“Source”-based dispersion model
CALPUFF with observation based meteorology
Geese
Brigantine
New Jersey
March 15, 2004

8. Emissions/Distance Analysis
March 15, 2004

9. Trajectory Analysis: Best Day/Worst Day
March 15, 2004

10. Brigantine Sulfate Clustered Incremental Probability
Cluster 1 replaced with subclusters (Top Quintile Expanded)
Summer- April through September
Winter- October through March
71% summer trajs
29% winter trajs
Top 2.5%
68% summer trajs
32% winter trajs
Top 2.5%-7%
Top 20% worst sulfate days
Top 7%-12%
58% summer trajs
42% winter trajs
Top 12%-20%
59% summer trajs
41% winter trajs
March 15, 2004

11. IP Results General consistency between : observed sulfate
modeled “sulfate” source profiles
observed visibility
March 15, 2004

12. Source Apportionment Results
March 15, 2004

13. Dispersion Modeling CALPUFF on large Northeast Domain
MM5 meteorology processed with CALMET
NWS surface obs/Rawindsonde/ASOS data processed with CALMET
1999 NEI/2002 CEMS Emissions Inventory data
Two platforms at VT DEC and MDE/MDNR contractor
Great Gulf Wilderness
New Hampshire
March 15, 2004

14. CALPUFF Domain
March 15, 2004

15. CMAQ & REMSAD 36km National Domain/12km Northeast Subdomain
MM5 Met from UMD
MANE-VU 2002 Emissions Inventory
March 15, 2004

16. Preliminary REMSAD results
SO2 tagging: Elevated point sources from 32 eastern states only
USEPA Clear Skies [2003] 2001 “proxy” inventory
USEPA 1996 MM5 meteorology
Bar Harbor,
Maine
March 15, 2004

17. REMSAD: Tagging Results
March 15, 2004

18. REMSAD: Tagging Results
March 15, 2004

19. REMSAD: Tagging Results
March 15, 2004

20. REMSAD: Tagging Results
March 15, 2004

21. Synthesis
Goal is to provide the basis for the pollution apportionment component of state and tribal implementation plans
Synthesis of monitoring, emissions, modeling and data analysis will provide a framework for developing control strategies focused on the root problems for our region
March 15, 2004

22. Multiple Ranking Techniques
Acadia National Park, ME
March 15, 2004

23. Multiple Ranking Techniques
Brigantine Wilderness, NJ
March 15, 2004

24. Multiple Ranking Techniques
Lye Brook Wilderness, VT
March 15, 2004

25. Multiple Ranking Techniques
Shenandoah National Park, VA
March 15, 2004

26. Alternative ways view results
AVG
REMSAD
CALF_VT
CALF_MD
E/D
TR_IP
TR_CWP PA OH NY MA IN MI WV VA NC WI IL TN MD ME NH KY GA TX AL MO IA VT NJ MN CT DE SC MS LA AR RI DC
ACADIA:
Ranked contributions to annual average sulfate by multiple techniques
March 15, 2004

27. Alternative ways view results
REMSAD
CALPUFF-Obs
CALPUFF-MM5
Cluster Weighted
Probability
Q/d
Incremental Probability
Ranked contributions to annual average sulfate grouped in quintiles for each technique
March 15, 2004

28. Relative contribution of RPOs
Relative contribution of RPOs? (to sulfate only; not including Canada yet)
Acadia Brigantine Lye Brook Shenandoah
March 15, 2004

29. Lyebrook Top 20% Sulfate Incremental Probability
, Calculated at 500m, 1000m, and an average using the two heights
500 meters
1000 meters
Mixed Height
Mixed Height Calculation:
All Day Weighted Average = (((500m Sept thru May Allday_Prob)*1365)+(1000m Jun thru Aug Allday Prob)*460)))/( )
High Day Weighted Average = (((500m Sept thru May Hiday_Prob)*1365)+(1000m Jun thru Aug Hiday Prob)*460)))/( )
IncProb_mixed_ht = High Day Weighted Average – All Day Weighted Average
1365 = Number of days Sept – May
460 = Number of days Jun - Aug

30. March 15, 2004